9HighLikeABoss

[shipitgood]

The start of the month and the last few days in December have been poor.

I read a post elsewhere about a month ago, the person was moaning about variance and how bad they ran. After reading it my reaction was that people over emphasise the impact of variance at times, in particularly when they are playing badly/ making the wrong decisions.

To me negative variance (at cash) is like 1 or bad session sporadically in-between winning sessions, eg very short term - never sustained periods of constant losing.

I made priority on Sky in December (and November) I put in a lot of volume to achieve this and both months were really decent profit wise. December was my best month ever.

Post Chritsmas day, I have been playing badly, havn't ran particularly well, but mostly it's just been playing terrible.

That 22 hand above just reflects how I've been playing.

When I made my op was planning to play a lot more tournies, which I will for sure, but will also need to keep up cash sessions at times as well.

Won't have great internet access over the next week, so it's actually worked out really well. I'm going to chill and have a good few days off from poker and come back wanting to play, not play because i'm forcing myself to.

Got Moorman's book before Christmas going to have a good look at that too.



 
       

[KingPush]

Dunno if that person was me or not but I think if anything people underestimate the impact of variance.

[shipitgood]

Hi mate, nah it wasn't you, it was a random on another forum.

[Young_gun]

Hand 1 looks pretty standard, rarely folding unless you have a perfect read on the opponent has A/Kflush easy call as played

Hand 2 is a mess bro, pre flop i do occasionally will squeeze IP with pp so that part isn't too bad but post flop just get out really no need to be fancy

[shipitgood]

Been painting the last week so haven't been playing much.

First thing that got painted was the hall carpet lol knocked over a tin of white gloss (it was sitting on top of a larger paint pot) it falls down up side down, go to pick it up, lids comes off, white gloss everywhere lol

Poker: Played the last few days, MTT's have still been poor. I would say it's my worst run in tourneys in a long time, but to be fair it's a really small sample size.

Pretty confident run good is on it's way!

[shipitgood]

Momentum

Confidence and momentum is so important for me in poker.

Played a few MTT's tonight, was a mixed bag of some good and bad play. I bricked everything apart from a £5 MTT coming 2nd for £50. It's not a lot, but importantly it was a deep run and a FT. I went to the FT chip leader, went kinda card dead 3 handed. Got to HU a 2:1 dog. Managed to chip up and take the chip lead. Against the villain all I had to do was win lots of small pots - not bluff - and bet big with my strong hands. As in he'd limp pretty much every button. But, well, it's me, and I do silly stuff. Ended up doing a ridiculous bluff which put me back to a 2:1. Chipped up a bit then lost a flip to GG it. Normally getting to HU, i'm gutted to come 2nd. But the opponent deserved to win.

Stats for the month so far (MTT's), games 24, avg stake £8.17, profit minus £156.

Really low volume so far. Bit diff to my op, i'm going to stick to low stake MTT's for the rest of January just to build up a bit of confidence and hopefully get some momentum going.

If things go decent over the next few days might have a go at the MTT promo next week, with the winner getting a UKPC seat + accom. 
 

[shipitgood]

Couple of hands from that game.

Hand 1, 4 handed, blinds 200/400.

OTB   . Min raise to 800. . We have 20800 chips. SB has 15k, BB has 23k.

Reads SB is a regular, good decent player. He plays a lot of HU sit and gos. BB is pretty inexperienced.

Both players call.  Flop    

It checks through. I didn't continuation bet. HU easy continuation bet, I think the SB has a reasonable ranger here, like pocket pairs, Ace x though couldn't be that great an ace I guess, only hand I think i'm  getting him to fold is like KQ type hands.

Turn  . SB= Check. BB= 1200 bet (half pot).

I raised small for value and we can just fold if he 3 bets. I expect him to bet all 9x hands, some 7 x hands, Certain spade x hands.

I raised  to 2800. Really small raise. (8000)

River  

I bet 4800. He calls.

[shipitgood]

FT Bubble (98 players started). 7 left. 3 Handed. Other table 4 handed.

Blinds 600/1200. We have 25k at start of the hand in the BB.

SB Raises to 4200,they have us covered.

We have

 

We jam.

There is only 1 player that was reasonabley short. And they've just doubled to 20k.

Reads, the player is doing this with any Ace X pocket pair etc, they are not folding - they've never raised like 3x or over, and folded, but their holdings have always been pretty poor raggy aces, pocket pairs.

Just standard I have to get this in here. Lost to 77.




 

[KingPush]

FT Bubble (98 players started). 7 left. 3 Handed. Other table 4 handed.

Blinds 600/1200. We have 25k at start of the hand in the BB.

SB Raises to 4200,they have us covered.

We have

 

We jam.

There is only 1 player that was reasonabley short. And they've just doubled to 20k.

Reads, the player is doing this with any Ace X pocket pair etc, they are not folding - they've never raised like 3x or over, and folded, but their holdings have always been pretty poor raggy aces, pocket pairs.

Just standard I have to get this in here. Lost to 77.




 

don't we have enough to 3bet/call here? Not sure about mtts as don't play em that much but allows us to have a wider range if we can 3bet/call or 3bet/fold here. Might be risking too much though

[cambridgealex]

No choice but to jam AQ.

86 is wp too. Could make the turn bigger.

[pleno1]

86 is an easy cbet because the sb has to play tighter due to it being multiway and having to worry about the bb thus folding ax. bb whilst having more 9'sthan the sb will still not continue a huge amount and we have no showdown value. if we had a3ss then maybe i would consider checking, but still cbetting will have a higher ev. as played i would flat the turn and raise a river bet depending on sizing. this way his range is more defined (if he bets big hes probably polarised between hands that beat you and bluffs and we can call, and if he bets small hes probably not bliuffing and has a wider value range and we can potentially raise.

having a turn raising range when we check back the flop is pretty bad though i think.

[shipitgood]

Cheers everyone for the comments.

Really interesting when I looked at the 68 hand, as per my post, wasn't sure about the fact I hadn't continuation bet. Really like what you said about continuation betting pads.

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Tonight I played 5/6 MTT's, made 1 FT, coming 3rd. I was the chip leader 3 handed, although we were all reasonable deep.

This hand happened.

In SB with

Blinds 1/2k. We have 80k, button has 60k, other player has 65k.

Button is a reg, other player is pretty inexperienced.

He min raises button to 4k, we 3 bet to 8k. He calls (18k)

Flop 

We bet 8k. Call. Pot 34k. He has 45kish behind.

Turn  . We check, he bets half pot, 17k, and we fold.

He had been playing pretty snug (versus me) and generally avoiding me. He could have floated and bluffed, but given the stacks, game flow, it's just one of those ones I have to fold. If he's floated bluffed with 101099JJ then well played!

Lost the next hand, where I played a draw aggressively and bricked. Exit hand was inexperienced player 3.5 xes it (his standard open sizing! if not limping), I jammed AQhh he calls with 99s and lose the flip. AQ's my bogey hand of the day!

Was playing a lot of cash games too, ended up having a great night at cash.

Really happy with my play over the last few days. And am getting back to a bit of normality with poker!

[hhyftrftdr]

FT Bubble (98 players started). 7 left. 3 Handed. Other table 4 handed.

Blinds 600/1200. We have 25k at start of the hand in the BB.

SB Raises to 4200,they have us covered.

We have

 

We jam.

There is only 1 player that was reasonabley short. And they've just doubled to 20k.

Reads, the player is doing this with any Ace X pocket pair etc, they are not folding - they've never raised like 3x or over, and folded, but their holdings have always been pretty poor raggy aces, pocket pairs.

Just standard I have to get this in here. Lost to 77.



 

Thanks for that insight

Don't like the effective clickback with KK. And villain almost never has 10s or .

[shipitgood]

Just seen a message saying the 3 bet should be bigger.

All interesting stuff, glad I started this thread!

That's been my normal 3 bet sizing (value/ bluffs) doubling the initial raise - When a tournie is late on and stack sizes are quite shallowish like 30-40 bigs.

Unless it's a player like the other player at the table, we don't have to be balanced at all as he's only looking at his own cards.

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What a goal for Matthews  against Hamilton Accies today, total belter!

[hhyftrftdr]

So you don't adjust your raise sizing according to your table position and where the initial raise has come from?