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Poker Hand Analysis
Couple of hands from WSOP Events
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Topic: Couple of hands from WSOP Events (Read 3127 times)
Gamblor21
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Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
on:
July 21, 2014, 05:02:57 PM »
Interested to see how people would've played these hands.
WSOP Monster Stack
Day 2 with about 1500 people left. Chipped up to about 100k from about 40k at the start of the day. Not shown any hands of note down and have a pretty good TAG image I'd say. Blinds are 1k/2k and American guy who has been up and down all day has just had a big double to get himself near 200K opens to 5k from early position, button who is young American and just moved to table with 250k calls. I'm in the SB and call with
Flop is
I check to initial raiser who bets 15k pretty quickly and button flats after dwell.
How do you play it from here?
WSOP $10k PLO
We're about 2 hours before the end of day 1, got my stack up to about 75k from and no one has seen me get out of line (bluffs have got through and had the goods when called). Blinds are 600/1200 and about to go 800/1600. Oldish American guy who has limped a fair amount, with one limp allin trick. He has 30k+ and limps, button young active/good russian lad raises to 3100 from 80k, asian lady in SB who has been pretty passive/tight calls from SB from 50k I'm in BB with
How do you play it from here?
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GreekStein
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #1 on:
July 21, 2014, 05:18:18 PM »
Hand 1 I would fold pre.
Hand 2 I would call
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muckthenuts
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #2 on:
July 21, 2014, 05:29:14 PM »
Hand 1 i'd probably call and try to realise equity 3way mostly because stack sizes are a little awkward. i.e. jamming feels too big/unbelievable, and if we're raising flop from 15k to say 40k then we have only ~55k to jam turn and villain/s are getting a great price on all fronts when our range is draws/sets only. Also the flop bet sizing from OR leads me to believe he could have a strong range here? It could be an ok spot to raise if despite this you think we can get him to fold as high as like JJ here and the BTN cause of the action/dwell never has a hand, but as i said stack sizes just feel a little awkward.
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Gamblor21
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #3 on:
July 21, 2014, 08:47:25 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on July 21, 2014, 05:18:18 PM
Hand 1 I would fold pre.
Hand 2 I would call
Hand 1 - What are you calling with?
Hand 2 - What is minimum you call with and what do you raise with?
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SuuPRlim
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #4 on:
July 22, 2014, 09:17:35 AM »
Hand 2 I think just calling is your only option. Raising is very high variance as we'd have to fold to a further raise pre-flop which denies us the chance to take a really good nutty hand to a flop 4way with two perceivably weaker players in the hand, if we pot and get called by the first guy then everyone will call and there will be a psb back forcing us to jam and pray on most flops (fine in a 6m cash game, sits a lot worse with me in a FR tournament)
Obviously advantages to squeezing are we can win a very big pot, and we might be able to get AI vs the limper with a 15% overlay which is just about ok. We also might squeeze the good btn player out of the pot but to many ifs whathaves and buts for me I think calling is defo the best play.
Hand 1 could we r/f (like a semi bluff?)
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Gamblor21
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #5 on:
July 22, 2014, 11:07:54 AM »
Quote from: SuuPRlim on July 22, 2014, 09:17:35 AM
Hand 2 I think just calling is your only option. Raising is very high variance as we'd have to fold to a further raise pre-flop which denies us the chance to take a really good nutty hand to a flop 4way with two perceivably weaker players in the hand, if we pot and get called by the first guy then everyone will call and there will be a psb back forcing us to jam and pray on most flops (fine in a 6m cash game, sits a lot worse with me in a FR tournament)
Obviously advantages to squeezing are we can win a very big pot, and we might be able to get AI vs the limper with a 15% overlay which is just about ok. We also might squeeze the good btn player out of the pot but to many ifs whathaves and buts for me I think calling is defo the best play.
Hand 1 could we r/f (like a semi bluff?)
Cheers Dave. I did raise pre, made it 13,000 to go as in this spot I just felt the button (good russian) was raising with any playable hand as limper was doing it too often to always have the goods. Fold from limper, fold from button and SB now decides to ship it in for about 30k more... Do we have to fold now, Ace is horrible in our hand as she has to have them, even if they are bad aces. Big pot that puts us in good shape for the rest of comp and near enough getting the right price. If we lose we have circa 20k and if we fold we have circa 50k. Is having 50k more important at this stage than having the 100k+?
If you wouldn't squeeze with this, what would you be squeezing with?
Hand 1, what size to we raise fold out of this stack though? If we raise as semi bluff we'd be getting a great price to call it off.
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Gamblor21
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #6 on:
July 22, 2014, 11:20:02 AM »
Quote from: muckthenuts on July 21, 2014, 05:29:14 PM
Hand 1 i'd probably call and try to realise equity 3way mostly because stack sizes are a little awkward. i.e. jamming feels too big/unbelievable, and if we're raising flop from 15k to say 40k then we have only ~55k to jam turn and villain/s are getting a great price on all fronts when our range is draws/sets only. Also the flop bet sizing from OR leads me to believe he could have a strong range here? It could be an ok spot to raise if despite this you think we can get him to fold as high as like JJ here and the BTN cause of the action/dwell never has a hand, but as i said stack sizes just feel a little awkward.
Calling 15k out of the stack just feels a bit ugly to me. If he bets between 5k-10k maybe, but once he has made it 15k I think it is raise or fold. If I just call and don't get their on the turn I'm unlikely to see the river. Should we just fold now on flop and wait for better spots? Or if we do that should we not be calling pre like greekstein said? Even if we did have a Queen AND a Ten of the same suit.
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GreekStein
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
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Reply #7 on:
July 22, 2014, 01:18:55 PM »
Quote from: Gamblor21 on July 21, 2014, 08:47:25 PM
Quote from: GreekStein on July 21, 2014, 05:18:18 PM
Hand 1 I would fold pre.
Hand 2 I would call
Hand 1 - What are you calling with?
Hand 2 - What is minimum you call with and what do you raise with?
I think hands like Q 10 suited are overplayed by most people. The nl I've played in the last 2 years has all been mid and high stakes cash so maybe what I'm saying doesn't apply to tournaments as much for whatever reason but I just think for these hands to be profitable calls pre we need to be significantly deeper than we are. Also not guaranteed position with the button still to act and our cutoff call might also make a squeeze more attractive to button and blinds. Guess I'm calling like AJs, AQo, pairs and kq plus 3betting some hands
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wazz
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #8 on:
July 22, 2014, 02:26:06 PM »
I'd rather squeeze pre in hand 1 than call. Seems like a great spot to make it ~20k or thereabouts and not expect to get flatted particularly wide.
Hand 2 is a fairly easy call pre.
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muckthenuts
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #9 on:
July 22, 2014, 06:55:53 PM »
Yeah i would fold QTs pre and i tend to be really nitty in a spot like that. Don't think i quite prefer squeezing pre as Wazz suggested as i think you will get peeled more than normal in this tournament with deeper stacks and a more recreational field, which is why i'd avoid it oop as we probably don't really need to take every high variance spot we can in this tournament. But i can see merits for it too for sure.
Postflop i see no reason why we can't take one card off in even given the large betsizing, getting a decent immediate price with the other caller and if one/both do have a strong hand hopefully there's some value to be had if we get there. I'm sure we'll get to see a river card sometimes too.
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AlexMartin
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #10 on:
July 23, 2014, 03:48:57 PM »
hand 1 is fine, call flop though, raising is a bad idea.
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Gamblor21
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Re: Couple of hands from WSOP Events
«
Reply #11 on:
July 24, 2014, 09:10:31 AM »
Thanks for the replies everyone. I think I made mistakes in both hands, generally being a bit aggressive when it isn't necessary. Hand 1 I check raise to 40k and end up getting it in with my draw vs KK. I should've thought it through a bit more, his bet on the flop was strong (especially with some of his history), so the likelihood of my bet getting through wasn't good and I should just take a card as he would struggle to fold I think. Hand 2 I don't mind my squeeze, but it is higher variance and I should probably just flat, even with the dynamics. Then calling against the clear aces was a bit gambly even with near enough the right price.
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