Strictly Come Dancing 2015 cleaning up at the bookies thread

[Tal]

A-MAY-ZING!

Anton shows just how good he is in tails.

By far the most complicated routine of the series.

[AndrewT]

A-MAY-ZING!

I only wish Bet365 did printed betting vouchers so I could kiss it.

Though, paired with Anton that's always going to be one of your top dances.

[TightEnd]

i don't know who has gone but would expect kirsty to go tonight

she has really had a rough deal. her VTlast night ( i hate the training VTs during the show, get on with it) said that they wanted their paso to have a real spanish element

so why the f do they get given beautiful day by U2. its not a paso song! it hasn't got a paso rhythm.2/4 timing i believe

meanwhile carol "apple of the bbc's eye" kirkwood gets traditional paso music and can get in the mood and the pro pasha can flare his nostrils and basically help her put on a show

kirsty was quite right to call out the song choice, which was ridiculous. she does suffer from a touch of the gabby logan's though, which i expect is offputting

[Tal]

Christina makes a mistake! That's cooked his goose, surely?

[TightEnd]

I smell a rat. He seemed resigned to leaving before the dance off

[AndrewT]

First the rugby, now Daniel leaving - a bad day for Ireland get worse.

The only way it could deteriorate further would be if U2 forced another album onto everyone's iPhones.

[Tal]

I smell a rat. He seemed resigned to leaving before the dance off

If the producers wanted Kirsty to stay, they've got a funny way of showing it!

[TightEnd]

Ainsley and Natalie are doing the Jive to Bill Haley and the Comets Shake Rattle and Roll

Anita and Gleb are dancing the Tango to Temper Trap’s Sweet Disposition

Carol and Pasha are dancing the Viennese Waltz to Seal’s I’ve Been Loving You Too Long

Georgia and Giovanni are dancing the Salsa to Sylvester’s You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real)

Helen and Aljaz are doing the Quickstep to Diana Ross and the Supremes’ You Can’t Hurry Love

Jamelia and Tristan are dancing the Foxtrot to Celine Dion’s Because You Loved Me

Jay and Aliona are doing the Paso to Bon Jovi’s It's My Life

Jeremy and Karen are dancing the Waltz to Elvis Costello’s She

Katie and Anton are dancing the Salsa to Michael Buble’s It Had Better Be Tonight

Kellie and Kevin are doing the Jive to One Direction’s One Way Or Another

Kirsty and Brendan are dancing the Viennese Waltz to David Gray’s This Year’s Love

And Peter and Janette are dancing the Rumba to Ed Sheeran’s Thinking Out Loud

[AndrewT]

So in what way is it Seal's I've Been Loving You Too Long, and One Direction's One Way or Another, and yet it's Sylvester's You Make Me Feel Mighty Real?

Why not Jimmy Somerville's You Make Me Feel Mighty Real?

Even the Elvis Costello song is a Charles Aznavour cover

I'm sure the BBC are out to send me on tilt every week.

In riggaments news, I see Plastic Peter gets the song with the video showing a romantic style Strictly dance (that has 770 million views on Youtube) for him to do his romantic Strictly dance.

[Tal]

Click to see full-size image.

Kirsty gets actual dance!

Plus, if her head isn't right, she can say she was doing her David Gray impression. Should get the post red zone bounce in votes this week anyway. Suspect she will be one of the favourites to go but will likely be looking elsewhere.

I don't get how Jamelia is going to do a foxtrot to that. She gets the bum draw this week. Training footage will be worth looking at. Is she in trainers again?

First instinct is Georgia's salsa will be too fast but I'll have to see her footage. She has done jive and quickstep already but salsa is all about hip rotation and technique, which I can see being a challenge for her. It's not like she got any practice at doing latin basics in the rumba (ahem...Mr Choreographer, Giovanni!).

[Doobs]

I think I am getting resigned to doing my money on Jay.

Jay well and truly messes up, meanwhile on digital spy

Week 4: Which was your favourite couple?

Ainsley & Natalie
6
1.57%

Anita & Gleb
34
8.90%
 


Carol & Pasha
12
3.14%
 
Daniel & Kristina
5
1.31%

Georgia & Giovanni
33
8.64%
 
Helen & Aljaz
18
4.71%
 
Jamelia & Tristan
43
11.26%
 
Jay & Aliona
100
26.18%
 
Jeremy & Karen
10
2.62%
 
Katie & Anton
97
25.39%
 
Kellie & Kevin
17
4.45%
 
Kirsty & Brendan
2
0.52%
 
Peter & Janette
5
1.31%

There is a thread on there which starts
Kirsty..... I didn't put a foot wrong
I haven't read it, but suspect Tal should avert his eyes!

116 replies so far, am setting the line at 1-2 for the positive ones

[Tal]

Here we go, then.

Highest Scorer

We are starting to see the pack catching up as those with no dance experience show promise and learn the skills. This logically means there's a higher chance of a chop at the top, so we should be thinking of where the value might be.

Peter has to do a slow dance, which we haven't seen him try yet. I expect him to have hips but the mood of the dance is going to be a challenge, after a run of quick and intense dances (randomly selected, I am sure) in the early weeks. We will find out tonight whether he is a genuine contender for the glitter ball tonight, IMO. The rumba is by far the hardest dance for men - a lot of apparent inactivity but you have to keep fluid motion through the body and soft hips with a straight leg, which will feel unnatural but looks great - so anything above 28 would be a serious score. This early, I'd add 4 to any male rumba score for a rough idea of how he does.

Katie has an interesting dance tonight. Anton's last choreography for a latin was the Pretty Woman cha cha of week three, which was heavily and rightly chastised for a lack of content. Anton is not the most natural salsa dancer and he won't have danced the salsa at all outside Strictly; it isn't part of the traditional ten dances and Anton would almost exclusively be in ballroom competitions anyway. However, the judges will be watching and he needs to produce a decent dance for Katie, who has great legs and a natural rhythm, so she should be able to do well tonight. Expect lots of "armography", but that means there are risks of it going wrong as one of them (and it could be either - Anton himself admitted making a mistake in their Viennese Waltz last week) loses timing. I'd not want to be backing her to top the leaderboard two weeks on the bounce.

Jay is comically short again. He will deliver a good Paso - he strikes me as being a good character dancer - but 7/4 is bonkers. 5/2 would be on the tight side of fair. Doobs's post above suggests the bookies are taking bets on Jay, which explains why we shouldn't be following suit. I don't like the song as a Paso, but Aliona is adamant it works. Aliona is putting too much content in her choreography for Jay, in my view. He would be better off with less to remember and doing it well.

Kellie's jive looks fantastic. She is a very serious contender IMO. However, her greatest asset is also her biggest threat: Kevin. The smartest pro dancers on Strictly (off the top of my head, Matthew Cutler, Ola Jordan, Lilya Kopylova, Darren Bennett, Artem Chigvintsev, Brendan Cole, Natalie Lowe) take a little off the sharpness of their dancing, particularly in latin, so that their partner looks the same as them. It's called underdancing. Looking at their training, I'm seeing the same problem as Suzanna Reid had with Kevin, as his kicks and flicks are supremely sharp (start later, finish earlier), which masks how good Kellie's are. She will still score well but the syncopation in the side by side parts of the jive might not look as good as it actually is.

Georgia continues to be solid and unspectacular. I don't expect her to be any different tonight. I still believe she struggles with quicker stuff and this salsa feels quick and involved. She will be fine but 6/1 to top the leaderboard is no price at all.

Anita has a lot going for her and I do anticipate she will go deep in this series. However, this doesn't feel like her dance to me. The tango will be like Georgia and solid, with lots to like and a few bits to improve upon. Gleb is pushing her, no question, and I would think upper twenties again is realistic.

Helen has been criticised for her ballet legs. She is going to be very good at a light touch quickstep. Aljaž can glide her across the floor and her long, rangy legs will carry her effortlessly. They have excellent chemistry and put the hours in to refine the technical bits...and this dance has a lot of detail, the execution of which is what separates an excellent quickstep from a good one. 6/1 is not bad at all. It isn't a world beating price but it's better than I expected. I had her at 5/1 ish and with Jay being falsely short, there's room for a bet here, I think.

Next Elimination

Obvious stuff is obvious.

Jeremy will be worst but will survive thanks to the public. Carol might go but you feel it's a week or two too soon for the darling of the BBC to waltz off awkwardly into the sunset.

Kirsty is 5/4 favourite and I think that's massively out of line. There is often a bounce after being in the dance off: the contestant has a new incentive and the public don't want to lose someone. She has been in the media a lot this week (front page of the metro yesterday, interview with the Daily Mail in the week, a few charity things), which will help her exposure. She has also found a dance she really likes and she's very good at pivots, which, in the Viennese Waltz, is very important. She has a strong core that will enable her to keep frame and posture intact. Against that, Brendan has had a family issue this week, if reports are accurate, and they have not been able to do much training. I expect her to stay nonetheless.

Ainsley's jive will look awful next to Kellie's but he might be funny enough to stop in. Just.

The one I really like to go next is Jamelia. She's been in the dance off before so we know votes are an issue. She is doing a foxtrot which she doesn't look suited to at all. The music is bizarre and I believe she will struggle. 7/1 with betway but 6/1 with actual bookies. I like this.

Cliffs
Helen to be top tonight
Jamelia to go.
Each 6/1

[AndrewT]

Kirsty's price to go really is ridiculous - who is she likely to be in a dance off with that is going to be better than her? Carol, Ainsley, Jeremy she wins against. Are Anita, or anyone higher up the leaderboard going to be unpopular enough to finish in the bottom two?

Essentially, the 5/4 on Kirsty is a bet that she's in the dance off against Jamelia and loses.

[Tal]

Kirsty's price to go really is ridiculous - who is she likely to be in a dance off with that is going to be better than her? Carol, Ainsley, Jeremy she wins against. Are Anita, or anyone higher up the leaderboard going to be unpopular enough to finish in the bottom two?

Essentially, the 5/4 on Kirsty is a bet that she's in the dance off against Jamelia and loses.

Exactly my thoughts. She won't get much more grace though.

[Doobs]

Kirsty's price to go really is ridiculous - who is she likely to be in a dance off with that is going to be better than her? Carol, Ainsley, Jeremy she wins against. Are Anita, or anyone higher up the leaderboard going to be unpopular enough to finish in the bottom two?

Essentially, the 5/4 on Kirsty is a bet that she's in the dance off against Jamelia and loses.

Think she loses to Ainsley.  She really isnt popular, so not convinced she beats Jeremy even if better than him.  i'd happily take evens next week if she doesn't go this week.