Re: Scoop 6, Saturday 3rd May

[BigAdz]

As a side issue how many perms will there be done tomorrow that are bigger than ours in size?  I have no idea was wondering what everyone thought?

Hundreds if not thousands.

I also have a ton in one at my golf club with 50 or so in it, and another nifty with ten mates. Can't imagine it's only us yokels going mad for it.

[The Camel]

If I had £2000 to throw away on this my perm would be something like: 10x8x5x2x1x1

Much more likely to win it alone and get full value out of the bet imo.

[arbboy]

The bigger the rollover gets the more you should include the most likely winners because every week it grows the more 'dead money' you are trying to pick off the floor.

[The Camel]

The bigger the rollover gets the more you should include the most likely winners because every week it grows the more 'dead money' you are trying to pick off the floor.

True.

But in my experience the more favourites that win, the more chance the payoff is < than an SP acca.

If 4+ favourites win tomorrow, I would take evens the SP accumulator would pay more.

[Bad Beat]

 Place it on Lucky Dan.

[Karabiner]

The irony is, I dont look at prices until I have made a selection and then see if it is priced accordingly, as its a permed multi, I hadnt even looked at prices.

As it happens 5 ARE favs and 4 second favs....so have I read your post wrong and you advocate backing just outsiders Horsey?

He is agreeing with you, Adz, the way I read his post.

Reckon Mrs Adz burned his tea

I'd be surprised if that wasn't deliberate.

 

[Doobs]

Place it on Lucky Dan.

Place what on lucky dan?

About to send a pm to you and pickers 

[Doobs]

The bigger the rollover gets the more you should include the most likely winners because every week it grows the more 'dead money' you are trying to pick off the floor.

True.

But in my experience the more favourites that win, the more chance the payoff is < than an SP acca.

If 4+ favourites win tomorrow, I would take evens the SP accumulator would pay more.

I'll take your £50 if you don't like it. 

Cheers

[The Camel]

Place it on Lucky Dan.

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/an-kumItY427hbJmm/the_sting_1973_the_sting_part_2/

I just noticed when they are arguing about whether Paul Newman takes the bet or not, the blower falls silent.

[The Camel]

The bigger the rollover gets the more you should include the most likely winners because every week it grows the more 'dead money' you are trying to pick off the floor.

True.

But in my experience the more favourites that win, the more chance the payoff is < than an SP acca.

If 4+ favourites win tomorrow, I would take evens the SP accumulator would pay more.

I'll take your £50 if you don't like it. 

Cheers

No need to get arsey.

Just banter innit.

[redarmi]

I don't really have time to go into much detail as I have just finished three days of travelling and have to do the football and racing cards for tomorrow but I think the analysis on the strategy here is focussing way too much on winning it alone.  There is more to the scoop than that.  For a start even if it pays less than the acca that doesn't take into consideration the ev you get from the bonus race which is a lot of where the value is.  Also it ignores the possible place returns which reduce the variance for you.  You really want to give yourself the best possible chance of getting a piece of the pie.  Whilst it would be nice to win the lot it isn't the be all of the bet in fact I would say that the fact people get preoccupied by that means that there is more value at the front of the market relatively speaking.

[Bad Beat]

 Doobs and Red have, not for the 1st time, nailed it. We are doing this because there is a carry-over and a load of dead money. It is criminal to lose it by missing out an 11/4 chance because you added a 16/1 shot to try and win more. The bonus is also a really important part of the bet.

 I haven't looked at the races in any great depth so far, if I see something I think is relevant I'll mention tomorrow, but generally I thought the perm last week was great. I don't really like Kingman or Australia at the prices in the Guineas but I think for this bet 100% you take the two and no others. If you get into a hedge spot then betting the next three 1/4 123 is a great way to do that.

 I quite like having a 2nd perm for a hundred or so if the numbers work out, possibly with a slightly different attitude, but generally the reason you get these syndicates together is to give yourself the maximum chance of winning it.

 

[Doobs]

Doobs and Red have, not for the 1st time, nailed it. We are doing this because there is a carry-over and a load of dead money. It is criminal to lose it by missing out an 11/4 chance because you added a 16/1 shot to try and win more. The bonus is also a really important part of the bet.

 I haven't looked at the races in any great depth so far, if I see something I think is relevant I'll mention tomorrow, but generally I thought the perm last week was great. I don't really like Kingman or Australia at the prices in the Guineas but I think for this bet 100% you take the two and no others. If you get into a hedge spot then betting the next three 1/4 123 is a great way to do that.

 I quite like having a 2nd perm for a hundred or so if the numbers work out, possibly with a slightly different attitude, but generally the reason you get these syndicates together is to give yourself the maximum chance of winning it.

 

I actually like the £100 extra bet Chompy suggested, but we adjusted the money last night to make it right.  I don't want to be complicating it now.  If it was all my own money and I was putting the bet on I would do it.

I like the hedging strategy, but is going to be tough organising the cash and getting an ok over the whole syndicate at this late stage.  I suggest it is better that people do their own hedging if we get there. 

[Junior Senior]

Feel very happy to have some top brains on this investing my £30.
Cheers guys and good luck us

[DMorgan]

I'll be around from 8am tomorrow for whoever wants to PM me the final perm