Math question on predicting correct scores

[DaveShoelace]

Back at an old job years ago we did this thing called 'The Black Book' where about 30 of us had eight of the weekend's football fixtures emailed to us, and we had to predict the correct result and score. You got 2 points for a correct result, and 5 points in total if you managed to predict the exact score.

So If you predicted Man U 2 Swansea 0 this week, you would have got 2 points for a correct result, but if you predicted Man u 2 Swansea 1, you would have got 5 points (2 for the win, 3 for the correct score).

My strategy was really simple, I simply went 2-0 to whoever I thought was the best team in each fixture. No deviations, always 2-0 and in most cases it was either 2-0 to the home team or highest ranked team in the league. Over several years I did really really well in the Black Book, pretty certain I was the biggest winner overall, and I figured that it was a sound strategy because 2-0 was a pretty common score that was likely to occur a couple of times each week.

This was over a decade ago and I was reminded of it this week. So I wanted to turn it over to you mathematically minded folks and professional gamblers. Was this actually a +EV strategy? Or was it just flukey?

[cambridgealex]

I was thinking about making a thread along these lines today too.

I don't have an answer for your question exactly, but I've been following the BBC thingy where "Lawro" predicts the weekends scores vs a guest. Now they've got a super computer doing it as well.

It surprised me that this weeks guest (forget name but a MOTD commentator predicted 5 or 6 games as ridiculously unlikely 3-2, 2-2, 4-1 type scores.

The super computer ALWAYS goes for 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 0-0 which makes sense. There's almost never a game where it's more likely to be 3-0 than 2-0. So why so called experts make these whacky predictions (with no implied odds for binking an unlikely scoreline) confused me.

[cambridgealex]

I don't think your strategy sounds like the most optimum one Dave. It might have been the most optimal in the player group though!

I'm sure that following the super computer and never going with a >3goal scoreline is gonna be sound though.

[cambridgealex]

Even in a game like Man Utd/ Sheffield Utd next week FA Cup, it's 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 in order of most likely outcomes.

[Doobs]

I pretty much do this for every world cup/euro championship prediction comp.  Tend to mix it up a bit with the odd 1-0. 

[arbboy]

just pick the shortest price for each game every week on betfair.  Nothing complex about the strategy.  You don't get paid more by selecting shock results so just pick the most likely outcome in each game.  Simples.

Your strat is sound Dave but not optimal.  You will still win most comps like this doing what you do.  You will win even more doing what i say because 1-1 will be shorter than 2-0 fav in some games.

[Graham C]

Few years ago my mates Dad did really well on betting 3-1 on games shown on Sky.  Not sure if he still does it but it paid OK for a while for sure.

[vegaslover]

I was thinking about making a thread along these lines today too.

I don't have an answer for your question exactly, but I've been following the BBC thingy where "Lawro" predicts the weekends scores vs a guest. Now they've got a super computer doing it as well.

It surprised me that this weeks guest (forget name but a MOTD commentator predicted 5 or 6 games as ridiculously unlikely 3-2, 2-2, 4-1 type scores.

The super computer ALWAYS goes for 2-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 or 0-0 which makes sense. There's almost never a game where it's more likely to be 3-0 than 2-0. So why so called experts make these whacky predictions (with no implied odds for binking an unlikely scoreline) confused me.

I look at that Lawro sometimes and agree that there are quite a lot of 'out there' predictions.
Saw some mid-season review for the prem and that SAM computer saying that Everton basically wouldn't be any worse off without Lukaku!! That for me shows how stats need to be interpreted at times.

[TightEnd]

Liverpool FC are unbeaten in Lawro's league...

http://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/Leicester-City-Premier-League-table-based-Mark/story-28509656-detail/story.html.