Facing big river raise

[shipitgood]

3 handed at 20nl.

I'm in the sb with  

Button 3 xes to 60p, i make it £2.8 (he doesnt really fold pre to a 3 bet)

Flop  

I check villian checks

Turn is  

I checked.

Not sure if it's better to bet here, or check call let him have a wee stab at it. I have the best hand here a lot. I was thinking if i bet he's folding most holdings, check and maybe let him bluff.

He checks behind.

River is  

I bet quite small, half pot £3. Villian puts in a big raise to £15 total.

I'm never folding here, the only hand he can have here is a rivered set/ fh, big spade.

I'm never folding here, villian will over play hands and overestimate the strength of his hand. If he had a Set prior to river or trips, i would have known about it.

In the end i just call. Only hand that beats me is 66. Can we ever raise here? He could call with a worse flush, i know it looks like a shooty in call, but is there ever any merit in raising here against this vilian.

It's a big bet to.

Would you bet the turn?

[shipitgood]

That was a bit rambling, short but sweet.

Flop; Bet or Check? Sometimes i do, sometimes i don't, eg Kings and Ace comes out

Turn; Prob should be a bet to be fair.

River, can we raise? Probably not, in saying that he can only have 66, or 99?? that beats us.** In my opinion:)

[Honeybadger]

You can't really 3bet the river here. It is not just about thinking you are probably ahead, you've got to think "if I 3bet and get called am I ahead more than half the time?"

[mulhuzz]

Flop is a slam dunk bet vs someone who doesn't fold to 3b.

Turn can prolly go either way. River I think a lot closer than you imagine (depends on villain).

Villain as described rarely has a worse flush here IMO (love pressing call ldo and I think villains who have a flush here are far more likely to have shoved not just 5xd) so question is whether he can ever be bluffing.

I can count on less than one finger the number of river bluffs I've seen at 20nl next door from an unknown.

[Honeybadger]

Flop is a slam dunk bet vs someone who doesn't fold to 3b.

Don't agree that this is a slam dunk bet on the flop. Better to check-call majority of the time.

Agree that river is closer than OP thinks as regards being beaten.

[muckthenuts]

Hey Larson,

I like pre given your read. It's good to keep an eye on these things and go as big as you think you can get called.

Agree with honeybadger thoughts on flop.

I think checking calling turn is cool esp with the spade back up. I don't feel like there's a ton of value to be missed by checking this street but we can widen our villains betting range this way and perhaps let him pick something up that might pay off one street otr.   

River is deffo a fold to this sizing, and actually to most raise sizes. You can be beat by more than 66 fwiw.

[pleno1]

yeh very bad flop to bet vs somebody who doesnt fold to 3bets. not only will they not call with worse hand very often, they can jsut pairs and draws.

[AlexMartin]

Flop is a slam dunk bet vs someone who doesn't fold to 3b.

Turn can prolly go either way. River I think a lot closer than you imagine (depends on villain).

Villain as described rarely has a worse flush here IMO (love pressing call ldo and I think villains who have a flush here are far more likely to have shoved not just 5xd) so question is whether he can ever be bluffing.

I can count on less than one finger the number of river bluffs I've seen at 20nl next door from an unknown.

why?

[shipitgood]

I called, opponent had QsJh.

Wondering about raising was just a bit results orientated in the aftermath. It is the one hand he could potentially call a river raise with, although clearly most would fold Q of S here.

I suspect given the size of raise, he could well call here with the Q of S, possibly even J s.

Though he can easily have 66 here as played. So defo just a call on the river.

Against this villian, i don't think we can fold ever (as the hands played out) he can over value hands, enough of the time he doesn't have a house here.

[SuuPRlim]

I would imagine folding the river is better than raising, raising seems like a very bad decision.

[mulhuzz]

Flop is a slam dunk bet vs someone who doesn't fold to 3b.

Turn can prolly go either way. River I think a lot closer than you imagine (depends on villain).

Villain as described rarely has a worse flush here IMO (love pressing call ldo and I think villains who have a flush here are far more likely to have shoved not just 5xd) so question is whether he can ever be bluffing.

I can count on less than one finger the number of river bluffs I've seen at 20nl next door from an unknown.

why?

Love pressing call, right?

Maybe it's not a bet though but I'm betting this close to 100 as I never have bluffs vs someone who doesn't fold so I don't want to check call things that aren't Aces without also check calling some stuff that it aces and since villain likes to press call I think we might as well just bet.

Maybe that's perverse tho.

[SuuPRlim]

Gotta consider as well though that as he is pretty much getting the the flop with 90% of his BTN opening range a LOT of his hands can't call a bet, but might very well decide to bluff and those times will be a great spot for us cos hell be putting money in with absolutely terrible equity.

When he decides not to bluff that's not much of an issue give how slim equity those hands will have anyways.