Re: Scoop 6, Saturday 3rd May

[claypole]

Can tell he's a feel punter not a maths punter.....

TFT syndycate in dor Trigg with large transfer fee for next week

[DMorgan]

Happy to collect again since everyone has the details

[ripple11]

Happy to collect again since everyone has the details

Thanks Dan 

[rivher]

Second post in 8 years, to say thanks to whoever for organising this!

I'm in it via Marky 147.

And Adz shutup

[BigAdz]

Second post in 8 years, to say thanks to whoever for organising this!

I'm in it via Marky 147.

And Adz shutup

Oh ffs, another lunatic in the asylum.

[action man]

here is my teams perm pretty agressive strat going 4x2x2x2x2x4  but i quite like night of thunder to cause an upset in the guinees. Will you put your perm up here so i can sweat it when mine is down plz?

1,5,10,15
7,9
8,9
2,3
4,7
1,5,8,14

didnt have a penny on this thing after the write up lol

[rivher]

Second post in 8 years, to say thanks to whoever for organising this!

I'm in it via Marky 147.

And Adz shutup

Oh ffs, another lunatic in the asylum.

Well I thought you might need someone to argue with Adam?

Clearly you're ok though on that score!

[cheapwetsuit]

Happy to collect again since everyone has the details

Thanks Dan 

Cheers Dan. You know we can't say no. £6 million next week?

[Marky147]

here is my teams perm pretty agressive strat going 4x2x2x2x2x4  but i quite like night of thunder to cause an upset in the guinees. Will you put your perm up here so i can sweat it when mine is down plz?

1,5,10,15
7,9
8,9
2,3
4,7
1,5,8,14

didnt have a penny on this thing after the write up lol

Just tax a % of Shaun's

Just tax Shaun

[BigAdz]

In attempting to prove I'm not on the wind up, and maybe to understand some principles better for myself, let me explain why I felt our optimal strategy needed a complimentary approach, shall we say.

I wont be using any x over y with brackets, or to the power of, as I dont follow that stuff. I was a words and history boy at school.

I said I understood the optimal strategy, well, , in broad terms, ie, giving ourselves the best chance to win given a long terms set of circumstances, which in this case is backing front of the market, because the favourites are the favourites for a reason. I hope that makes sense. If that isn't right then the rest below is even more wrong and a waste of time, and I will look even more foolish(used to that).

I digress for a moment. In our local card game we play weekly for the last 20 plus years, same 8-10 mates, we have a mate called Damien(The Omen, we call him), owns an Accountancy practice with 30 employees, for context,  and he is the unluckiest person I know at cards. We are all pretty much the same players, all ABC, never read a poker book or taken instruction, all would have been seen as good ten years ago etc, but useless now. Week in week out when the chips go in if Damien has the draw vs a made hand, he never gets there. if he has the made hand vs a draw, the draw always gets there. For a few years it was funny, as we all talked varience, and it would level out etc etc. It never has. of course he wins once in a blue moon, but he still gets by far the worst of it week in week out. Its scary. If he were to win for the next 19 and a half years straight, he will draw level we reckon. Realistically varience wont have enough time to balance out for Omen, as he is 50.

That is part of my point that maybe I don't understand properly. Yes, given a lifetime, playing that optimal strategy will mean we win. I suspect thousands of other "optimal strategists" adopted the same policy( therefore reducing the potential final payout massively), much as I understand our maths boys know their stuff, if the formulae for the optimal strategy is so commonly know, then everyone will be using it, and if there are certain tweaks to make it slightly better, I dont think our forum is a playground for budding Stephen Hawkings, ie there are probably plenty out there better(if it can be bettered?!) Get my drift?

So having established, if we are the be all at Optimal strategy, then so will many others, and if anything, there will be others out there better.

Despite all this I still agree we needed it covered.

What I wanted to see was the Horse racing skills brought to the fore, which is our definite forte. A situation perhaps where all the HR guys were asked to look at the race the way they would any other( If it were Cheltenham, you would never have seen Neil putting up those sort of selections, he would have been looking to weed out the longer price ones). Strangely, the only evidence I saw of that was Chompys pick in the first, that won!
Maybe after we had all done this we could have compared and if we agreed on one of these outsiders, included them in the perm, or a smaller perm. If you have got this far, you surely understand me here?!

All I felt was there was room to exploit the clear edge we do have over the vast majority of other syndicates, if wasn't a slight on anyone here, even if it was considered one.  If I am a donkey, so be it, but hopefully, you understand my angle better. I shall have a token interest next week(would hate to not be in it if you won), but find a better place for my limited talent elsewhere, for the rest. GL

[Kmac84]

As someone who had no interest in this stake I totally agree with Adz.  I think too much of the time we get bogged down in Maths on here, what ever happened to feel and knowledge of the sport.  We are assuming that every market is correct and that the favourites always have the best chance of winning.  If that was the case we'd all be minted and the bookies would be skint no?

In if Adz and Camel stick up an alternative pool. 

[Chompy]

This is all theory Adz and none of it was applicable to yesterday's Scoop6 races.

I spent a few hours going through them and put forward what I fancied. These are tough handicaps full of exposed horses. The prices are invariably correct and the horses with the best chances will be towards the head of the market.

It will be the same next weekend. There's so much dead money in the pool and so much more will be added that there won't be any point looking too far beyond the obvious.

We shouldn't be looking to scoop the lot with a load of 25-1 shots. If we do that we'd be better off sticking combination accas on and the chances are we'll crash either in race 1 or race 2 anyway.

[Karabiner]

I think that Adz's theory works perfectly had it not been a rollover.

Because of the huge amount of dead money just sitting there, I would say that a different and possibly more maths-orientated approach is almost certainly the best strategy to take advantage in a rollover situation, but I'm sure this point was covered earlier.

The downside of this is that we are unlikely to scoop the lot.

[BigAdz]

See, thats what I dont get Chomps.

You say its all theory, and then its not applicable, but I got the feeling Argueboy was ridiculing me for exactly that!!

My point was that the reason the scoop keeps getting bigger is due to a few rags coming in. It happened again. We are fishing in the same ponds as every other bugger.

In the end your theory will be right when all the favs come in and everyone scoops a decent amount(probably what they put in), but so will everyone else. And each passing week it is likely to happen. In the intervening weeks when the big prices come in, I am right, but still branded the village idiot.

I think a fair few people on here are approaching this as a lottery hoping we have a knowledgeable edge, not joining one big maths exercise which can be solved, that thousands of others are likely to solve too.

[blueace]

In for next week , thanks all for input. How about 10 or 20% of fund go towards combi accum taking in big prices and optimum strategy for scoop... Whatever, I'm in ...