Tough turn to play

[rfgqqabc]

PokerStars Hand #122219298240: Tournament #919442822, $5000+$200 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (1250/2500) - 2014/09/29 7:42:30 CET [2014/09/29 1:42:30 ET]
Table '919442822 92' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: fr0zZy (79070 in chips)
Seat 2: UndrAAge (97443 in chips)
Seat 3: XD89lol<3 (32415 in chips)
Seat 4: Tulkaz (138099 in chips)
Seat 5: Harleyy30040 (74436 in chips)
Seat 6: Demonic16 (176890 in chips)
Seat 7: dimjik999 (150976 in chips)
Seat 8: vinnkels (138247 in chips)
Seat 9: toetagU (396375 in chips)
fr0zZy: posts the ante 325
UndrAAge: posts the ante 325
XD89lol<3: posts the ante 325
Tulkaz: posts the ante 325
Harleyy30040: posts the ante 325
Demonic16: posts the ante 325
dimjik999: posts the ante 325
vinnkels: posts the ante 325
toetagU: posts the ante 325
Harleyy30040: posts small blind 1250
Demonic16: posts big blind 2500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Demonic16 [ ]
dimjik999: folds
vinnkels: folds
toetagU: folds
fr0zZy: raises 2875 to 5375
UndrAAge: folds
XD89lol<3: folds
Tulkaz: folds
Harleyy30040: folds
Demonic16: calls 2875
*** FLOP *** [ ]
Demonic16: checks
fr0zZy: bets 5970
Demonic16: raises 8596 to 14566
fr0zZy: calls 8596
*** TURN *** [ ] []
Demonic16:

38k in and 58k ish back. Thoughts?

We've been pretty active but not done that much post on this table, more 3betty.

[rfgqqabc]

Oops, could i get it moved to pha please.

[tikay]

Oops, could i get it moved to pha please.

Done.

[Oxford_HRV]

i'd love a bigger raise otf around ~21k really wanna chaarge villain if he wants to peel another card.

Board: Th5sJdQd
          Equity        Win       Tie
MP2   48.69%   48.69%   0.00%   { JhTc }
MP3   51.31%   51.31%   0.00%   { QQ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AKo, AJo, KJo+ }

trivial c/f on the turn i think, cant really bet turn vs this kinda range with spr.

[AlexMartin]

id size for turn and river or just turn otf. turn and river on this texture, think now we really need to know opponent very well; horrible spot with this psr. V some i like bet turn c/c some rivers, others betbet. In this format i think checking turn is good now we got here like this.

[pleno1]

I'm in the c/f camp!

[Honeybadger]

i'd love a bigger raise otf around ~21k really wanna chaarge villain if he wants to peel another card.

Board: Th5sJdQd
          Equity        Win       Tie
MP2   48.69%   48.69%   0.00%   { JhTc }
MP3   51.31%   51.31%   0.00%   { QQ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AKo, AJo, KJo+ }

trivial c/f on the turn i think, cant really bet turn vs this kinda range with spr.

Don't really agree with the range you have assigned to villain, especially not the AK (and AQ) bit of it. Villain is not especially likely to have either of these hands by the turn. However, he can have all sets and you haven't included these. But if you add in sets and take out all the AK then hero's equity is going to be better than this. You can leave a couple combos of AK in if you want just to account for the small chance that he makes a float with that vs your flop raise. But having all 16 combos is far too many.

SPR is a little awkward on the turn obviously, and perhaps hero could have anticipated this on the flop by sizing his raise either a little smaller or a little bigger (and I'd prefer a little bigger on this particular flop - which is the opposite view to Alex). Given SPR and turn texture I think overbet-jamming the turn can be seriously considered now. Or even (depending on our read on villain's bet-when-checked-to tendencies) c/r jamming the turn, old school stack-a-donk-style. I don't actually think it is a completely terrible turn card for hero's hand vs villain's range (obviously worse than something like an offsuit 4, but still not really terrible). But it is now of a texture where many rivers (8s, 9s, Qs, Ks, Aces, perhaps 5s too depending on what villain has) could either lose hero the pot, or lose him his action. Villain might still call with a lot of hands that hero is beating, and if he does fold a hand like KQ, AJ or KJ... well at least we have prevented him realising his equity (although of course we'd prefer him to call).

I'm in the c/f camp!

Really? So surprised by this. I mean obviously this is not the perfect turn card for hero, but hero's hand should still have an equity advantage vs villain's range even on this turn. And even if hero's range was now a small underdog to villain's range, then that would not make it a c/f since SPR is pretty small now.

[pleno1]

yeh i often end up c/f in spots like this. i dont necessarily feel like betting is a good thing, and when we check i dont think we beat his betting range, in fact i think when he bets turn we're usually crushed (assuming he checks kq all the time)

c/shoving the turn would seem like an absolute disaster.

i think people check back tx most of the time on the flop, or at least sometimes, but they will bet/call ak and aq, but i guess they wouldnt bet the latter on the river.

i know results obviously but at the time i genuinely thought id c/f this hand.

overbet jamming the turn seems bad, what are you expected to get called by? id be v surprised if he called aq.

i guess sometimes i would go ahead and b/f the turn i feel like people peel kj/kq more than they jam ott

[Oxford_HRV]

i'd love a bigger raise otf around ~21k really wanna chaarge villain if he wants to peel another card.

Board: Th5sJdQd
                           Equity        Win       Tie
MP2   48.69%   48.69%   0.00%   { JhTc }
MP3   51.31%   51.31%   0.00%   { QQ+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AKo, AJo, KJo+ }

trivial c/f on the turn i think, cant really bet turn vs this kinda range with spr.

Don't really agree with the range you have assigned to villain, especially not the AK (and AQ) bit of it. Villain is not especially likely to have either of these hands by the turn. However, he can have all sets and you haven't included these.

i was sure i had put in 99+ lol.  im still working out how to use equilab, this looks more sensible lol

Board: Th5sJdQd
   Equity   Win   Tie
MP2   49.79%   49.79%   0.00%   { JhTc }
MP3   50.21%   50.21%   0.00%   { 99+, AKs, AdQd, AhQh, AsQs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, AdJd, AhJh, AsJs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, AJo, KJo, AdKs, AdKc, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKd, AcKs }

just a 1% adjustment, no idea how JQdd is in villains range ect 

[Oxford_HRV]

sigh i give up using equilab cant even put 55s in and have 99 in there

[Honeybadger]

Hmmm... just seen it is a 5k tourney so need to reevaluate a little, based on the fact that villain is more likely to be decent.

You see, I just work on the assumption that most players in most tourneys are not great. So they'd bet KQ on the turn when checked to (and then be committed to calling it off). And/or they might well call an overbet jam with KQ or KJ too - because they'd have a pair and an open ender and just wouldn't want to fold. But obviously since this is a decent sized tourney then this might well be less likely since presumably players actually play well.

I still don't think over bet jamming is bad though, since the SPR is a little awkward to go bet-bet - especially with so many bad river cards for our hand to get called and still be good - and we at least gain something from simply preventing opponent realising his equity.

Do you really think most players are always bet-calling the flop with AK? I mean obviously you know how people play in these tournament things, but it seems bad to me. Maybe I am wrong. Of course if villain does have all combos of AK in his range on the turn then our hand does a lot worse than if he does not have (m)any combos of it.

It seems to me that, given the small SPR, you would have to be VERY VERY VERY secure in your population reads (that villain will bet/call AK on flop, that villain will check back KQ on the turn, that villain will not call a big bet with KQ, AQ or KJ, that villain will simply call a normal sized bet with KQ rather than jam all-in over a turn bet) in order to either c/f or b/f this turn. IMO this is just a hand vs range spot where we have way more than enough equity to commit vs his range. And given this, plus the SPR, an overbet jam is worth considering. Even if we have a bit less than 50% equity against his overall range, then a jam is still higher EV than check-folding. It's one of those counter-intuitive spots where you are 'value-betting' and yet still hoping villain folds, which is perfectly reasonable from a theory point of view. Of course, if you are very confident that villain is not going to semi-bluff or bet worse for value when checked to (i.e. he will allow us to get to showdown when we are winning) and will also rarely call with KQ, AQ, KJ, KK, AA or whatever (so we don't get anything other than protection by betting), then c/f makes sense. But, as I said, you have to be very, very secure in your reads.

[pleno1]

also feel like just passing up these spots and being left with a fantastic stack in a 5k tournament with an amazing structure is good too.

going down to 75k or whatever it would be could be the hand that changed the tournament for you, this hand wont win you the tournament.

im a nit in these kind of spots though.

[Honeybadger]

Okay I get the tournament considerations thing. But if you are dead set on c/f turn then surely just check-call flop, and play the hand as an absolutely top-of-the-range bluff catcher. Because if we are check-folding the turn then our flop check-raise is mainly just a protection bet, and not a true value bet. Obviously I understand that a value hand on the flop can become a bluff catcher, or even a check-folder, if a particularly bad card comes on the turn. But if you are considering the Q to be a card that turns a value hand (that can c/r the flop) into a c/f on the turn then presumably you are also seeing any K, A or 9 in the same light. That's 16 cards that make our hand unable to keep betting, and probably c/f. And perhaps the three remaining 5s too, since we now lose to overpairs. So that would be 19 cards. Which is a lot, especially when out of position (which prevents us from checking back a 'bad turn'). And if there really are so many turn/river cards that can come to make us want to c/f then perhaps we do not really have a value check-raise on the flop.

Which seems silly, and I don't agree with it.

If c/r flop is good and c/f turn is also good then you must view the Q turn as one of a very small number of nightmare turn cards that can come to completely change our hand's value vs villain's range. That's the only way that both c/r flop AND c/f turn can be correct.

[Oxford_HRV]

If c/r flop is good and c/f turn is also good then you must view the Q turn as one of a very small number of nightmare turn cards that can come to completely change our hand's value vs villain's range. That's the only way that both c/r flop AND c/f turn can be correct.

I think Q>A>K>9>5 for views of nightmare turn cards. Really expect people b/c AK otf nearly always off 30bigs, vs small c/r.

I don't think that c/r flop small is good though.

I agree what pleno1 says about betting turn won't really be that good and villains betting range ott will be beating us.

I mainly decided c/f was best due to consideration our stack size and thought it was deffo too risky/thin to b/f or b/c for this many chips so c/f on the Q turn was best

I would like to try and use equilab to see how close equity is but it tilts the life out of me trying to click the right boxes, adding the right suits, ect seems like 50/50 though.

Much rather have my 60bb stack with structure than taking a shot at winning this pot ott

[Honeybadger]

I think Q>A>K>9>5 for views of nightmare turn cards.

Surely the worst turn card is an Ace, followed by a 9. Because villain almost definitely plays all 16 combos of KQ this way on the flop. That's a LOT of combos, and a large % of his overall range, given that this range is going to be quite narrow. An Ace is worse than a 9 obviously since he also likely has all AJ and AA combos too. This is, of course, assuming that villain is always opening KQo and AJo from this position, which is not certain but I'd guess is likely. Villain is certainly much more likely to open AJo from this position than he is QJo or QJs! So I just don't see that the Q is a worse card than an Ace or a 9. Of course, if you are 100% certain that villain will play all 16 combos of AK like this then fair enough the Q is going to mean you have been outdrawn quite a bit. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. But he is definitely playing his KQ this way, right? And we cannot be as sure about the AK.

That's the whole point really. A Q is not the worst turn card that can come, it is not even the second worst card. So if we don't feel hero can continue on the Q turn, then that means there are a LOT of turns hero cannot continue on. Which means hero's flop check-raise is not really a true value-raise, and might even be bad.

Which is NOT what i think of course. I personally think that hero's flop c/r is fine. But then I am not advocating c/f this turn!