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DropTheHammer
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« on: July 21, 2015, 08:09:40 PM » |
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Billy Hills have devised a premier league finishing position predictor game. It costs 2 quid to enter and if you manage to predict the finishing positions of all 20 teams, you win £50m.
There are also two £100k prizes on offer; one for the closest if the £50m isn't won and another one awarded at some point in the season for whoever is closest at that juncture.
This seems much better value than the 14million to 1 chance of winning the lotto - am I mad to think about using the max entries allowed (250)?
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Doobs
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« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2015, 08:21:54 PM » |
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If i could choose any position what price would you think is a fair price for just predicting the finishing position of Newcastle?
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Doobs
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« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2015, 08:28:01 PM » |
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If I was to give you just a lousy 2/1 on you getting this right for each and every team, the accumulator would pay 3.4 billion to 1.
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2015, 08:38:07 PM » |
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So the odds of copping the lot are astronomical. Over 3.4bn? Even though there are teams that have no chance of winning, or being relegated?
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JohnCharver
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« Reply #4 on: July 21, 2015, 09:02:33 PM » |
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So the odds of copping the lot are astronomical. Over 3.4bn? Even though there are teams that have no chance of winning, or being relegated?
3.4bn was a massive underestimate. |
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mulhuzz
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« Reply #5 on: July 21, 2015, 09:06:09 PM » |
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Assuming the drawing of lots to place teams, you're looking at around 3x10^18 ways.
(Actually, it's 2.43 not 3, but at these magnitudes, 2.43 and 3 are the same number...)
That's :
1 in 3000000000000000000 of being right.
For the lottery at 1 in 14000000 I know where I'd rather be.
You have to add in so many many magnitudes of fixedness (e.g Man City always finish top 5, Chelsea always top 3, etc) that you get no where near getting to the price you need still because the first number is so large.
A statistician can confirm, but I think what I'm getting at is that you need to take away more degrees of freedom than you have.
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Tal
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2015, 09:10:01 PM » |
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Got restricted to 20p  Went with Spurs 4th and @***nil 5th. #5million |
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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Doobs
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« Reply #7 on: July 21, 2015, 09:13:46 PM » |
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So the odds of copping the lot are astronomical. Over 3.4bn? Even though there are teams that have no chance of winning, or being relegated?
Well Chelsea will be less than 2/1 for first and maybe Man City are less than 2/1 to be 2nd. I haven't looked but guess there is somebody close to 2/1 to be last. There is nobody close to 2/1 to be 10th though. So my calculation is a big underestimate. Lol at getting restricted on this, especially if you put Spurs above arsenal. Ice cream forever with that alone! |
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Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
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Matt.NFFC.
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« Reply #8 on: July 21, 2015, 09:18:58 PM » |
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It won't take many perms to get the top 5 right....a few more to get the bottom 5 right, and as for the rest.....forget it.
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Tal
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« Reply #9 on: July 21, 2015, 09:29:37 PM » |
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Lol at getting restricted on this, especially if you put Spurs above arsenal. Ice cream forever with that alone!
Me? The 13th Duke of Wimbourne? Getting restricted by a bookmaker on a £2 twenty-time accumulator? With my reputation? Just imagine the consequences!  |
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
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mulhuzz
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« Reply #10 on: July 21, 2015, 09:37:40 PM » |
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It won't take many perms to get the top 5 right....a few more to get the bottom 5 right, and as for the rest.....forget it.
Even if you say there are definitely 5 teams who will finish top 5 in some order and defo 5 teams in bottom 5 in some order, you have 52254720000 combos which is 5bn and change. |
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TightEnd
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« Reply #11 on: July 21, 2015, 09:40:07 PM » |
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Can see how this will be a good acquisition tool. Not many are going to work out the numbers. Just like the lottery it is a tax on the ice cream. Only more so. Do we think hills would take out insurance on the payout?
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« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 09:43:45 PM by TightEnd »
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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DropTheHammer
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« Reply #12 on: July 21, 2015, 10:04:33 PM » |
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Can see how this will be a good acquisition tool. Not many are going to work out the numbers. Just like the lottery it is a tax on the ice cream. Only more so. Do we think hills would take out insurance on the payout?
Not many can work out the numbers! I'm certain they'll have taken insurance out on the £50m. But they'll be paying out a minimum of £200k anyway. |
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mulhuzz
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« Reply #13 on: July 21, 2015, 11:27:15 PM » |
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Can't imagine they will have taken insurance if they are being quoted anything like 20% of the total.
Can't imagine they'd be happy with even paying 5% (2.5m) and I don't see them being quoted lower!
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