Pure bubble hand

[Doobs]

This was from the UKPC.

There are 100 left, 99 paid. 

Average stack is half a million.  Blinds are 8k,16k, antes 2k.  We have 87k.  Bubble has lasted an hour or so, so the room is full of real short stacks.  There have been several all ins already, one survivor had just 1 big blind when he went all in.  There is an all in on most hands.  We have just gone through the blinds and are 6 hands away from the big blind. 

The payout seems a bit odd when you are used to stars.  91-99 get 2k, 81-90 get 2.5k, and 80th is 3k.  It is then becomes flatter,  3k lasts until 63rd and it is quite some time before it gets above 6k (maybe top 20).  As the room is bound to go nuts after the bubble, I have realised that I could survive the bubble and could easily get up to 3k without even playing a hand. 

Steve Watts has a big stack, and raises to 32k from 700k or so.  He is UTG or UTG+1 and very active and not afraid to call.  It comes round to us and we see  .  We have 87k.  If we shove here, he has only to call 55k in to a 161k pot (216 after the call).     

I have been all in a few times leading up to the bubble with a stack that has been up and down above 10BBs, so he isn't going to put us on aces.  My aggression on the bubble has been mentioned at the table.  He has already laid down 55 (shown) when I shoved 8 big blinds earlier. 

Is this one of those times to do the unthinkable and fold aces pre flop? 

[WotRTheChances]

No. Doubling here is more valuable than the slim chance of busting. If you had say 1.5bb on the button i could see merit in folding AA vs an open (given you can almost certainly fold to the cash and winning an all-in to give you ~4.5bb is possibly less valuable than ICM-wise than locking up a 2x BI min-cash). I'm sure the 80+% times you increase from 5.5bb to 13bb would work out comfortable +EV looking at ICM. I'd fold JJ, AK in this spot for sure.

[pleno1]

loving life, all in. these are kind of spots we should shove wider not tighter, like if he opens something like 60% and calls tt+ak and we have 15bbs we should shove 32o in the bb.

[Pinchop73]

He has already laid down 55 (shown) when I shoved 8 big blinds earlier. 

Did Wattsy really do this?

I can't understand why we'd ever even consider folding here? Unless this bullet was our entire net worth and it was that important to cash? I'd maybe even consider a flat to make sure he def does get the other 4bb's in

[arbboy]

Nice to see you at the weekend doobs.  Think if you are not going to play aa here you shouldn't even be in your seat to ask yourself the question given other players relative stack sizes. You might as well be in your car relaxing away from the bubble stress.  

I can see arguments for playing or folding here tbh.  If you are folding then you shouldn't even be at the table.

[doubleup]

loving life, all in. these are kind of spots we should shove wider not tighter, like if he opens something like 60% and calls tt+ak and we have 15bbs we should shove 32o in the bb.

all fine advice that I'm sure would be relevant in a thread where hero had 15bbs and not one where he is getting called 100%

[doubleup]

If we say you are gambling £2.5k then your stack if you win has to be worth less than £3.13k if you win to make folding correct.

What was the average stack?  What was the prize fund?

[Doobs]

If we say you are gambling £2.5k then your stack if you win has to be worth less than £3.13k if you win to make folding correct.

What was the average stack?  What was the prize fund?

As per OP, average stack is 500,000.  Prize fund is a million.  Average stack is worth 10k (we started with 50k chips). 

I am glad that you picked up the fact I am getting called failry wide here, and this isn't easy.  If it was easy I wouldn't have posted it.

I think my stack right now must be worth 3k.  This is entirely because this isn't stars and we have this odd sitauation where we ladder really quickly after the bubble (see OP). 

I can't be exact but think 4k was the prize right from 28th to 63rd. 

So I think if I shove and win this pot my stack is not going to be worth a lot more than 3k.  Maybe it is worth 4k/4.5k, so we should shove here, though it is close enough that we should worry about it.

I think there is a 3rd way, and that is what I did.

I shoved and rather than pretend I didn't have aces, I pretty much told him I had exactly aces and that I would definitely show if he folded.  That way I have got a stack that is now worth maybe 4k without the risk of bubbling.

He folded (again) and I showed him aces.  I haven't done the maths , but think if I have only a very few AK/AQ type combos, he must call pretty much any hand here (he is getting 3/1).  I think it is only if my entire range is monster pairs that he should fold. 

Alternatively I could shove 32 off and persuade him I  can only possibly have monster pairs, but don't think I could carry it off nearly as convincingly.  Would be a hell of a play though,

[doubleup]

I pretty much told him I had exactly aces and that I would definitely show if he folded. 

In the old days you would have been taken outside by a lynchmob.... 

[tikay]

If we say you are gambling £2.5k then your stack if you win has to be worth less than £3.13k if you win to make folding correct.

What was the average stack?  What was the prize fund?

As per OP, average stack is 500,000.  Prize fund is a million.  Average stack is worth 10k (we started with 50k chips). 

I am glad that you picked up the fact I am getting called failry wide here, and this isn't easy.  If it was easy I wouldn't have posted it.

I think my stack right now must be worth 3k.  This is entirely because this isn't stars and we have this odd sitauation where we ladder really quickly after the bubble (see OP). 

I can't be exact but think 4k was the prize right from 28th to 63rd. 

So I think if I shove and win this pot my stack is not going to be worth a lot more than 3k.  Maybe it is worth 4k/4.5k, so we should shove here, though it is close enough that we should worry about it.

I think there is a 3rd way, and that is what I did.

I shoved and rather than pretend I didn't have aces, I pretty much told him I had exactly aces and that I would definitely show if he folded.  That way I have got a stack that is now worth maybe 4k without the risk of bubbling.

He folded (again) and I showed him aces.  I haven't done the maths , but think if I have only a very few AK/AQ type combos, he must call pretty much any hand here (he is getting 3/1).  I think it is only if my entire range is monster pairs that he should fold. 

Alternatively I could shove 32 off and persuade him I  can only possibly have monster pairs, but don't think I could carry it off nearly as convincingly.  Would be a hell of a play though,

Almost, the exact payouts for that finishing position band were;



27   £6,000
28   £5,000
29   £5,000
30   £5,000
31   £5,000
32   £5,000
33   £5,000
34   £5,000
35   £5,000
36   £5,000
37   £5,000
38   £5,000
39   £5,000
40   £5,000
41   £5,000
42   £5,000
43   £5,000
44   £5,000
45   £5,000
46   £4,000
47   £4,000
48   £4,000
49   £4,000
50   £4,000
51   £4,000
52   £4,000
53   £4,000
54   £4,000
55   £4,000
56   £4,000
57   £4,000
58   £4,000
59   £4,000
60   £4,000
61   £4,000
62   £4,000
63   £4,000
64   £3,000