Scoop 6, Saturday 10th May. Third time lucky? CLOSING DEADLINE 8pm FRIDAY

[Doobs]

haydock 1.50
lingfield 2.20
ascot 2.40
notts 2.45
haydock 3.30
ascot 3.50

I have had a look at these now.  1st race isn't going to be terrible, 2nd and 3rd aren't nearly as bad as expected.  5 could be fine.  4 looks a bit nasty.  6 is as bad as it gets.

Virtually impossible man needs to get out more.  Think the win is probably odds against, but it can't be much more than that with 2/3 million entries or so. 

[horseplayer]

James knight?

hardly use him as a good source of anything apart from stating how great Coral are and fobts

[action man]

1st looks awful to me

[BigAdz]

L'unique (4/1), Big Hands Harry (11/2), Join The Clan (7/1),

Casual Smile (11/4), Queen's Prize (7/2), Island Remede (5/1)

Pether's Moon (3/1), Harris Tweed (4/1), Gatewood (5/1)

Point North (7/1), Taurus Twins (15/2), Angel Way (8/1)

Vibrato Valtat (7/2), Dubawi Island (6/1), Titus Bolt (7/1),

Purcell (10/1), Ayaar (12/1), Brownsea Brink (12/1), Glen Moss (12/1)


There you go boys, predicted SPs from SL. Job done in 2mins.

[Chompy]

James knight?

hardly use him as a good source of anything apart from stating how great Coral are and fobts

Likewise. Seems to get a lot of press given he compiles for a non-bookmaker.

[Chompy]

1.50 Hayd - Twig-hoppers, no idea.

2.20 Ling - Casual Smile is liable to start a clear favourite after Taghrooda's Newmarket work last weekend. Queen's Prize should be fine on slower ground on the dam's side but I've never liked Dansili's on it. Wouldn't be surprised to see Casual Smile start below 2/1, so don't think we need more than two or three in here.

2.40 Asc - I'd be worried about Pether's Moon on the ground and he might not run. He's keen and this could become a stamina test with Harris Tweed in the field.

2.45 Nott - There's a big-field sprint being run here tonight that might throw up some draw clues. Won't look at the race until after that.

3.30 Hayd - Twig-hoppers again.

3.50 Asc - Only Dream Tune raced up the far side (low) in this last year and he might have won it had his jockey not bottled it and come to join the others. That strip of ground has been best at this meeting in recent times (first three drawn 2, 1, 5 on soft in 2012) and it should be again after the recent rain. So I'd be inclined to try and narrow things down by looking mainly at runners drawn in single figures. Loving Spirit has to go in from 7, likewise Flyman from 3. Bertie Whittle (2) has a cracking record over C&D. Capo Rosso (9) might be the one to lead that side but I'd be worried about the ground for him. Purcell (10) and Brownsea Brink (13) are drawn low enough to go far side if that's what they want to do.

[action man]

GOOD GOD ITS IMPOSSIBLE!!

[action man]

GOOD GOD ITS IMPOSSIBLE!!

shortlisted, 5, 3,3,4  and havent got to the two toughest and biggest fields yet

[RickBFA]

Dan, please amend my contribution to £200. I'll PM you. Thanks

[mondatoo]

Interested lurker...

Is there not a point were the races are that terrible that you should fade the bet ?

[Doobs]

Interested lurker...

Is there not a point were the races are that terrible that you should fade the bet ?

Definitely don't think it is.  Think the Oaks trial helps a lot.  If we can get 6 horses av price about 10/1, it is winnable in my book.  You can't win a million if there is some difficulty involved. 

[mondatoo]

Interested lurker...

Is there not a point were the races are that terrible that you should fade the bet ?

Definitely don't think it is.  Think the Oaks trial helps a lot.  If we can get 6 horses av price about 10/1, it is winnable in my book.  You can't win a million if there is some difficulty involved. 

Just interested in the value of the bet in relation to the toughness of the racing.

Pretty tough to mathematically prove though, I'd imagine.

[Kmac84]

£7 million estimated in the win pool and jackpot. 

[Doobs]

Interested lurker...

Is there not a point were the races are that terrible that you should fade the bet ?

Definitely don't think it is.  Think the Oaks trial helps a lot.  If we can get 6 horses av price about 10/1, it is winnable in my book.  You can't win a million if there is some difficulty involved.  

Just interested in the value of the bet in relation to the toughness of the racing.

Pretty tough to mathematically prove though, I'd imagine.

There is 3 million or so rollover money in the pool.  Adds a lot of value.  If you get a line that shares the win then that 3 million makes the difference.  Don't see any point in including a bunch of lines that are 10m/1 to win when the max we get is 3 or 4 million on the week and 3m on the bonus.  Just for the benefit of doubt we absolutely aren't doing the first 3 in the betting in every race and we haven't done that the last 2 weeks either.

Anyway we need to move on and not do this argument on a Friday night.  It is absolutely the worst time to do it.  Hope people can respect that.  

[Tal]

Still time, lurker...