Is there anything in the bet sizing I can use to justify a hero call?

[Tal]

Level 9 of a £50 local comp (600/1,200/200), where 50/122 remain. I have just moved to a new table and am in seat 9 of 10. Villain is in seat one. Early twenties, haven't seen him before.

I am playing 70k. Open 2800 on the cut off at 600/1200. SB makes it 6800 and I call with . (16,800)

Flop .  I call his 7,300 CBet. (31,400)

Turn giving me all the draws in the universe. He asks how much I'm playing and bets 13k. I smell a rat, so call. (I should perhaps shove here really, given I have sod all) (58,600)

River . He now shoves 26k. I dwell for an age. Really think he's at it but my nine high flush is as good as bottom pair, here, as he seems to me to be superpolarised.

I know this next sentence is the mother of all poker cliches. However, here goes: I just don't believe him but still fold. He shows for nothing but air. Bleugggggggghh! WP sir.

Now, if I believe he only has nut flushes (or ace king with the king of diamonds), plus a handful of stone cold bluffs, the price probably makes this a call. Interested in views on that. Difficulty is a lot of players at this level would sooner bet bigger and get their complete bluffs in on the turn, in my experience.

Primarily, I'm eager to see whether there's anything in the size of the bets that should have alerted me to possible at-it-ness. The little I could see of his body language behind the dealer was what led me to call on flop and turn, but I lost my bottle on the end. I am genuinely not sure whether I would have called with king high if he shoved a blank river.

I'm pretty poor with bet sizing tells, so any guidance gratefully received.

[Tal]

53 views and no posts. Normally, it's minutes before I get a cacophony of laughter in my ear, when I posted a hand I've played.

Hmmm...

May I sweeten the deal of posting a picture of Dan Bilzerian playing for Crystal Palace last night?

Click to see full-size image.

[cambridgealex]

OK Tal I'll give it a bash.

Preflop, I like the open K9o from the CO, totally fine assuming the button and blinds are not strong players. Once you get 3bet I would fold this hand though. It is a particularly bad hand to defend with, dominated even by his bluffs, and crushed by his value range. Though his size is on the small size, it's not an exceptionally small and it's definitely not small enough to be priced in with any two.

If you think about your overall range, and think about where K9o is in it, and then also think about the playability of it post flop in a 3bet pot, you'll see that it's somewhere near the bottom and it's always OK to fold the bottom of your range.

Peel J9s, A5s, KQo by all means, but this hand is bad in every respect, vs whoever you're playing, tight or loose, spewy or nitty.

As played. On the flop, I suppose it's OK to call one bet, but basically everything that happens now is demonstrating the reason why it's a bad peel preflop. You've flopped a non-nut draw, with a non nut backdoor draw with an overcard that we've no idea whether or not it's good if it comes. Completely guessing. But once we're hear we have to call I suppose.

We turn bingo and this is the point to consider the reasons we've done everything thus far (I'm assuming you put him on a hugely wide range hence the preflop and flop play) and now's the time to stick with those assumptions and realise we've turned the world ("world" given our hand, all non nut draws, again see preflop!) but have very poor showdown value, so just stick it in with plenty of fold equity, and outs if we get called.

Will come to the river shortly...

[cambridgealex]

It's really hard to analyse the river because this is just not a spot to get yourself in. And I know that's really unhelpful because you'll say "but what if you did find yourself in this spot", but the truth is it's much more helpful to not get yourself in this spot in the future, than to learn what to do next time you do!

I was gonna try and write about what I would do if I got in this spot, but I think that last sentence is all that needs to be said.

Don't get yourself in this spot again, then you won't need the help!

[cambridgealex]

Aside form the obvious premiums, the other types of hands we want to play are roughly two types.

1) High cards! Cards like AT, KQ that are going to flop top pair, and be great bluff catchers and dominate our opponents sometimes when they also flop top pair. These are going to win small-medium sized pots often, but shouldn't really be playing big pots.

2) Suited and connected cards - cards that can make really strong hands like flushes and straights. These hands are going to lose small pots often, but occasionally win big pots.

Hands that don't fall into either category, or half fall into either category need to be thrown in the muck. K9o is very much half a "high card hand", and T4s for example is half a "suited and connected" hand. These hands are bad hands to play!

[Tal]

Thanks for that.

Yes, when I went through the hand myself afterwards, shoving the turn jumped out at me.

It's an odd thing to say, but I have played live poker for quite a few years now (and a lot of chess, too) and you sort of get a sense sometimes as to when someone feels uneasy about their hand. That's often what motivates me to get involved in these spots and, yes, before I know it, I'm in a foul river spot for the chip lead!

Thoughts on a 4bet? Logically seems better than calling?

It's rare for me to call a 3 bet with a hand like K9, but I'm deepish and have position. I have considered recently about whether I fold to 3bets too often in position. You're right, of course, about hand selection. That's obviously back to first principles.

I love that the very concept of playing this river of mine is so offensive to you that you can't even imagine yourself hypothetically being in the seat



Thanks again, though.

[cambridgealex]

Lol you know it's not that - I was making the point that it's better to focus on not getting in that situation than to worry about what happens when you get there next time. You fix a) there's no need to worry about b) sort of thing...

I know exactly what you mean about the "knowing someone's at it" moment in live poker. Any good live player does. So yes, I would WAY rather 4bet this to exploit him rather than call.

"Deepish, in position" are fine arguments for calling some other parts of our range (the types of hands mentioned above) but not this one.

[shipitgood]

Fold>4 bet> Call

[Tal]

Lol you know it's not that - I was making the point that it's better to focus on not getting in that situation than to worry about what happens when you get there next time. You fix a) there's no need to worry about b) sort of thing...

Absolutely. Noted.

I know exactly what you mean about the "knowing someone's at it" moment in live poker. Any good live player does. So yes, I would WAY rather 4bet this to exploit him rather than call.

Fold>4 bet> Call

Yes, I think that's definitely something to take forward. It's what I'd tell someone else without a moment's hesitation.

What kind of size? 15k?

"Deepish, in position" are fine arguments for calling some other parts of our range (the types of hands mentioned above) but not this one.

Noted.

[George2Loose]

Fold>4 bet> Call

Fold- don't even need an order after you get 3 bet.

[cambridgealex]

Fold>4 bet> Call

Fold- don't even need an order after you get 3 bet.

Not true. For example Tom Som once 3bet me when I held K2s and I knew he was at it, hell, I even knew he'd 5bet if I 4bet. So I 4bet then 6b jammed and he tossed his junk so fast into the muck you could blink and you'd miss it.

It's just wrong to say that these live reads and instincts shouldn't be acted upon. These are by a million miles the biggest edges in live poker.

[George2Loose]

Well yeh obv if there's a dynamic or we sense something. I was just talking in general playing in a live low BI comp

[SuuPRlim]

superb advice from alex imo, couldnt add anything if i tried

It's just wrong to say that these live reads and instincts shouldn't be acted upon. These are by a million miles the biggest edges in live poker.

Im huge proponent of this, smart guy like you Tal your first instincts will rarely be wrong.

[shipitgood]

Hey Tal. Re 4 betting, would only do it if we had a really good read. Which we don't have at this point.  We do after this hand though. Really interesting he showed his 3 6 off! He'd Defo be a good candidate 2 4 bet in the future. It's very unlikely, he would ever 5 bet without having it, but overall, read less just fold this particular hand. After calling pre, I'd also fold the flop. Alex's posts are excellent and sums the hand up really well.

[tikay]

Superb analysis by Alex, thanks.

It's just basics, yes, but it's a rare treat to see it explained so well.