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Author Topic: Truth or Lies  (Read 2343 times)
Jonny_Boy
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« on: January 28, 2006, 07:59:39 PM »
While watching a recent poker show, the commentator said" it's a 7/1 that he will improve his pair of sevens"

Is this true?........... 2 more 7's in the pack heads up= 2/48..........=24/1 surely?

or am i wrong?Huh??
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Bongo
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« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2006, 08:11:25 PM »
Each card dealt is 24/1 but there are multiple cards dealt...
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Jonny_Boy
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« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2006, 08:15:10 PM »
obviously the expert comentator (Michael Greco) was wrong then?
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dan
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2006, 08:17:11 PM »
if you hold a pocket pair, you are 7.5/1 to hit trips so he was only .5 out
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Jonny_Boy
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« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2006, 08:20:52 PM »
I hold 77.............2 more cards in the deck.............2/48, heads up...........surely 24/1 shot?Huh? please explain my mistakes?
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ifm
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« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2006, 08:26:04 PM »
blimey!

First card you have a 48/50 chance (48 non-seven cards left, 50 cards left in the deck), second card is 47/49, third card is 46/48. Those come out to .96, .959, and .958. Multiply them and get .882, or an 88.2% chance of NOT getting any sevens on the flop. (continue calcs for 4th and 5th cards). Invert it to figure out what your chances really are and you get .118 or 11.8%. This will be your chance to get one or two sevens.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2006, 08:43:53 PM by ifm » Logged
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neeko
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« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2006, 08:26:49 PM »
On the flop there are 3 cards so the first card out you have a 2/48 chance, howver if you miss there the second card out will have a 2/47 and the third card will be 2/46.

2/48 + 2/47 + 2/46 = well lets call it 6/47 which is 12.7%, about 1/7.8

I think.

edit Or what IFM said.

Further edit

My figures would have been correct if heads up against an opponent who had cards other than yours. Lets go with 7 and a lot.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2006, 08:34:56 PM by neeko » Logged
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snoopy1239
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« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2006, 08:27:51 PM »
7-1 isn't too far off I guess.

I've always gone by the figure 8-1. No need to be too precise.
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ifm
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« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2006, 08:28:52 PM »
BTW 11.8% is 7.5/1
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Jonny_Boy
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« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2006, 08:32:05 PM »
Just checking as people were questioning my grasp of odds??

Now I can back it up with knowledge, nice one boys
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dan
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« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2006, 08:50:34 PM »
Quote from: ifm on January 28, 2006, 08:28:52 PM
BTW 11.8% is 7.5/1

i said 7.5/1

thanks ian
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ifm
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« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2006, 08:54:54 PM »
Sorry to disapoint Dan but the 11.8% (7.5/1) are the odds on improving on a pocket pair:-

A set 8.3/1 (10.8%)
A full house 136/1 (0.74%)
Quads 407/1 (0.25%)
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dan
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« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2006, 08:57:44 PM »
ian im quite sure that you are 7.5/1 to flop a set whist holding a pair
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