Big final table spot

[bergeroo]

Hand is from the final table of the Big 109 on Stars. Villain is a very good reg imo, for sure one of the best players who registered this tournament. Of the other two players, one is very bad and seems likely to be not ICM aware, the other seems solid and OK but I don't really know him. Payout structure is normal for a Stars Big and we are playing pretty shallow.

The good reg has been short or medium stack for a lot of the final and not playing too laggy or aggro, but then got the chiplead five handed and opened up somewhat. We haven't been battling too much and most/all of the pots between us with him in position have been kept small with him checking back fourth pair, queen high and stuff like that and not bluffing me or messing with me much as far as I'm aware and me mostly trying to get to showdown. I've been medium stack for the whole final so I have been playing on the tighter side.

Seat 1: Bad player (649901 in chips)
Seat 4: bergeroo (543567 in chips)
Seat 8: Good reg (1134191 in chips)
Seat 9: Solid player (744341 in chips)
Bad player : posts the ante 3750
bergeroo: posts the ante 3750
Good reg: posts the ante 3750
Solid player : posts the ante 3750
bergeroo: posts small blind 15000
Good reg: posts big blind 30000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bergeroo [ ]
Solid player : folds
Bad player : folds
bergeroo: calls 15000
Good reg: checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
bergeroo: bets 37500
Good reg: calls 37500
*** TURN *** [ ] []
bergeroo: checks
Good reg: bets 75000
bergeroo: calls 75000
*** RIVER *** [ ] []

For some reason I didn't copy the river but I check and the villain shoves. At this point the pot is around 300k and I have 400k left in my stack and he overbets to put me all in.

Obviously it is a great spot for him to put ICM pressure on me and unfortunately the way I've played this hand I've given him the opportunity to do that. We can both definitely have a king in our range. Though you'd expect him to raise his better kings pre, so I have more of them/all of them if I am limping my entire range that I choose to play.

However he is in a great spot with us three all having shorter stacks and the ideal strategy for him would seem to be to try to whittle us all down and keep control with the chiplead stack so it seems like a risk for him to shove as a bluff here. Other question is would he shove with a worse 8 than me here?

Do you agree with how I got to the river here and should I call/fold to his shove?

payouts
4th $7,372.80
3rd $9,830.40
2nd $13,137.92
1st $18,432.00

[rfgqqabc]

I'd fold. Think you play it fine too, not a street I'd change. Probably just bet 1bb otf but somewhat moot. I might even just check here although it's not quite gto, I'm not sure we would be trying to stab vs a good reg all that much even with the range advantage we have.

There is a pretty wide range of good regs so names would be useful, whilst I think it's a bit meh on 2+2 if your going to give a detailed read on him u don't think it is the case here.

If you check all kings otf then we might have to call here. I don't think you should.

[bergeroo]

Opponent is DonkCommited

[rfgqqabc]

I was going to come into the topic and say that because he didnt raise preflop we can discount a bunch of Kx combos and shoving Kx on the river in our opponents spot doesn't make that much sense. Even with K2, we just can't expect our opponent to hero call for his life so I was going to say he is just trying to icm coffin us and its kinda transparent looking back.

However, as soon as I loaded the topic up I just see the dryness of KK8 and the lack of any real hands that should float. People do play a minimum defense frequency style of play now, and this might mean he does have more floats than you would expect, but I just don't see this being a board where that concept really applies, a bunch of the less playable Ax shoves pre, (this might be true for the Kx too which is a factor I hadn't yet considered) so now our opponents floats consist of something with either a) two overcards to the 8 (JT/QT/QJ) all seem like reasonable floats and would presumably be in his checking range pre. I assume we think good regs will jam a kind of weird, messy, nonlinear range; where they might check K9o but jam K4o or 65s and I personally think the broadway hands above are a decent candidate to check instead of shoving. This turned into a bit of a splurge of thoughts and not much actual solid conclusions so I'm not sure if it will help that much. I also feel like if he did have the QJ/QT hands he probably wouldn't decide to bet turn/rip river, when he has plenty of SD value leading me more and more to think folding as the right option. My only concern is that he feels the population would check Kx on the flop, despite the range advantage we have, meaning we should probably bet 100% of our limping range here.
 
I'd have just ripped pre I think. We are 4/4 and a good reg will perhaps overestimate his edge vs the field and overfold in a bid to close it out in a low variance fasion. Seems like the best option vs a good reg. I was somewhat surprised by the conclusions when running it through HRC. Its an exactly b/e shove if he calls Nash, and I was somewhat surprised by how tight Nash was in his position. For example, KJo is breakeven vs your Nash jamming range, and that feels kinda absurd to me. Lol icm as always. If he calls wider than Nash the range we should jam becomes much much tighter. If he calls 16.9% instead of Nash (15.4) we go from jamming 42.9% to 31.2%.

These figures changed a little bit when i went from ICM to Future Game Simulation but I think this is long enough now and a lot of value comes from playing about with these things yourself

[rfgqqabc]

Anyone?

[DMorgan]

I'd have shoved pre for the simple reason that you get to put him in an ICM coffin rather than him doing it to you. Especially with a weak player sitting 2/4 he's in such a good spot that he has very little incentive to call with a range that makes me uncomfortable about shoving here

As played, taking this line with Kx I think would be a really sick good play but one that I wouldn't imagine that a lot of people do? Rightly or wrongly in his spot I wouldn't be giving you much Kx at all and thats why he can just jam river.

Not trying to single you out and I haven't played a NL MTT for a good while so I'm not in touch with how these games play especially in limped pots BvB but it feels like a spot where a lot people would claim that they play their Kx this way but in reality they can't really help themselves checking flop or betting turn, hence villain can just jam this river with whatever he got there with.

I'm kind of mangling this explanation but if I'm in his spot I'm jamming river with T9ss and expecting to get folds almost always and if I get snapped by Kx I feel so so so owned.

[mondatoo]

I wouldn't jam.

Nash v Nash with no edges his calling range is : (14.2%) 55+,A6s+,A8o+,KTs+,KQo

But BB is good and it's very obv that you don't jam the top of your range here so if your jamming range includes T8o and you don't jam the top of you range then your range would be something like : 77-22,ATs-A2s,AJo-A2o,K2s+,K8o+,Q4s+,Q9o+,J5s+,J8o+,T6s+,T8o+,96s+,98o,85s+,75s+,65s,54s

So now BB could call with a +0.05 edge with : (19.6%) 55+,A2s+,A6o+,K9s+,KTo+,QJs

If he is calling that wide then T8o now becomes a -0.07 jam. Most regs won't call that wide for sure but since it's at best going to be a b/e jam and it's possible you'll get called off wider but a good reg isn't likely to be tighter I don't like jamming.