Strictly Come Dancing 2014

[Tal]

This show does my nut in sometimes.

As much as I'm glad one of the bottom two went this week, the wrong one went from the dance off.

[Doobs]

On Saturday after the show, Betfair is suspended until Sunday so the bookies have to do some bookmaking.  Anyway think 4 had put up Mark Wright prices.  3 were 12/1, Shy were 16/1.  I thought I'd have some of that.  They let me have precisely £1.50 each way.  So I thought I'll try and put him in a double with something to try and get some more on. 

Took me about a minute to realise they were 1/8 on Rory for SPOTY and I thought that was about bang on Betfair, so thought that will do.  Got the Mark Wright price up and they had already chopped it to 12/1.

So Shy will only lay £1.50 on a 16/1 shot and if they take the max will chop 25% off the price.  You wonder why they bother sending anyone in on a Saturday night to set the prices.

FWIW they would let me have another 40p at the new price...

[Tal]

Zoë will be presenting the weekend shows again. It has been revealed that Claudia's daughter has been badly burned in an accident and is in hospital.

It isn't yet known whether Claudia will be back

[tikay]

Zoë will be presenting the weekend shows again. It has been revealed that Claudia's daughter has been badly burned in an accident and is in hospital.

It isn't yet known whether Claudia will be back

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/11208408/Claudia-Winkleman-forced-to-pull-out-of-Strictly-Come-Dancing-after-daughter-has-Halloween-accident.html

[TightEnd]

who wins this series?

one of pixie, frankie and jake, or is anyone else realistic?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

[AndrewT]

I assume the final will be four people. And it's just a popularity contest as the judges don't score in the final.

Do we think there's any chance that Pixie, Frankie or Jake lose in a dance-off to any of the other 4? If not, then it needs two of those three to be in the dance-off for any of them not to make the final. None of those three have been in the dance-off so far. Jake avoided it when he was join second bottom on the leaderboard two weeks ago. Pixie and Frankie have been so good each week that their popularity with the public has not really been tested.

Both Simon and Mark have had shock weeks when they were in the dance-off. Caroline was in the dance-off the week she was level on points with Sunetra and Mark (so less popular than them that week). Sunetra is probably going to be bottom of the leaderboard each week now and would lose a dance-off to any of the others so she is toast.

So, it looks like the top three are unstoppable to the final. Jake is certainly not unpopular with the public - Frankie and Pixie we just don't know. Given that, doesn't it make Jake the bet? If either of the girls does have a soft votebase then it could reveal itself in the next couple of weeks as the number of dancers drops, at which point Jake's price crashes.

[Tonji]

Only watched parts of this series, & gather winner has to good (but not the best), & have a wide enough profile to earn public votes.

Agree with Andrew, Jake looks favourite to me & taken some 3.8 on betty.

[The Camel]

Where has Tal gone?

Has he seen the light and realised SCD is pile of tosh?

[Doobs]

Where has Tal gone?

Has he seen the light and realised SCD is pile of tosh?

Counting all his money no doubt.

Not sure I'd put Jake above Frankie and that is what you have to do to back Jake at 3.8.  Of course Frankie and Pixie are similar, pop star, some experience pre comp, both very good, both female, and Jake brings something different.  But I would counter that by saying Jake hasn't been as consistent as the two girls.  Think the prices look about right for the 3, but would pick Frankie as she is biggest price of the 3. 

Isn't Mark some value again at close to 20/1 on Betfair, though market is really flimsy right now?

[tikay]

Where has Tal gone?

Has he seen the light and realised SCD is pile of tosh?

Think he has a very busy week at work.

He gave us a nice 9/2 shot for SCD on Saturday, which dead-heated, so he's not lost his SCD touch!

[Tal]

Where has Tal gone?

Has he seen the light and realised SCD is pile of tosh?

De kameel! Hoe is Amsterdam?

I think Jake is a little specialist in his dances (does the mean/moody and the crazy, party guy and not a lot inbetween), although in the final you get to pick your best dances.

Pixie is the best dancer and would be my favourite. I find her and Trent a bit saccharine and I'm probably not alone there. I wouldn't want to back her but she is the front runner.

Frankie has all the talent and seems to have the "dad vote", if our unscientific TfT is anything to go by. My concern would be whether Kevin gives her too much to do and we lose the chance to see her at her best.

Outside those three, I'm struggling to support any of the others. Mark loves his nan. And his other nan. And his mum. And his fiancée. And Essex. He's getting on my wick now.

Caroline is somehow even more annoying and it's farcical how brazenly the judges are overmarking her ("she fell over but I'm going to give her a nine"). That's not going to end well, I'm sure.

Sunetra doesn't seem to be training as much as the others, I assume due to casualty commitments. She isn't going to close the gap, so she's a no-channer unless that changes.

Simon is the only one I could see cracking that top three. He is an emerging talent and has found some confidence to go with it. Biggest problems are perception: people don't like Kristina (see gossip press) and Simon can look a bit grumpy on camera.

How's that?

[buzzharvey22]

Pixie Lott wins.

Not SCD.

She just wins.

[TightEnd]

Pixie and Trent are the Lannister twins

one i do not want to win is Pixie.

far prefer Frankie of the two coached/stage school/semi-dancer contestants

[The Camel]

Where has Tal gone?

Has he seen the light and realised SCD is pile of tosh?

De kameel! Hoe is Amsterdam?

I think Jake is a little specialist in his dances (does the mean/moody and the crazy, party guy and not a lot inbetween), although in the final you get to pick your best dances.

Pixie is the best dancer and would be my favourite. I find her and Trent a bit saccharine and I'm probably not alone there. I wouldn't want to back her but she is the front runner.

Frankie has all the talent and seems to have the "dad vote", if our unscientific TfT is anything to go by. My concern would be whether Kevin gives her too much to do and we lose the chance to see her at her best.

Outside those three, I'm struggling to support any of the others. Mark loves his nan. And his other nan. And his mum. And his fiancée. And Essex. He's getting on my wick now.

Caroline is somehow even more annoying and it's farcical how brazenly the judges are overmarking her ("she fell over but I'm going to give her a nine"). That's not going to end well, I'm sure.

Sunetra doesn't seem to be training as much as the others, I assume due to casualty commitments. She isn't going to close the gap, so she's a no-channer unless that changes.

Simon is the only one I could see cracking that top three. He is an emerging talent and has found some confidence to go with it. Biggest problems are perception: people don't like Kristina (see gossip press) and Simon can look a bit grumpy on camera.

How's that?

I'll take that as a no.

[horseplayer]

Tal has single handedly been smashing up the hills "compilers" every week so much they are not offering certain markets anymore

No wonder he likes it!