Re: Scoop 6, Saturday 3rd May

[TightEnd]

can you stick the placed perms up please when done?

ty

[Knottikay]

This is like the old FA CUP Final days, waiting for the team sheets two hours before KO.

[Doobs]

Was going to send about now.   

Not sure why you put that up here?  That isn't what I sent out

[George2Loose]

Thanks to those who have put their time and effort into this. Much appreciated

[sovietsong]

Thanks to those who have put their time and effort into this. Much appreciated

[BigAdz]

No doubt I will get flamed, but just a few thoughts on this.

Whilst I appreciate that following the market makes sense from a maths perspective and the dead money reasoning, I doubt we shall get remotely rich even if we win today, from the final perm I saw. I never expected to join the Rich List if we won, but hoped to benefit from some real racing knowledge being applied to this.

Having just seen the other syndicates selections I am involved in, they are very very similar, with all the focus at the head of the market. I suspect that many many others will be just as "logical"

I must confess that with 6/7 very, very sharp horseracing minds on here, it's sad we couldn't have found a few more of these horses that weren't quite so obvious, and maybe given us a chance at scooping the lot. We don't seem to have uncovered any horses that were mispriced, as was mentioned on several occasions in the thread

I have no doubt others spent as many hours on it as myself, but our final selections feel a bit lazy in the end. Lets remember, the scoop has got so big because the results have included big priced winners on a regular basis.

Right, grizzle over, lets hope I am eating stacks of humble pie at 4pm and we are organising a trip to the races next week! GL us.

[action man]

here is my teams perm pretty agressive strat going 4x2x2x2x2x4  but i quite like night of thunder to cause an upset in the guinees. Will you put your perm up here so i can sweat it when mine is down plz?

1,5,10,15
7,9
8,9
2,3
4,7
1,5,8,14

[Bad Beat]

Adz the reason that the Scoop is a value bet is that there is dead money in it. You are using your bullets to find the 6-winners against people whose bullets have been spent (they put there money in over the past few weeks and that money is gone). The way you get that money is by winning it. The aim is not to outsmart the new money that comes in this week but to simply win it. The value you get for doing that comes from the dead money and the huge bonus fund. This value way exceeds any value you can get by outsmarting the other people who join this week. Luckily some of those people also don't get it so you get value from them too.

 This stuff is not subjective, the guys know the correct strategy.

[Doobs]

I have sent a perm to Dan.  Not sure if he has put Chompy's on.  If he has it is no big deal.  Puts it all on Chompy, so I can just sit back and criticise.

Thanks for all selectors (Chompy, Adz and Neil).  I have added precisely 2 myself.  Tried to take everything on board, but it is hard to please everyone. 

Cheers to Dan for collecting and putting on the bet.

Let's get this won, but if we don't lets just get through race 1.

[BigAdz]

Adz the reason that the Scoop is a value bet is that there is dead money in it. You are using your bullets to find the 6-winners against people whose bullets have been spent (they put there money in over the past few weeks and that money is gone). The way you get that money is by winning it. The aim is not to outsmart the new money that comes in this week but to simply win it. The value you get for doing that comes from the dead money and the huge bonus fund. This value way exceeds any value you can get by outsmarting the other people who join this week. Luckily some of those people also don't get it so you get value from them too.

 This stuff is not subjective, the guys know the correct strategy.

Hi Neil.

I totally understand we are trying to win the dead stuff, it's not a question that I don't get it. I was simply hoping that with all the knowledge at our disposal could have been used to better effect, and incorporate some less fundamental thinking. Essentially I will always be a horse form/hunch man over a maths man when it come to betting the nags. If the maths always won out, it would be easy and everyone would do it. I think you know what I mean.
Our selections feel like Andy Capp could have circled the first five in The Sun for each race, to get the same results hours of study did.

Done now, so lets move on

[Bad Beat]

 That would be like getting a bunch of the world's best blackjack players in a room and suggesting that we never hit 16 as we want to make the game more interesting.

 The people who have invested in this that have no understanding of how the bet works or about horse racing surely deserve for their money to be used in the optimum way. To pick a few 20/1 shots to make it more fun would be mismanaging their money imo.

 

[Chompy]

Was going to send about now.   

Not sure why you put that up here?  That isn't what I sent out

Sorry, thought you were at Centerparcs all day and out of reach. You said you were sending to Dan first thing.

[sovietsong]

I am very happy to let the experts make the picks, it would be my suggestion that if you aren't happy then don't invest.

[Chompy]

Desert Creek (No.14) is a non-runner in Race 3. Replace with no.11 Fieldgunner Kirkup.

[Doobs]

I think this is kind of misrepresenting the perm anyway.  There are a couple of races where we have the first 2 or 3, and it feels obvious in those races. Others we haven't done that.  I am fairly sure there are 14/1 and 16/1 chances in the one I have just sent in, just not the real long shots.  And we have also ducked a few 7/1 chances too.