Re: Scoop 6, Saturday 3rd May

[Doobs]

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

[Doobs]

Where we definitely need help is differentiating between a bunch of horses that are 8/1 to 12/1 chances.  Getting those right wins the day.  Chompy and Neil and the like are way ahead of me there and I recognise that.  Two or three shock results get everyone but you do to win a million when you gave picked 2 33/1 chances and 4 10/1 chances you want 20 million. 

This is what Red Armi is getting at. 

[arbboy]

Where we definitely need help is differentiating between a bunch of horses that are 8/1 to 12/1 chances.  Getting those right wins the day.  Chompy and Neil and the like are way ahead of me there and I recognise that.  Two or three shock results get everyone but you do to win a million when you gave picked 2 33/1 chances and 4 10/1 chances you want 20 million.  

This is what Red Armi is getting at.  

This is definitely the key without having to know a thing about horse racing.  It's a 3 way combo of game theory, maths and horse racing form knowledge.

[The Camel]

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

Every time I have taken notice of the SCOOP6 or Tote Jackpot when it's gotten huge, when loads of short priced horses win, the SP acca is bigger than the pool return.

It's like if the lottery numbers came out 1,2,3,47,48,49. It would pay peanuts.

[BigAdz]

Just noticed Paul Kealey, who seems to be The Man these days, is very keen on Faraaj in the first too. I would be loathe to ignore him.

[Doobs]

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

Every time I have taken notice of the SCOOP6 or Tote Jackpot when it's gotten huge, when loads of short priced horses win, the SP acca is bigger than the pool return.

It's like if the lottery numbers came out 1,2,3,47,48,49. It would pay peanuts.

You aren't saying anything I don't know.  6 faves is a bad result, but you need the favourites in the perm to pick the line with a few short ones, and a few longer ones.  We don't know right now which shorter ones will win, so we put them all in.

Anyway I am on holiday need to spend some time on the perm, not arguing the known optimal strategy.  

[The Camel]

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

Every time I have taken notice of the SCOOP6 or Tote Jackpot when it's gotten huge, when loads of short priced horses win, the SP acca is bigger than the pool return.

It's like if the lottery numbers came out 1,2,3,47,48,49. It would pay peanuts.

You aren't saying anything I don't know.  6 faves is a bad result, but you need the favourites in the perm to pick the line with a few short ones, and a few longer ones.  We don't know right now which shorter ones will win, so we put them all in.

Anyway I am on holiday need to spend some time on the perm, not arguing the known optimal strategy.  

It's gambling.

We know all the favourites coming in is a bad result, so we decide which 2 or 3 are weakest and leave them out so we can have more selections in those races.

Seems not much like rocket science to me.

[Kmac84]

Surley if picking favs is the best way then the scoop6 would have been won before it got this big?  

Looking at the results for ths scoop races in the last few weeks they have hardly been dominated by favorites.  

Obvs I'm not involved but I am pretty sure I would rather go with good form judges picks than just bet a few at the front of the market.  

[aaron1867]

I'm only in for a measley £20 as its likely to be burning money. But we surely can't pick 6 favs & in the lottery races just for for the 8-16/1 shots that we think won't be far away.

[The Camel]

It's a bit too late to be having this conversation now I think.

I'm just going to have a crack using my faulty method rather than Doobs optimal strategy.

[Kmac84]

It's a bit too late to be having this conversation now I think.

I'm just going to have a crack using my faulty method rather than Doobs optimal strategy.

In for a score :-)

[arbboy]

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

i think its important to remember when we are saying 'short priced horses' here they are actually still 8/1 10/1 12/1 in the majority of these scoop 6 races.

[BigAdz]

It's a bit too late to be having this conversation now I think.

I'm just going to have a crack using my faulty method rather than Doobs optimal strategy.

Will there not be thousands of geeks out there doing the same thing? And if its the Optimal Strategy, that would suggest all the same horses will be picked.....or thats how this idiot reads it anyway!

[Doobs]

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

i think its important to remember when we are saying 'short priced horses' here they are actually still 8/1 10/1 12/1 in the majority of these scoop 6 races.

This, I think it just isn't very clear what happened unless you looked at last week's perm. 

FWIW We left out 2 favourites at the time of doing the perm last week that we thought were weak (each of the 2 races had 5 or 6 horses around the same price).  I think we ended up with all 6 favourites, but that is just the way it goes. 

[arbboy]

As a side issue how many perms will there be done tomorrow that are bigger than ours in size?  I have no idea was wondering what everyone thought?