FOBT's

[aaron1867]

I can understand what you are saying, just like I think "bloody hell my number has got to drop in soon" when I'm hundreds in.

However I already know the game is not beatable, punters going to punt I suppose!

[Tal]

Anyone who thinks most people understand probability has never seen Deal or No Deal.

Fairly sure most people ITT know one/several/far too many people who have "a system". One particular person springs to mind whose family would tell me the lad has made a small fortune playing roulette online. He's really good at it. Never seems to lose.

We all know how the story ends and there's no way of rewriting it.

It all comes back to control. If you have that, you can enjoy the slow release of your disposable income. If not...

[DungBeetle]

Love the Deal or No Deal concept.

Just stride on and give Noel numbers 1 to 5 for the opening boxes, then 6 to 10 for the next round.  No preamble.  Minimal dialogue apart from to be polite.  Just single numbers.   Dismiss the banker offers out of hand.  Then watch Noel trying to fill an hour or however long it is.

[Tal]

Julie's had three reds this week. She's due a blue.

I've lost three flips in a row with AK this week. I'm due a win.

Trap five hasn't won a race at Hove today. I'll back it in race ten.

Binocular hadn't won a single race at Hurdlewood Valley this week. I'll have him in the 3.28

The way this croupier spins it, it's come black, black, black, black. Got to be red now.

I've not even won a tenner in three months on the lottery. Not one number last week. Must be due a few quid soon.

[Kmac84]

CF do you honestly believe 99% of the posters on here understand EVNS?  I would strongly disagree with that tbh based on just what I have read. 

[arbboy]

Thing is i understand EV.  You put me on DOND and i take £90k offer when i am left 1p and 250k.  Only because i am not in the habit of having £90k at odds on 5/3 on a coin flip every day. 

[Matt.NFFC.]

EV?

[arbboy]

Thing is i understand EV.  You put me on DOND and i take £90k offer when i am left 1p and 250k.  Only because i am not in the habit of having £90k at odds of 5/3 on a coin flip every day. 

[redarmi]

Thing is i understand EV.  You put me on DOND and i take £90k offer when i am left 1p and 250k.  Only because i am not in the habit of having £90k at odds on 5/3 on a coin flip every day. 

This is why DOND is so good though.  If you have any basic understanding of probability then it is obvious that the "correct" thing to do is what Dung wrote but the correct mathematical approach isn't the correct approach for almost anybody because they don't have infinite money so the concept of marginal utility comes into play because to the individuals the first 50k is worth more than the last 50k of the 250k on offer in terms of the difference it can make to your life.  It is probably sub optimal for almost anyone to gamble to win the 250k.  For example if you were left with a decision at the end and there was 1p and 250k left.  It is obvious that the correct offer for the banker to make in terms of ev is 125k and taking anything below that gives up EV but if you are skint with a mortgage, credit cards etc and he offers 100k then that 100k is a good offer even though you are effectively leaving 25k on the table because that 100k's difference to your lifestyle is significantly more valuable than the extra 150k would be and there are costs associated with not receiving it both financially and, potentially, emotionally.  Also as Arb points out almost nobody has the bankroll to be taking a 125k bets or whatever as to do that you would probably need a 2m roll or something.  If anything people probably gamble on DOND too much imo given their personal circumstances.

[Kmac84]

What's the minimum you take on DOND? 

[mulhuzz]

What's the minimum you take on DOND? 

Assuming a straight flip between 1p and 250k and knowing that you only ever get one shot at this (no smoothing variance over a sample size...) I think I'd have a hard time turning down £50k.

Which makes me a huge mug. But a mug with £50k

I think if I'm gonna be forced to find out what's in the box id need closer to £75k though.

Nut strat is obv to set yourself up from start as a 'pure numbers' guy who will only take a fair offer from the 'banker' (read: some producer) and although they are still gonna offer less than the pure EV shot you might get offered your 'edge'.

[arbboy]

Thing is i understand EV.  You put me on DOND and i take £90k offer when i am left 1p and 250k.  Only because i am not in the habit of having £90k at odds on 5/3 on a coin flip every day. 

This is why DOND is so good though.  If you have any basic understanding of probability then it is obvious that the "correct" thing to do is what Dung wrote but the correct mathematical approach isn't the correct approach for almost anybody because they don't have infinite money so the concept of marginal utility comes into play because to the individuals the first 50k is worth more than the last 50k of the 250k on offer in terms of the difference it can make to your life.  It is probably sub optimal for almost anyone to gamble to win the 250k.  For example if you were left with a decision at the end and there was 1p and 250k left.  It is obvious that the correct offer for the banker to make in terms of ev is 125k and taking anything below that gives up EV but if you are skint with a mortgage, credit cards etc and he offers 100k then that 100k is a good offer even though you are effectively leaving 25k on the table because that 100k's difference to your lifestyle is significantly more valuable than the extra 150k would be and there are costs associated with not receiving it both financially and, potentially, emotionally.  Also as Arb points out almost nobody has the bankroll to be taking a 125k bets or whatever as to do that you would probably need a 2m roll or something.  If anything people probably gamble on DOND too much imo given their personal circumstances.

The other thing if you have £90k offer in the spot i said 250k or 1p and give up £35k in ev to take the deal i still think it's positive ev to take the £90k because if you pay off your credit cards and mortgage you will probably 'make or 'save' more than £35k in interest paid over the following 5/10 years so it's still a positive ev spot imo over the longer term.  This obviously doesn't factor in piece of mind of not having debt's etc etc which are much harder to put a value on.

As for what number i would take i think i would be pretty comfortable taking £60k in the 1p or 250k spot but i don't think you would ever need to go that low.

[gouty]

I have seen punters collect a ticket for £800 from a £20 stake and then shove the lot back in and the other score they had in their pocket at the outset. How much did he need to win to make him happy for £40?

The same people will get stuck 2k in live 1/1 ROE games then win it all back and carry on playing? Everyone else is sat with 200 or maybe a couple of nits with a monkey but even though that is -EV he will blow it all back. Do the gambling courses actually try to educate people about this? Like saying you are sat with 20 buy ins that you have bought lets get the fuck out of here?

I have worked in betting all my life apart from the last 4 months and I miss it loads. The Masters was painful to watch as it was always a big betting event and seemed not so much fun. I would say that 30,000 on the dole queue and 6,000 empty shops overnight would not be any politicians plan except Don Foster. It's his last term and he is gunning for these machines. Oh, and the treasury will get 800 million as well with the status quo.

Easily two thirds of shops will close and cripple a big lump of the stock market. It's fascinating. Big Campbell u turn coming soon or brushed under the carpet.

[Tal]

DOND derail entirely my fault. Sorry.

The nut strat IMO is to have an amount in mind that you'd be prepared to accept and take it the first time it's offered. If it doesn't go well, either adjust your figure or play on til the death. This isn't in the face of EV; it's taking all factors into account. If £25k would be a fantastic result for you, so what if you could have played on and won ten times more?

If you won £25k on roulette and the croupier then took a third of the wheel away on the £5k minimum stake wheel, would you carry on playing over there? If the answer is "Not on your nelly!", you're making the right decision in an elementary game theory sense. If your answer is "Outa my way! 8 and neighbours by a bag!", you're probably Dubai...and they'd never let him on DOND. Come to think of it, he's probably the Banker...

[arbboy]

In the detailed report i actually posted it actually stated that banning fobt's would reduce unemployment over the whole economy and be a net creator of jobs (obviously the big 4 are not keen for this information to be well known and prefer to just focus on the 30,000 jobs that will be lost in their shops as to the general economy as a whole) as the money which goes in the tills of the big four would be much better spent elsewhere by the degen's and create much more labour intensive jobs than emptying roulette machines twice a day