Re: Scoop 6, Saturday 3rd May

[Doobs]

Did I miss out Dan? Got confused by the double thread thing....in for a nifty again if I can?

If you can't get in Jeff you can have £50 of mine if you want.  Just post or pm to confirm before first race tomorrow and we can settle up next week at dtd.

I spoke to Dan last night, and he is OK with Jeff.

I suggested we put in a bit of extra money to get the lines up to a 3x3x4x4x4x4 perm.  Otherwise we would need 2 or 3 perms and it could have got messy if Dan hasn't done it before.  I thought it was better to keep it as simple as possible.  Will let him confirm when he is about.

Makes sense doobs.  How much more do we need for the easy 334444 perm after the discount is added back to the investment fund?

Dan and I took it, £50.04 me, he took the rest (£125).

Races easier this week, but the first and Thirsk could be better.

Race 1 : 2:05 Newmarket
Race 2 : 2:40 Newmarket
Race 3 : 3:00 Thirsk
Race 4 : 3:30 Goodwood
Race 5 : 3:40 Thirsk
Race 6 : 3:50 Newmarket

looks odds on to go this week

Could possibly go just 2 in the 2000?, that would mean we could smash 6 at one of the nastier races.   4x4x6x3x3x2 works out the same cost as 4x4x4x4x3x3.  meh, maybe just stick to the latter

[DMorgan]

All good to go on the money front, everyone is paid and confirmed. Doobs and I topped up to what would be a round number at £4055.04 which with the discount comes out at a total stake of £4608. Final numbers here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit#gid=0

Just need the wizards to give me some selections on Saturday morning and we're sorted

[BigAdz]

If we can get through the first 5 legs, we might have a chance.

Bloody hell they are tough races, especially at this time of year, with so many first time out.

I think the first 3 races need as many picks as we dare, after a quick look at the fields, gets a bit easier at the end imho. First race looks a total minefield!

[Omm]

is it stupid to suggest just 1 in the last race (2000g)? helps us more in the harder races and if we do get to the last race judging by what everyone is saying Kingman is the one to beat. Ignore if its a stupid suggestion.

[aaron1867]

is it stupid to suggest just 1 in the last race (2000g)? helps us more in the harder races and if we do get to the last race judging by what everyone is saying Kingman is the one to beat. Ignore if its a stupid suggestion.

I don't think it's the best idea personally. I think it might be an idea to cut the selections to two, but definitely not one.

[Doobs]

is it stupid to suggest just 1 in the last race (2000g)? helps us more in the harder races and if we do get to the last race judging by what everyone is saying Kingman is the one to beat. Ignore if its a stupid suggestion.

I don't think it's the best idea personally. I think it might be an idea to cut the selections to two, but definitely not one.

I think the optimum is probably two.  Don't think there is much in it.  I suspect we are probably more likely to double are number of place pools by adding Australia to kingman than adding another 3 worse donkeys to 3 better donkeys in a crapshoot.  I think the maths swings the other way if we add War Command

[BigAdz]

One point to consider is the Guineas  is the last race.

If we went into it with one horse, we could all stick in a rather large lay bet on our selection?

[aaron1867]

One point to consider is the Guineas  is the last race.

If we went into it with one horse, we could all stick in a rather large lay bet on our selection?

I would assume this would need a very hefty amount of money anyway, surely?

[Chompy]

One point to consider is the Guineas  is the last race.

If we went into it with one horse, we could all stick in a rather large lay bet on our selection?

Does anyone present have that sort of £££ in betty or betquack?

[Doobs]

One point to consider is the Guineas  is the last race.

If we went into it with one horse, we could all stick in a rather large lay bet on our selection?

Does anyone present have that sort of £££ in betty or betquack?

just done a withdrawal, could currently lay about a grand of the 5 milli.  little acorns and all that.  Suspect Arbboy has got me beat these days

[BigAdz]

One point to consider is the Guineas  is the last race.

If we went into it with one horse, we could all stick in a rather large lay bet on our selection?

Does anyone present have that sort of £££ in betty or betquack?

I probably wasnt thinking as big as u Chompy. What I am saying though is if we get through to leg 6, number of tickets are bound to be announced and the potential payout, thus giving you a chance to calculate ur potential upside and therefore cover for a few grand.

Just chucking ideas about.

[BigAdz]

Some blatant plagerism form the Trends boys that may help us with some difficult decisions.

SUFFOLK HANDICAP (2.05 Newmarket)

There have been 9 runnings of this race.

All 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
All 9 winners were drawn 1 -10
All 9 winners carried 8-05 or more
All 9 winners were within 5-24lbs of the bottom weight
All 9 winners were rated 86 or higher
8 of the 9 winners carried 8-05 – 9-00
8 of the 9 winners were rated 86-95
8 of the 9 winners were 4 or 5yo (plus a 7yo)
7 of the 9 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (all 21 horses who finished 3rd last time out have been beaten)
All 20 horses that were dropped in class from their previous start were beaten
All 16 horses that sported headgear were beaten
8 of the 9 winners and 24 of the 32 win and placed horses had their last run in either the previous 15 days or 6-8 months ago.

PALACE HOUSE STAKES (2.40 Newmarket)

 All of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 5 on their last run
Every winner since 1999 has been rated at least 103
Since 1979 only 1 horse has managed to win aged over 6yo

THIRSK HUNT CUP (3.40 Thirsk)

All of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
All of the last 10 winners were aged 4-6yo
All of the last 10 winners had their last run in a handicap
All of the last 10 winners had been rested at least 11 days since their last run
9 of the last 10 winners were rated 86-92 (plus 100 rated Farrh)
All 27 horses dropping down in trip from their last run have been beaten
All 8 female runners have finished unplaced
9 of the 10 winners were drawn 6 or higher
5lb claimers have had 3 winners and 3 places from 12 rides
6 of the last 10 winners and a further 5 placed horses had their last run on the Saturday two weeks previous

[Chompy]

Race 1 : 2:05 Newmarket

Yikes! Looks a good spot to just stick with those at the top of the market. A straight 1m1f is specialists' territory but there are no C&D winners in here and, with 19 runners, it's unlikely they'll form two groups. Big Baz has to go in imo, as I think he'll improve for having a good pace to chase. William Carrotcruncher likes him a lot, not that that's any real guide.

Race 2 : 2:40 Newmarket
Boring but Sole Power and Pearl Secret are both solid.

Race 3 : 3:00 Thirsk
This is not as strong as the race Music In The Rain won at Catterick, so he's in obv. Desert Creek was drawn away from the action last time, is fairly drawn and fairly handicapped.

Race 4 : 3:30 Goodwood
The stalls are on the stands' side (high) and, on slow ground, I'd rather be drawn near the rail and not too far off the pace. Kyleakin Lass has to go in on that basis.

Race 5 : 3:40 Thirsk
Farlow from 5 and Norse Blues from 4 for me. There's often a progressive handicapper in this but not so much this time. They'll go pretty hard I think, with Trail Blaze in 1 and a few unlikely to leave him to it, but you don't really want to get too far behind and luck IR plays a big part.

Race 6 : 3:50 Newmarket
Be happy to stick with Kingman and Australia. If we get this far, having a 7/4 and a 3/1 shot running for us makes most sense.

[Chompy]

What do those trends throw up adzy?

[redarmi]

As much as I don't particularly fancy Kingman and Australia (see TfT) going with just those two is clearly the route to go so we can hedge if we are in decent shape.  Pretty sure we will be able to hedge 5k or so if we need to and as anyone that has met argueboy will have been told 3 times within quarter of an hour of meeting him he is on 2% (or close) with Betfair which is optimal.