Karanaka sending the keeper up for a corner in injury time drawing 3-3..

[The Camel]

...with only 10 men.

Here is the league table after Fulham broke away and netted a winner to make it 4-3.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/championship/table

Whichever way you cut it, it was an unorthodox move.

Discuss.

[The Camel]

If Boro settled for the point, Bournemouth would have needed four points from their last two games to achieve promotion.

Now just one win will suffice.

If Boro scored from that corner, Bournemouth almost certainly would have needed two wins.

Was it worth the risk?

[Tal]

On the one hand, data like this is pretty compelling regarding corner success rates:

http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/05/why-goal-value-of-corners-is-almost.html?m=1

But, on the other, giving Bournemouth the spot because you don't try everything to win is going to be hard to swallow.

I think Karanka did the right thing on the points side. However, as we move football tentatively towards analytics, I wonder whether "convention" will be something else in ten years' time.

What would Benham do?

[The Camel]

On the one hand, data like this is pretty compelling regarding corner success rates:

http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/05/why-goal-value-of-corners-is-almost.html?m=1

But, on the other, giving Bournemouth the spot because you don't try everything to win is going to be hard to swallow.

I think Karanka did the right thing on the points side. However, as we move football tentatively towards analytics, I wonder whether "convention" will be something else in ten years' time.

What would Benham do?

Current convention there would definitely be settle for the point and make your rivals win those four points.

But as current convention is almost always bollocks, it suggests to me he probably did the right thing.

Somewhat surprised there hasn't been more conversation (and criticism) of Karanka's decision.

Found a quote on the BBC website

""When you take a risk and you concede a goal the following day you can say that it was because you took a risk. But the problem with not taking a risk is that you will never know what would have happened if you did."

[TightEnd]

thought this was a really interesting one

presumably without the "as it stand"s table to hand, karanka was focussed on winning to have a chance to catch watford when arguably his focus should have been retaining the point to make bournemouth's task more difficult

incredibly brave to send the keeper up drawing with 10 men, but porobably focussed wrongly on the importance of winning it?

simply not losing put the pressure back on bournemouth?

[tikay]

All things considered, is it fair, right & proper that such crucial games, where they are all looking at the situation with the other teams in contention, kicked off at different times?

TV money is the reason, if course, & we all profess that TV should not be the Great God that determines kick off times, but as fans, we presumably don't mind our teams being gifted a great big dollop of tv money. 

[DungBeetle]

4 points needed verses 3 is a big difference in terms of pressure on Bournemouth.   They now have a freeroll shot at home tomorrow night.  Watford did a similar thing at home to Ipswich 5 games ago.  9 men forward in injury time and lose 1-0.   Think all the managers have it in their head that the other top 4 are always going to win every game.  It's the championship though!

[DungBeetle]

Tikay yesterday I thought before the game that Watford going first was an advantage.  Post a win to go 4 points clear and heap pressure on the others.  Suddenly the afternoon trips to Fulham and Rotherham feel tougher when you absolutely need to win.

[The Camel]

thought this was a really interesting one

presumably without the "as it stand"s table to hand, karanka was focussed on winning to have a chance to catch watford when arguably his focus should have been retaining the point to make bournemouth's task more difficult

incredibly brave to send the keeper up drawing with 10 men, but porobably focussed wrongly on the importance of winning it?

simply not losing put the pressure back on bournemouth?

Looked at a couple of Boro forums after posting this thread.

Majority thought it was the wrong move, but then some guy posted "Remember before the game, we were like 'must win at all costs' and Karanka tried to do that. Respect his decision, most likely thing was we didn't score but they didn't break away and score either".

Which I thought was fair comment.

Also, Norwich were 1-0 up in the dying stages, if they had held on to win and Boro had settled for a draw, Boro would have needed to overtake them too on the final day. And Norwich are at home to Fulham (80%+ to win).

Possible that Karanka didn't know Rotherham had equalised.

[tikay]

Tikay yesterday I thought before the game that Watford going first was an advantage.  Post a win to go 4 points clear and heap pressure on the others.  Suddenly the afternoon trips to Fulham and Rotherham feel tougher when you absolutely need to win.

Exactly my point.

[Doobs]

I'd say it is fairly clearly the wrong decision now.  But easy to do maths with 20/20 hindsight and a clear head. 

Sure I could have done the same in the same situation.  If he believed he absolutely needed the win, he has to gamble. 

[The Camel]

On the one hand, data like this is pretty compelling regarding corner success rates:

http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/05/why-goal-value-of-corners-is-almost.html?m=1

But, on the other, giving Bournemouth the spot because you don't try everything to win is going to be hard to swallow.

I think Karanka did the right thing on the points side. However, as we move football tentatively towards analytics, I wonder whether "convention" will be something else in ten years' time.

What would Benham do?

Asked Benham on Twitter last night (not expecting a reply obv), he replied this morning that he thought it was the right move.

[FUN4FRASER]

If Boro settled for the point, Bournemouth would have needed four points from their last two games to achieve promotion.

Now just one win will suffice.

If Boro scored from that corner, Bournemouth almost certainly would have needed two wins.

Was it worth the risk?

Though Perfect outcome for us Bournemouth fans  Keith right     ?  😉

[Tal]

On the one hand, data like this is pretty compelling regarding corner success rates:

http://www.soccerbythenumbers.com/2011/05/why-goal-value-of-corners-is-almost.html?m=1

But, on the other, giving Bournemouth the spot because you don't try everything to win is going to be hard to swallow.

I think Karanka did the right thing on the points side. However, as we move football tentatively towards analytics, I wonder whether "convention" will be something else in ten years' time.

What would Benham do?

Asked Benham on Twitter last night (not expecting a reply obv), he replied this morning that he thought it was the right move.

Ha! Brilliant!

/thread

[rfgqqabc]

Did you ask him to expand on this at all Keith?