Why we should have backed all the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle

[Doobs]

Rather than continue the ridiculous argument on why we shouldn't be betting at Cheltenham on TfT, I am going to put the maths in a new thread where it is less disruptive.

The Champion Hurdle had 8 runners.  Of those 3 looked no hopers, so effectively there were 5 horses battling for 3 places.

Of those 5, on the bettingf you could say:
Faugheen had an 85% chance of hitting the first 3;
Jezki had a 60% chance of hitting the top 3
The New One had a 65% chance of hitting the top 3.
Hurricane Fly had a 40% chance of hitting the top 3
Arctic Fire had a 22% chance of hitting the top 3
and the rest had maybe 28% between them.

quick check 85+60+65+40+20+30 = 300 so we are in business.

Those percentages were roughly in line with the place betting on betfair, give or take 5% on each.

Because the bookies were very competitve in this race and all the offers flying about you could back the whole lot to a win percentage of very close to 100%, maybe even less.

So you could back The New One at 9/2, Jezki at 6/1, Hurricane Fly at 11/1 and Artic Fire at 22/1.  I think those prices were all mentioned in the thread on Tuesday.  Given the closeness of the win book to 100%, it is safe to assume those win prices were about right.  Hence you were losing close to nothing in the long run on those win prices.

So what price were the bookies giving you on the place and what should they have been offering at true odds.

The New One was available at 9/8, when they should have been 1/2
Jezki was 6/4 when they should have been 4/6
Hurricane Fly was 11/4 when they should have been 6/4
and
Arctic Fire was 11/2 when they should have been 7/2

Given Faugheen was fairly freely available at better than its Betfair price, it really was golden.  So when I said we should be backing all 5, we really should have been.

So please can we quit this "Cheltenham is difficult" talk, Cheltenham is just great if you pick the right races to bet on. 

Cheers

Doobs

[sovietsong]

But I bet on the new one & lost so this can't be right?

[Doobs]

But I bet on the new one & lost so this can't be right?

pls read the title 

[Karabiner]

The trouble with this attitude to betting is that most of us are actual punters so investing £100 with an upside of it returning £110 or a downside of getting £90 back isn't really that attractive although it obviously makes excellent sense in the long term.

[sovietsong]

But I bet on the new one & lost so this can't be right?

pls read the title 

But I lost

[Doobs]

The trouble with this attitude to betting is that most of us are actual punters so investing £100 with an upside of it returning £110 or a downside of getting £90 back isn't really that attractive although it obviously makes excellent sense in the long term.

I think that is the point Ralph.

There are a lot of places in the World you can go and punt and there is no harm in it.  But if you want to win in the long run, you need to start thinking how to do it.  

There was a comment earlier about what was the point of putting up the short priced winners.  On Tuesday because I had backed the favourites at offer prices and done some hills mobile bets I got to the Champion Hurdle about even rather than a couple of hundred down.  There is a huge difference between the two on your mood as well as your bank balance.  I pretty much never miss something low variance and +EV when I see it.  I still back the bigger priced each way shots too, and I am sure they feel the same when they win whether I backed the favourite on an offer or not.  It all just evens out the peaks and troughs.  

[Karabiner]

The trouble with this attitude to betting is that most of us are actual punters so investing £100 with an upside of it returning £110 or a downside of getting £90 back isn't really that attractive although it obviously makes excellent sense in the long term.

I think that is the point Ralph.

There are a lot of places in the World you can go and punt and there is no harm in it.  But if you want to win in the long run, you need to start thinking how to do it.  

There was a comment earlier about what was the point of putting up the short priced winners.  On Tuesday because I had backed the favourites at offer prices and done some hills mobile bets I got to the Champion Hurdle about even rather than a couple of hundred down.  There is a huge difference between the two on your mood as well as your bank balance.  I pretty much never miss something low variance and +EV when I see it.  I still back the bigger priced each way shots too, and I am sure they feel the same when they win whether I backed the favourite on an offer or not.  It all just evens out the peaks and troughs.  

So do you actually watch lots of races throughout the season and have studied opinions on horses' form/going/trainers/courses because you love NH racing or do you simply study markets/trends/statistics and look for mathematical advantages?

I get the idea about taking advantage of all of these bookies' offers, but how about that good feeling when you have backed one ante-post at a huge price and it turns up on the day at a way shorter price?

Personally I far prefer that feeling compared to betting on five horses EW in an 8-horse race because the maths say it's correct.

I understand your logic David but it's not for everyone.

[Larry David]

doobs, did you back all 5 btw?

[Larry David]

The trouble with this attitude to betting is that most of us are actual punters so investing £100 with an upside of it returning £110 or a downside of getting £90 back isn't really that attractive although it obviously makes excellent sense in the long term.

I think that is the point Ralph.

There are a lot of places in the World you can go and punt and there is no harm in it.  But if you want to win in the long run, you need to start thinking how to do it.

 

There was a comment earlier about what was the point of putting up the short priced winners.  On Tuesday because I had backed the favourites at offer prices and done some hills mobile bets I got to the Champion Hurdle about even rather than a couple of hundred down.  There is a huge difference between the two on your mood as well as your bank balance.  I pretty much never miss something low variance and +EV when I see it.  I still back the bigger priced each way shots too, and I am sure they feel the same when they win whether I backed the favourite on an offer or not.  It all just evens out the peaks and troughs.  

So do you actually watch lots of races throughout the season and have studied opinions on horses' form/going/trainers/courses because you love NH racing or do you simply study markets/trends/statistics and look for mathematical advantages?

I get the idea about taking advantage of all of these bookies' offers, but how about that good feeling when you have backed one ante-post at a huge price and it turns up on the day at a way shorter price?

Personally I far prefer that feeling compared to betting on five horses EW in an 8-horse race because the maths say it's correct.

I understand your logic David but it's not for everyone.

Doobs is talking about the difference between one punter trying to make a long term profit through a good solid strategy and your way of backing a ante-post horse and gaining a buzz from picking a winner months before the race, recreational punting.  Both are fine as it is all on what the individual wants to gain from  gambling. 

@Doobs, any specialised sport you like to trade/bet?

[Doobs]

The trouble with this attitude to betting is that most of us are actual punters so investing £100 with an upside of it returning £110 or a downside of getting £90 back isn't really that attractive although it obviously makes excellent sense in the long term.

I think that is the point Ralph.

There are a lot of places in the World you can go and punt and there is no harm in it.  But if you want to win in the long run, you need to start thinking how to do it.  

There was a comment earlier about what was the point of putting up the short priced winners.  On Tuesday because I had backed the favourites at offer prices and done some hills mobile bets I got to the Champion Hurdle about even rather than a couple of hundred down.  There is a huge difference between the two on your mood as well as your bank balance.  I pretty much never miss something low variance and +EV when I see it.  I still back the bigger priced each way shots too, and I am sure they feel the same when they win whether I backed the favourite on an offer or not.  It all just evens out the peaks and troughs.  

So do you actually watch lots of races throughout the season and have studied opinions on horses' form/going/trainers/courses because you love NH racing or do you simply study markets/trends/statistics and look for mathematical advantages?

I get the idea about taking advantage of all of these bookies' offers, but how about that good feeling when you have backed one ante-post at a huge price and it turns up on the day at a way shorter price?

Personally I far prefer that feeling compared to betting on five horses EW in an 8-horse race because the maths say it's correct.

I understand your logic David but it's not for everyone.

It just happened that this year I didn't really have a long term bet on the Champion and the only one that looked a bit big to me was probably Hurricane Fly.

I do both things.  I don't think one thing dilutes the other.  I was chuffed I made a profit on the Champion and probably more chuffed when Aux Ptits Sours came in.  But there isn't much more satisfying than just grinding a profit both days.

[Doobs]

doobs, did you back all 5 btw?

Yes, I said I was going to on Monday night.  You simply don't get an opportunity like that very often, and normally I feel much stronger about one or two of the horses.

To answer your other question, specials is my speciality and you'd probably struggle to find something less stats based. 

[Larry David]

Good stuff, I do like the specials markets.  I hate stats, stats just complicate things.

[McGlashan]

Cheers Doobs, I've enjoyed reading your stuff throughout Cheltenham.

[The Camel]

The key flaw in this strategy is Kitten Rock was not a no hoper.

[The Camel]

And did you have a crystal ball that informed you Jezki was going to drift to 6/1?

Virtually every judge I speak to made it a solid 4/1, 9/2 chance over the weekend (Neil made it a very strong bet on Betting Emporium at 5/1, so he clearly did not envisage a drift)

The drift surprised everyone and you certainly couldn't get 6/1 Jezki at the same time you could get 6/4 or 11/8 Faugheen.

If you knew these moves were going to happen, it would have been far easier and more profitable to split your tank into trading the two horses IMO.