Road to being a pro

[pokerplayingfarmer]

Hey, been quietly reading this a while, I'm a complete rec at online poker, just can't seem to get on with it, the vast majority of what I play is live cash, mainly 1/1 some 1/2.  Imo you can't really put a blanket roll required amount up there.  Like has been said a lot of these are so high variance it's unreal, having said that you can sit nitting it up in them too.  It really does depend on your approach to them as to how much you need.  Playing a tight game with the right game selection it's plausible you could get away with 7-10 bi, but take an aggro approach on a table full of pure punters... You won't need a lot of run bad to kiss goodbye to 30 bi. 

[cambridgealex]

Got to disagree here. I think live cash is one of the lowest variance forms out there. Played over 4000 hours lifetime probably and never downswung more than 30 buyins at 1/2 and above and never more than 22/23 at £1/1. And that's 100bb buyins when actually I buy in for 200-300bb and there's often a straddle etc.

[Honeybadger]

Got to disagree here. I think live cash is one of the lowest variance forms out there. Played over 4000 hours lifetime probably and never downswung more than 30 buyins at 1/2 and above and never more than 22/23 at £1/1. And that's 100bb buyins when actually I buy in for 200-300bb and there's often a straddle etc.

I agree with the bolded bit. But that does not mean that in live cash games you should not expect much greater than 30x100bb downswings. It just means that Alex - great player though he is - has never yet felt the full force of variance in his career.

However, this does not mean you need to have ten gazzillion buy-ins in your roll plus 25 years living expenses in a segregated bank account in order to play! If you go broke it is not the end of the world. You are young, with no responsibilities. And plenty of time. Going broke might seem like an unimaginable disaster to you, but it is not. If it happens you can do something else for a bit, get a little money together and try again. Wash, rinse, repeat... eventually it will stick.

Get yourself in good games and play well. The money will come. Eventually.

When you do finally build up a decent bankroll - well, that is worth protecting. But a couple of grand roll is not really worth much and can be (relatively, in the great scheme of things) easily replaced. Nothing wrong with exercising aggressive bankroll management with a small roll. Just remember that when you do finally get a proper playing roll together that you then should to do everything possible to protect it.

A big roll is more worthy of protection than a small roll. Most people get this the wrong way round.

[Honeybadger]

Just to add to the above... A couple of years ago I started playing in the softest NLHE game I have played in for many years; a private game running three times a week. It was the sort of game in which you would expect it to be impossible to go on much of a downswing - partly because my edge was so huge (there was not a single other competent player in this game apart from me), and also because it was full of loose passive cally wally types rather than aggressive players. This game was pretty much as high winrate/low variance as it comes. And I lost for 6 straight months.

I can't bring myself to go back through my records and work out exactly how much I lost during this downswing - but let me assure you it was way, way, way more than 30x100bbs! Never ever underestimate how bad variance can be.

[cambridgealex]

Whilst I agree I've been lucky not to have a bigger downswing I really do believe that if you lose more than 3k in live 1/1 games then you're doing something wrong.

Having said that, I guess you (king push) do need more than that to play it because you are new to it so actually will be doing things wrong, so you're swings will be bigger.

[shipitgood]

Do you reckon 1k - or 5 buy in's - for 200nl is too little to say i'm going to take a punt at live cash?

And try and spin that up.

It sounds like a lot on paper £1k, especially if you equate it to wages or money earned. It's real and tangible, hand over your money get your chips and cash out for cold hard notes. Where as online the money you win or lose, it's almost not real, till your weekly/ monthly withdrawal hits your bank account.

Maybe a bit naïve. but reckon 5 buy in's is decent enough for live?

  

[muckthenuts]

Got to disagree here. I think live cash is one of the lowest variance forms out there. Played over 4000 hours lifetime probably and never downswung more than 30 buyins at 1/2 and above and never more than 22/23 at £1/1. And that's 100bb buyins when actually I buy in for 200-300bb and there's often a straddle etc.

Did way more than this in very soft live games. It can happen.

/moan

Having said that over 3/4 years i rarely had more than a 10bi swing before that absolute nightmare few months. And i think 10 buyins is enough of a cushion to get cracking at live cash. Like Honeybadger said it's not like you won't be able to replenish that figure over time to keep shotting at it. You can build a roll relatively quickly in live cash if games are good where you play.

[pokerplayingfarmer]

Do you reckon 1k - or 5 buy in's - for 200nl is too little to say i'm going to take a punt at live cash?

And try and spin that up.

It sounds like a lot on paper £1k, especially if you equate it to wages or money earned. It's real and tangible, hand over your money get your chips and cash out for cold hard notes. Where as online the money you win or lose, it's almost not real, till your weekly/ monthly withdrawal hits your bank account.

Maybe a bit naïve. but reckon 5 buy in's is decent enough for live?

  

For shot taking purposes, if you got a bag aside that doesn't matter in the greater scheme, then crack in and have a go why not?   If you lose some then jump into 1/1.  It's plenty enough to get a feel for the games and give you an idea whether or not you want to play those games. 

I don't think 5 is quite enough long term but it's definately enough to have a shot with. 

[arbboy]

Do you reckon 1k - or 5 buy in's - for 200nl is too little to say i'm going to take a punt at live cash?

And try and spin that up.

It sounds like a lot on paper £1k, especially if you equate it to wages or money earned. It's real and tangible, hand over your money get your chips and cash out for cold hard notes. Where as online the money you win or lose, it's almost not real, till your weekly/ monthly withdrawal hits your bank account.

Maybe a bit naïve. but reckon 5 buy in's is decent enough for live?

  

For shot taking purposes, if you got a bag aside that doesn't matter in the greater scheme, then crack in and have a go why not?   If you lose some then jump into 1/1.  It's plenty enough to get a feel for the games and give you an idea whether or not you want to play those games.  

I don't think 5 is quite enough long term but it's definately enough to have a shot with.  

Shot taking is what live poker is all about.  Just stick the till in and enjoy it.  You might change your life.  The vast majority of live pros have binked the world and just run ahead of the game at the start and live off that for a while and see what happens after that.  Survival bias is so under rated in live poker.  Sample sizes are never big enough for anyone to know how good they really are whatever they try to tell you.  The DTD all time cash list is pretty much proof of shot taking and it's advantages.  

Two of the best live cash pros in the uk have told you on this thread how big the downswings can be in low stakes 'soft' live cash games (if they are losing you can gtd 'bad' players will be winning) so you can go months winning even if you are an average/poor player then who knows what will happen after that. It's totally up to you.  I have seen with my own eyes a truely shocking live 1/2 player win for literally 18 months in a row in my local casino 4 years ago and delude himself into thinking he was an awesome winning gambler.  He still lives at home with his mum now even though he has had the heater of all heaters which he will never repeat again in his life.  If you don't stick it in and have a go you will never know.  If you are an average player in 2015 you have no chance making a living medium/long term playing online.  You probably have no chance live either but you can beat the variance more live than online so give up the online dream and take all your shots live.  gl

[SuuPRlim]

God poker is stupid!

[KingPush]

Have you considered mtts? I'd definitely be trying to forget stars for a while. It's not just about the quality of your play but about the quality of game you can find. Sometimes heading off the beaten track is very much worthwhile.

I have a lot of respect for anyone trying to grind it up at nlhe cash in 2015. Don't lose the faith, if you want it that bad and work hard enough for it you will get there.

Play Mtts mostly when I want to play but feel like I'm playing at 50%, think I've won 2 life time.

Do you reckon 1k - or 5 buy in's - for 200nl is too little to say i'm going to take a punt at live cash?

And try and spin that up.

It sounds like a lot on paper £1k, especially if you equate it to wages or money earned. It's real and tangible, hand over your money get your chips and cash out for cold hard notes. Where as online the money you win or lose, it's almost not real, till your weekly/ monthly withdrawal hits your bank account.

Maybe a bit naïve. but reckon 5 buy in's is decent enough for live?

 

For shot taking purposes, if you got a bag aside that doesn't matter in the greater scheme, then crack in and have a go why not?   If you lose some then jump into 1/1.  It's plenty enough to get a feel for the games and give you an idea whether or not you want to play those games. 

I don't think 5 is quite enough long term but it's definately enough to have a shot with. 

Shot taking is what live poker is all about.  Just stick the till in and enjoy it.  You might change your life.  The vast majority of live pros have binked the world and just run ahead of the game at the start and live off that for a while and see what happens after that.  Survival bias is so under rated in live poker.  Sample sizes are never big enough for anyone to know how good they really are whatever they try to tell you.  The DTD all time cash list is pretty much proof of shot taking and it's advantages. 

Two of the best live cash pros in the uk have told you on this thread how big the downswings can be in low stakes 'soft' live cash games (if they are losing you can gtd 'bad' players will be winning) so you can go months winning even if you are an average/poor player then who knows what will happen after that. It's totally up to you.  I have seen with my own eyes a truely shocking live 1/2 player win for literally 18 months in a row in my local casino 4 years ago and delude himself into thinking he was an awesome winning gambler.  He still lives at home with his mum now even though he has had the heater of all heaters which he will never repeat again in his life.  If you don't stick it in and have a go you will never know.  If you are an average player in 2015 you have no chance making a living medium/long term playing online.  You probably have no chance live either but you can beat the variance more live than online so give up the online dream and take all your shots live.  gl

Still think you can get enough volume in online with a good rake back deal to be able to move up the stakes. People who are average are still making a living online. Definitely agree with shot taking though especially in splashy live games. Kind of wish I hadn't considering i lost about a bag playing them last month. When the shot goes well it seems worth it but when it goes bad and you're in the hole and you think I can just go online and win again and then you get in a hole there as well then it can be really demoralising. Depends how motivated you are to move down and rinse repeat I guess.

[KingPush]

First time I've ever done a sort of schedule of mtts and bricking harder than Churchill on his days off.

2 sweats left. 30 bigs in hotter 11 and 85 in 11 dollar 12k gtd

[Honeybadger]

Hope that in five hours you are referring to the above ^^ as a world-class moan it in post. GL!

[KingPush]

Out of the bigger 11

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/13155242_16DF940163
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/13155250_A64460863A

[KingPush]

Hope that in five hours you are referring to the above ^^ as a world-class moan it in post. GL!

Do min cashes count?
http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/13156104_0ED0F8449F