The Grand National Overround Debate

[BigAdz]

Its like the stupid kid in the maths class standing up and teaching everyone how to add up, like he was the only one that knew.

Cough......sound of own voice.....cough.


Carry on. x

Apologies if I'm taking these posts the wrong way but they seem rather bitter and spiteful.

I am enjoying this topic Tal and your posts on it. ty

LOL.

Oh dear, maybe you should read Fred a little more and get the vibe a bit more before you start being the Forum Policeman.

[DMorgan]

Good writeup Tal, the explanation at the start was certainly helpful to me

[tikay]

The key to the whole thing is the actual mechanism for setting the official SP, that is where the finger of suspicion pointed yesterday.

Horse racing is the only sport (greyhound racing excepted) which uses this method, is it not?

[BigAdz]

FWIW there is a certain inevitability about it, which you alluded to earlier.The majority of bettors that would be punished would be once a year punters that knew no better.

We must all know a Granny/Uncle/Friend/Tal who you have seen after the National and any win beyond their stake is a right result.

To highlight how easy it must be for the bookies to get away with it, I give you the following example. I suspect if you gave twenty randoms a fiver on a twenty five to one winner, if you gave them twenty five quid, a quarter or more would think that was what they were due.


I have been to Epsom on Derby Day in the cheap seats and the final race, a 16 horse affair, the longest odds were 12-1. And how did they get away with it? Because in those days it was that or nothing and most people there were so pissed they didn't even notice.

If the people there were doing it for a month, I suspect in the end, they would realise, but in those circs, the bookies could do what they like, knowing they controlled the market and all the options for anyone wanting a bet.

[vegaslover]

I did think it was bonkers when STFD was 8/1, and trading at 13 on Betfair. It then went 7/1, 6/1 in the blink of an eye whilst drifting to 14.5 on BF, which was you could get on the off.

Betfair and high street bookies probs always gonna be miles apart on a day like the National. Can't see too many once a year punters taking the smart money. Most will be doing several horses picked by the family.

[Karabiner]

I think that one of the starangest things to happen in recent times was when they changed the way of calculating SP so that it's far more like the worst price available than the best on the off.

How and why the bookies were allowed to get that one through is beyond me.

when did this change please?

at the start of the racing day 7-10 rails firms are nominated as the "pool" of SP setters for the day by the agent, i think...so the off course boys know where to go to "hedge"/shorten prices

in practice how did the process of setting the SP change?

They changed around 4/5 years ago I believe.

There aren't certain bookies chosen, there are SP agents who report the "generally available" prices in the ring, not the best available price. So if three bookies are offering 8/1, three offering 7/1,  but ten are going 6/1, they will return 6/1 as the SP.

I'm sure that Adz or Chompy can embellish that better but that is the gist of it.

[tikay]

I think that one of the starangest things to happen in recent times was when they changed the way of calculating SP so that it's far more like the worst price available than the best on the off.

How and why the bookies were allowed to get that one through is beyond me.

when did this change please?

at the start of the racing day 7-10 rails firms are nominated as the "pool" of SP setters for the day by the agent, i think...so the off course boys know where to go to "hedge"/shorten prices

in practice how did the process of setting the SP change?

They changed around 4/5 years ago I believe.

There aren't certain bookies chosen, there are SP agents who report the "generally available" prices in the ring, not the best available price. So if three bookies are offering 8/1, three offering 7/1,  but ten are going 6/1, they will return 6/1 as the SP.

I'm sure that Adz or Chompy can embellish that better but that is the gist of it.

How well-paid are these SP agents, and do they get a lot of Xmas presents?

In fact, who pays their wages, or employs them?

[Tal]

Which begs a question: does this not seem far too easily corruptable?

I hadn't realises they changed the SP system. That's changed from 2010, given the  article I linked earlier.

[Karabiner]

One paragraph in this article suggests that they are employed by the racecourse.

http://www.betbind.com/help/articles/starting-price-bets-explained.aspx

[Doobs]

Wouldn't you love to be a rails bookie and when Ladbrokes come up and ask for 2k at 8/1 on STFD, say you can have £20 at 7/1 and then push the price out to 9/1.  Then next meeting tell him he's banned.  

Neil had a debate on Twitter about this "hedging" yesterday.  

[Kmac84]

Wouldn't you love to be a rails bookie and when Ladbrokes come up and ask for 2k at 8/1 on STFD, say you can have £20 at 7/1 and then push the price out to 9/1.  Then next meeting tell him he's banned.  
 

That's the stuff dreams are made of. 

[The Camel]

Excellent series of posts Tal.

The racecourse market is supposed to a free market.

But yesterday the bookmakers were acting like a cartel.

The bookmakers who shortened STFD from 8/1 to 6/1 were bascially fixing the SP for their off course counterparts who are supposed to be their competition.

They could have made a years wages in one afternoon if they weren't so compliant to Ladbrokes wishes.

Ladbrokes want to shorten STFD from 8/1, on Betfair you can back it at 13/1.

However much Ladbrokes want, they should have taken, laid back 80% on Betfair and kept the price unchanged.

Instead, they took a pittance and changed the price to accomodate the off course layers wishes. It stunk to high heaven and was price fixing.

[spacefrog]

PMU is it you?

You know you want this?

And with this is my breakfast!

[Roy]

Great stuff.  But, we bang on about this every year and nothing ever gets changed.  Fraudulent scam of the public on a mass scale.

Similarly bookmakers advertise prices yet they can and often do refuse to take bets at that advertised price (I've sores of screen shots on this theme). 

Can you imagine what SKY News would do if they got word that Tesco's ran a TV advertising campaign offering Legs of Lamb at £2.49 yet none were available when you got to the shop  ...management stating there are only three of them available every day?  The next day thousands more customers are attracted to their shops and guess what? 

It is false advertising, it is illegal, but not in the bookmaking industry which has a high-street presence greater than the major bank branches. I know the FSA would jump on any bank advertising interests rates that were not available. Headline news once more

[tikay]

Great stuff.  But, we bang on about this every year and nothing ever gets changed.  Fraudulent scam of the public on a mass scale.

Similarly bookmakers advertise prices yet they can and often do refuse to take bets at that advertised price (I've sores of screen shots on this theme). 

Can you imagine what SKY News would do if they got word that Tesco's ran a TV advertising campaign offering Legs of Lamb at £2.49 yet none were available when you got to the shop  ...management stating there are only three of them available every day?  The next day thousands more customers are attracted to their shops and guess what? 

It is false advertising, it is illegal, but not in the bookmaking industry which has a high-street presence greater than the major bank branches. I know the FSA would jump on any bank advertising interests rates that were not available. Headline news once more

Ha, Mr Brindley of all people.

This must have touched a nerve with you - you have been a blonde for just shy of 8 years, & this is your first post.

Make sure its not 2023 before you post again, right?

Hope you & the family are hale & hearty, & give my love to Mags. You were both very kind to me on the Laddies Cruise when I was on my own.