paddy power and Betfair to merge

[AlunB]

Wonder who is next?  Hills and 365?

Amaya to buy 365?

I would say nobody could afford 365, but then I thought that about PokerStars

How much you think 365 is worth on the open market Alun?

We're waiting on results to Mar 2015 so hard to say, but based on 2014 profits and a same multiple as Amaya it would be £3.5bn. So assuming growth and maybe reducing multiple a little due to, erm, less sustainable revenue mix I think that number is probably still about right

[arbboy]

Excellent post arbboy.

It's not my post Keith.  I copied and pasted from the betfair forum just for clarity.

[Chompy]

Was the headline 'Non-bookmaker take over non-exchange'?

At least there's still Betdaq. Oh, hang on, Ladbrokes took that over. A while ago now. And literally did nothing with it. It's almost like they want Betdaq to fizzle out.

A Luton pokerer sayed after the takeover that perhaps we'll see in-running terminals in Ladbrokes shop now. What a quaint idea.

Maybe PP will have Betfair IR terminals in their shops? With no PC? In place of FOBTs?

[arbboy]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/leisure/11824630/Paddy-Power-should-have-put-a-wager-on-its-own-merger-with-Betfair.html

[Doobs]

Wonder who is next?  Hills and 365?

Amaya to buy 365?

I would say nobody could afford 365, but then I thought that about PokerStars

How much you think 365 is worth on the open market Alun?

We're waiting on results to Mar 2015 so hard to say, but based on 2014 profits and a same multiple as Amaya it would be £3.5bn. So assuming growth and maybe reducing multiple a little due to, erm, less sustainable revenue mix I think that number is probably still about right

The growth at stars is stalling, and that isn't the case with b365. I'd probably price b365 at quite a bit more.  Betfair p/e is close to 30 for instance, albeit on the back of a takeover. You could argue b365 is at least as succesful.  They'd have no trouble selling out at 3.5bn anyway.

[AlunB]

Wonder who is next?  Hills and 365?

Amaya to buy 365?

I would say nobody could afford 365, but then I thought that about PokerStars

How much you think 365 is worth on the open market Alun?

We're waiting on results to Mar 2015 so hard to say, but based on 2014 profits and a same multiple as Amaya it would be £3.5bn. So assuming growth and maybe reducing multiple a little due to, erm, less sustainable revenue mix I think that number is probably still about right

The growth at stars is stalling, and that isn't the case with b365. I'd probably price b365 at quite a bit more.  Betfair p/e is close to 30 for instance, albeit on the back of a takeover. You could argue b365 is at least as succesful.  They'd have no trouble selling out at 3.5bn anyway.

Yeah I broadly agree with you. And could easily see it being worth more. Sky Bet sold at around 16x historic profits.

That said 11x is a pretty good multiple for a private company with chunky unregulated revenues. There is a discount applied on those normally, and GVC trades at a much lower PE than peer group for example.

But yeah, what's it worth? £4bn or even £5bn is not unlikely or unreasonable especially if it's growing at 15-20%.

[arbboy]

So a merged lolbrokes and joke coral are still only effectively the 4th biggest firm now in the uk?

[AlunB]

So a merged lolbrokes and joke coral are still only effectively the 4th biggest firm now in the uk?

If you mean online then yes.

[arbboy]

With your 365 valuation, PP and bf joint market cap and hills mkt cap are they not still 4th overall not just their online business but the whole company value?  Or are they bigger combined than hills on a valuation basis?  Lads only worth £1bn (coral really worth more than £2bn) to make them bigger combined than hills?

[AlunB]

With your 365 valuation, PP and bf joint market cap and hills mkt cap are they not still 4th overall not just their online business but the whole company value?  Or are they bigger combined than hills on a valuation basis?  Lads only worth £1bn (coral really worth more than £2bn) to make them bigger combined than hills?

Yeah good point. I was thinking more in terms of revenue/market share. But yeah.

[SuperJez]

People like Andrew Black, Mark Davies and Mick Stone understood the change they were making to the world of betting. It was truly a revolution.

Please spare the jizz fest over betfair founders.  They are responsible for the biggest ever confiscation (8 figures) of money in online gambling.  Money being taken back directly out of peoples banks etc.  The decisions came from "the very top".  As pathetic and thief like as you can get.

I had a ton more respect for paddy power than I do betfair.  They have acted with a lot more class and thought for the punters over the years.  I agree the amounts you can get on at each of the sportsbooks are pathetic.  I will say this though, at least paddy power/betfair sportsbook appear not to close accounts for being smart at sports betting.  There is quite a significant difference in being limited to very small amounts and having your account fully closed/limited to 0.00 ala stan james/coral/vc etc.

Mergers are never good for the customers and although I am reading at the moment both brands will continue to be run separately I imagine that will change a few years down the line.  Very disappointed at this news today.

[arbboy]

People like Andrew Black, Mark Davies and Mick Stone understood the change they were making to the world of betting. It was truly a revolution.

Please spare the jizz fest over betfair founders.  They are responsible for the biggest ever confiscation (8 figures) of money in online gambling.  Money being taken back directly out of peoples banks etc.  The decisions came from "the very top".  As pathetic and thief like as you can get.

I had a ton more respect for paddy power than I do betfair.  They have acted with a lot more class and thought for the punters over the years.  I agree the amounts you can get on at each of the sportsbooks are pathetic. I will say this though, at least paddy power/betfair sportsbook appear not to close accounts for being smart at sports betting.  There is quite a significant difference in being limited to very small amounts and having your account fully closed/limited to 0.00 ala stan james/coral/vc etc.

Mergers are never good for the customers and although I am reading at the moment both brands will continue to be run separately I imagine that will change a few years down the line.  Very disappointed at this news today.

I will repeat again this is not written by me.  It was copied and pasted from the betfair forum this morning.

Huge lolzzzzzzz at the bolded section of your post.  What is the difference?  I would prefer to have my account fully closed so they can't spin the pr and say 'we don't close winner's accounts' when they limit you to 43p on an odds on shot.  What do betfair and power 'close' accounts for then if it is not being smart at sports betting just out of interest?

I assume the 8 figure confiscation refers to the premium charge?

[vegaslover]

Can anyone see a new competitor in the more original betfair model, or has the market become too mature or too expensive to start-up in?

[SuperJez]

What do betfair and power 'close' accounts for then if it is not being smart at sports betting just out of interest?

I am not privvy to how their security departments operate so I have no idea.  I do know of a few things over the years that resulted in account closures though, all of which you couldn't blame them for.

I take your point that you would rather they closed your account to make it a bit harder for them to spin PR.  They would, however, trot out the oft use line that it is "only a very small percentage of accounts" that suffer from being closed.  To me its quite a significant difference between being restricted small or closed and it changes how I feel about a company.

BBC News an hour or two ago cocked up this story bigtime.  They showed pictures of Paddy Power and...........baldy betfred shops haha

[SuperJez]

I assume the 8 figure confiscation refers to the premium charge?

No, nor does it refer to the SNG bug that an update to the old pokerchamps software introduced.  It refers to the infamous happy hour.  They charged back winnings already paid and took money out of peoples bank accounts somehow.  They also just removed money from the thn UKGC licenced sportsbook accounts.  Many UK players have been successful in court sueing for the money.  This is all from people who played fair by their rules and did nothing wrong.  Betfair idiots.  I am of the opinion it was an attempt to raise the (then just floated) share price by increasing deposits hugely.

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