F1: The 2016 season

[Evilpengwinz]

Hamilton says the "halo" head protection is "the worst-looking mod in F1 history" and safety is "fine as it is" https://instagram.com/p/BCgW_mcr01r/

Valentino Rossi says helmets are the "Worst-looking mod in MotoGP history", and that he won't wear one during races...

Yeah, not a fan of Hamilton coming out and saying that. At all.

Don't put any dollar on Mclaren, Red Bull or Renault this year. But do wager some bets on Torro Rosso, they will be very strong at some circuits. Ta

For Australia, +1.

From what I've read, it seems like McLaren still have a very good chassis, and although Honda have made some improvements, it's still a similar situation to last year for them with being down on top speed, but to a slightly lesser extent, and with massively improved reliability. Therefore, there could still be value backing McLaren for points on some of the slower tracks (e.g. Monaco, Hungary, Singapore), while they might qualify behind Manor(!) at circuits like Monza, and Mexico if those races took place tomorrow. Might be tempted by the overs on number of drivers classified early on in the season if the bookies don't adjust to the improved reliability from testing, too.

Toro Rosso running a year old Ferrari engine worries me. I'm not sure what the rules are regarding engine tokens etc. with a year old engine, so I'd definitely look into that before placing any bets for the season, because of how it could affect their ability to develop the car throughout the season. Are they running whatever was in the back of the Ferrari in Brazil last season, for the duration of the season? Don't know how much it'll handicap them later on, but I'd expect them to get some decent points early in the season before dropping off later on, and be relatively quick again in Hungary/Singapore where they'll be less of a disadvantage because of the engine situation.

Think the pecking order at the start of the year is likely to be:

- Mercedes
- Ferrari
---------
- Force India/Toro Rosso (Toro Rosso probably quicker in Australia, Force India for China/Bahrain/Russia)*
- Williams
- Red Bull
---------
- Renault/McLaren (McLaren probably quicker in Australia)
---------
- Haas/Sauber
- Manor

* Even though Force India are 750/1 for the Constructors' title at the moment while slower teams them are shorter priced, the issue is them having a Mercedes engine, so they'll only improve if Mercedes do too. 66/1 Williams is a complete joke lol.

As the season goes on, I expect to see Toro Rosso dropping back, while Red Bull improve (Having 'TAG Heuer' engines does, I believe, enable them to use their engine tokens etc. separately from Renault). Think Force India will take Williams' place as best of the rest, while everyone else closes up on them. Fascinating subplots all over the grid this year outside of the title picture. Expecting it to be the best season in a while. Would help if Ferrari can genuinely challenge Mercedes throughout, of course, but the last time more than 1 team realistically had a chance of winning the constructors' title was 2008, and there's tons going on outside of that this year.

I'd be very tempted to stick a few quid on drivers outside of Mercedes/Ferrari grabbing some pole positions with the tyre rule changes, again particularly if the bookies don't adjust accordingly to the rule changes early in the season. When cars had to do qualifying with the fuel they were starting the race on in the mid 2000s, it was pretty common to see teams (Toyota stands out) sticking 5 laps of fuel in to grab the pole, while other teams stuck 15 laps of fuel in the car for a full first stint. Would not be at all surprised to see the same thing with midfield teams throwing a set of the new ultra soft tyres on, or whatever the softest compound for a particular race is because it won't always be the ultra softs, then pitting on lap 3/4 of the race. They still need to be able to go quicker than the Mercedes on (probably) a slightly harder tyre that will favour race strategy more, but expect some qualifying surprises this year.

[DungBeetle]

Great post thanks.  Have Williams significantly regressed this year?  I've seen a few people say that now.

[TightEnd]

Great post thanks.  Have Williams significantly regressed this year?  I've seen a few people say that now.

more that toro rosso and force india might have caught them up

toro rosso won't be able to spend engine tokens later int he year on last year's engine so their performancde may be front end loaded

red bull may be back end loaded, as they develop through the year

Williams have evolved rather than revolutionised (already a good mercedes package, and its a year of stable regulations) so may have been caught up

we'll only know for sure next weekend.

[Evilpengwinz]

Great post thanks.  Have Williams significantly regressed this year?  I've seen a few people say that now.

more that toro rosso and force india might have caught them up

toro rosso won't be able to spend engine tokens later int he year on last year's engine so their performance may be front end loaded

red bull may be back end loaded, as they develop through the year

Williams have evolved rather than revolutionised (already a good mercedes package, and its a year of stable regulations) so may have been caught up

we'll only know for sure next weekend.

+1, was going to say the same.

Thought that might be the case with Toro Rosso/engine tokens, wasn't certain though.

[Peter-27]

If anyone is interested for this season:

http://gppredictor.com/league/join/code/7d65ddbd7cdee9cc9727d3d579edac3d

[rinswun]

First impression of this new qualifying process - terrible. Why not let all teams run for the full session, you'd have back markers getting in the way of the top teams flying laps at the end which would create more grid diversity.

Also, Mercedes are still street ahead of Ferrari. Doesn't appear the gap has closed at all.

[tikay]

Yes, the new Q system was something of an anti-climax.

Lewis looked pretty pumped up to me.

The Renault livery suggests to me that they should be sponsored by JCB.

[TightEnd]

VETTEL: "We have stepped forward. We expected them to be strong in qualifying but tomorrow will be closer"

[Peter-27]

Immediately following the qualifying session; I wrote an open letter to the FIA:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByvwAKnR2fgcbDlya2lVWkpoaHc/view

This is now on its way to the FIA & FOM headquarters.

[hummuspie]

Peter I have signed up to the link that you posted and joined the league,

What is the normal cut off point for making predictions before races?

[TightEnd]

new F1 qualifying system scrapped after Melbourne farce

good old f1. always something!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/03/19/australian-grand-prix-qualifying-farce-as-lewis-hamilton-takes-p/

[Evilpengwinz]

Despite today, I don't think it's a bad system. It just doesn't work with the current tyre/refuelling rules. If you had this system in place in 2005 where tyres had to last the entire race distance, and you started the race with the fuel you qualified on, then this would be a brilliant way of doing qualifying IMO.

The problem is that we've decided on this system a couple of weeks before the start of the season, therefore it was rushed through, and nobody had time to think these things through before today. For it to work, you need:

1) A durable tyre compound - bring a set of the hardest compound available to every race if it's suitable, or make a special Qualifying-only compound - to send the cars out for the whole of each section of qualifying with no performance dropoff, so that the time gained by fuel burn exceeds time lost from tyre degradation.
2) Ban drivers from pitting then going back out again. Once you enter the pit lane, that's your session over.
3) Mandate a minimum fuel load so that drivers can't do 1/2 flying laps on brand new tyres with 4 laps of fuel in the car, then sit in the garage for the rest of the session

Then tons of other things to consider, like:

4) Do you continue splitting qualifying into 3 sessions? Better off having a full 1 hour session IMO, send cars out at the start, eliminations after 10-15 minutes then every 2-3 minutes thereafter. If the idea is unpredictable grids, 1 set of tyres and an hour qualifying is the way to go. Massive flat spot on your tyres? Tough luck, you're going to lose time every lap for the rest of the session. Stick it in the wall, or break down after 5 laps? Maybe your time on a full tank of fuel will get you P16 if you're lucky.
5) How do you punish someone for track limits now? If you eliminate someone because they're in last place, then discover they dropped to the bottom because the person who was there before gained time by exceeding track limits, then surely just wiping out the laptime when it's too late is no good. You'd have to start disqualifying people, then handing out grid penalties on top.
6) What if there's a red flag? You're going to screw the bottom 2/3 drivers out of the opportunity to improve. I know that's always been the case with any format (See Kvyat's crash @ Suzuka last year stopping Hamilton from having a shot at pole), but it's exaggerated with this system, to the point where I think you'd need to reset the clock to 4-5 minutes before the next KO if there's a red flag.
7) If you force the drivers to use a single set of tyres for an entire session, which IMO is a prerequisite for this format to have any chance of success, what do you do in intermediate/drying conditions? Can't have cars starting on inters, then driving around on a bone dry track.

All of the preparation that needs to go into this, such as Pirelli making a suitable tyre compound for this system to work as intended and sorting out the rules, means that changing the format of qualifying 3 weeks before the start of the season is an absolute disaster.

However, if the FIA can get everything sorted for 2017, I would still be happy to see this format of qualifying (although I'd prefer a single hour long qualifying session, not split into three). It still has potential IF the FIA can get it right, but I want to see it scrapped until 2017, so to allow that to happen.

[tikay]

new F1 qualifying system scrapped after Melbourne farce

good old f1. always something!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/03/19/australian-grand-prix-qualifying-farce-as-lewis-hamilton-takes-p/

Sounds to me like they crapped themselves when they got Peter-27's letter.

[Peter-27]

Peter I have signed up to the link that you posted and joined the league,

What is the normal cut off point for making predictions before races?

Five minutes before qualifying begins.

new F1 qualifying system scrapped after Melbourne farce

good old f1. always something!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2016/03/19/australian-grand-prix-qualifying-farce-as-lewis-hamilton-takes-p/

Sounds to me like they crapped themselves when they got Peter-27's letter.

Hah! I think they should continue with the elimination system, just with some tweaking.

Someone actually sent me quite a lot of abuse on twitter after I announced that I had sent this. I do realise that it will probably have no real effect, however no-one ever inspired change by doing nothing. Needless to say the abuser is now blocked.

[tikay]

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