6m Hyper Turbo - Deep in the ICM tank

[theprawnidentity]

Played a few 6m hypers whilst I had a few spare minutes and this led me to start thinking.  Historically this isn't a good thing but the more I think about this, the more it hurts.  Although the hands itself is a really easy fold, it got me thinking about tactics from the buttons point of view:

Seat 2: aracamp (1470 in chips)
Seat 3: tomsom87 (1154 in chips)
Seat 6: expertpoker7 (376 in chips)
aracamp: posts the ante 12
tomsom87: posts the ante 12
expertpoker7: posts the ante 12
aracamp: posts small blind 60
tomsom87: posts big blind 120
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tomsom87 [ ]
expertpoker7: raises 240 to 360
aracamp: raises 1098 to 1458 and is all-in
tomsom87:


For those who aren't aware, these hypers pay 2 spots 65% and 35% of the prizepool.

In this spot, he wagers all but 2 chips of his stack meaning that we can't get it in with 88 in case he folds (whereas if he shoves we have a pretty easy overcall as there's no chance of him folding).  This got me thinking that if we are the button, do we have any love for m/r folding (I think 3x'ing is a bit excessive when we can still leave ourselves more than 1bb behind for next hand) if both of the blinds get it in?  And more to the point, how we would go about working out our net gain in prizepool % or $ev?  I ran some numbers through HRC and this suggested that open jamming AA netted us an additional 10% of the prizepool, whereas raise calling / folding (assuming that the bb could make a few mistakes) would net us nearly 20% of the prizepool.

It doesn't really make sense to me that the gain would be this big.  Maybe this is actually the case, but can anyone help me with working this out?  It's starting to hurt a bit.

[cambridgealex]

You love ICM too much

[Doobs]

Surely he makes a horrendous mistake folding with 2 chips to spare.  So you should treat it the same as a shove. Given that one can't be an easy call, and the other an easy fold.  It makes no sense at all.   

[theprawnidentity]

Surely he makes a horrendous mistake folding with 2 chips to spare.  So you should treat it the same as a shove. Given that one can't be an easy call, and the other an easy fold.  It makes no sense at all.    

Complete agree that 3x'ing isn't great but it can't be "horrendous" (obviously we're never folding to one player but if both blinds get it in we still win 35% of the prizepool ~40% of the time which doesn't feel like the biggest tragedy of all time).  Though obviously I think if we're going to go down this route we might as well m/r and save ourselves 120 chips and leave ourselves with more equity in the tournament.  I just want to know how we work out what the gains are, if any, in $ / prizepool % if we employ a min raise strategy where we open 100% of our jamming range, call it off vs one player 100% of the time and raise/fold if they both get it in.  We could also bag a small gain from picking up some fold equity vs bro's who don't think we would do this light.

And before Goulder comes back for a re-troll, yes, I have run out of pants to sniff.

[Doobs]

Surely he makes a horrendous mistake folding with 2 chips to spare.  So you should treat it the same as a shove. Given that one can't be an easy call, and the other an easy fold.  It makes no sense at all.    

Complete agree that 3x'ing isn't great but it can't be "horrendous" (obviously we're never folding to one player but if both blinds get it in we still win 35% of the prizepool ~40% of the time which doesn't feel like the biggest tragedy of all time).  Though obviously I think if we're going to go down this route we might as well m/r and save ourselves 120 chips and leave ourselves with more equity in the tournament.  I just want to know how we work out what the gains are, if any, in $ / prizepool % if we employ a min raise strategy where we open 100% of our jamming range, call it off vs one player 100% of the time and raise/fold if they both get it in.  We could also bag a small gain from picking up some fold equity vs bro's who don't think we would do this light.

And before Goulder comes back for a re-troll, yes, I have run out of pants to sniff.

I am not saying 3x ing is terrible, just that he must call the extra 2 chips if he does the 3x.   So whatever you do should be the same as if he went all in.  But you said one is an easy call and the other an easy fold.   That makes no sense to me.  I suspect the answer is it is really quite a tricky spot, but if you are a boss, you say yah that's easy. 

My instinct is to call both, but I play a lot of PLO 8 Hypers and I think ICM is more forgiving because you often gets chips back. 

[cambridgealex]

Feels daft that the jump from 3rd to 2nd (say $35) is bigger than the jump from 2nd to 1st ($30)

[theprawnidentity]

Feels daft that the jump from 3rd to 2nd (say $35) is bigger than the jump from 2nd to 1st ($30)

This is the main problem with these feel players.

Click to see full-size image.

You're the guy at the table who when you get to showdown after turning a set says, "I bet you liked that turn didn't you?"

[theprawnidentity]

So whatever you do should be the same as if he went all in.  But you said one is an easy call and the other an easy fold.   That makes no sense to me.  I suspect the answer is it is really quite a tricky spot, but if you are a boss, you say yah that's easy.  

My instinct is to call both, but I play a lot of PLO 8 Hypers and I think ICM is more forgiving because you often gets chips back.  

Ok I'm with this now.  Basically if they both shove the range's that they are meant to, ICM suggests we call it off with 66+.  If there's a raise and an all in, even if he folds one hand that he min raises with we still should fold 99.  This is what I'm trying to work out, if the numbers being this skewed is for a reason or if the algorithm used falls down somewhere.

For example, if the button opens his full shoving range which is something like 30% of hands, the sb iso's the amount of hands he should rejam with vs a shove (26% of hands), and on top of that we call that jam with the 3.5% of hands that we should call with (TT+, AK), then according to ICM the button should only call off his 4 extra chips with 6.0%, 77+ AJs+ AKo KQs QJs.  For him even AQo is a fist pump fold in this scenario.

Even if the bb makes some mistakes and gets it in with 10% of hands the button can still only call with 6.6% of his 30% opening range.  Obviously as soon as we fold he should call with 100% of his opening range again.

Click to see full-size image.

[Doobs]

Get you now. So I should be min raising a short stack to coffin my opponents.  Seems plausible. 

The downside I see is if you are playing Hypers, the less decisions the better. You don't want to be doubling the number of decisions by adding in stuff other than shove, fold and call.  I used to to it a lot, but kind of just do the basics now.

Might give it a go later.