I don't know what I'm talking about, help!!!

[theprawnidentity]

I'm fairly new to sports betting and wondered if it was possible for someone to help me out with some in-game situation maths please as I'm not really sure how to work out what I need (or if it's possible).

The home team are 1 nil up at half time.  If I know that a home team have won the 2nd half by >=1 goal in 90% of previous games and that the away team have lost by >=1goal in the last 75% of games (assuming that all my data is relevant) how would I work out what markets to look at and what would be a favourable price?  The market I looked at was Asian Handicap, Home 0.0,-0.5 but wasn't sure how to work out what the price should be.

Apologies if this is too broad a question or one that can't be answered but I'm struggling to understand the transition between the data (assuming it's accurate and relevant) and exactly how to utilise it.  Thanks in advance if anyone can help me out with this, but if its a silly question then please just tell me to gtfo.

[arbboy]

Impossible to say without knowing the prices of the game in question.  Previous games stats are totally irrelevant to this game.  I could out sprint 10 lads in the pub and be 10-0 but now i am facing Bolt.  You get my drift?

I won't tell you to gtfo but it is a silly question!

[theprawnidentity]

Yeh that's reasonable, just trying to work it out in my head and finding it difficult.  Guess it's just something I need to learn from experience!  Thanks for taking the time to respond.

[arbboy]

Most punters get sucked into meaningless short term stats on football.  Last 6 games/home form/away form.  The two most important factors in any football match when it comes to pricing it up are firstly the relative difference in quality between the two teams and secondly which team is at home.  These are the biggest two factors in the price.  What has happened in the last 6 games really makes no difference.

People that say 'team a is awesome at home never lose and team b are shit away they never win' that is because home advantage is that important that is what should happen most of the time.  It really isn't that important.  These spots usually create value exposing the obvious because so many mugs get stuck into these meaningless stats.

[DungBeetle]

Most punters get sucked into meaningless short term stats on football.  Last 6 games/home form/away form.  The two most important factors in any football match when it comes to pricing it up are firstly the relative difference in quality between the two teams and secondly which team is at home.  These are the biggest two factors in the price.  What has happened in the last 6 games really makes no difference.

People that say 'team a is awesome at home never lose and team b are shit away they never win' that is because home advantage is that important that is what should happen most of the time.  It really isn't that important.  These spots usually create value exposing the obvious because so many mugs get stuck into these meaningless stats.

Question Arb - you get teams that are good on the road and bad at home, because they have good counter attacking skills and struggle when they have to be the ones forming the pace (Watford decent example this year).  When you are a bookie does that form part of "difference in quality between teams" or is it a third/forth derivative factor tagged on at the end.  Do these factors have much impact on generic price if you were pricing a book up for Saturday?

[tikay]

I'm fairly new to sports betting and wondered if it was possible for someone to help me out with some in-game situation maths please as I'm not really sure how to work out what I need (or if it's possible).

The home team are 1 nil up at half time.  If I know that a home team have won the 2nd half by >=1 goal in 90% of previous games and that the away team have lost by >=1goal in the last 75% of games (assuming that all my data is relevant) how would I work out what markets to look at and what would be a favourable price?  The market I looked at was Asian Handicap, Home 0.0,-0.5 but wasn't sure how to work out what the price should be.

Apologies if this is too broad a question or one that can't be answered but I'm struggling to understand the transition between the data (assuming it's accurate and relevant) and exactly how to utilise it.  Thanks in advance if anyone can help me out with this, but if its a silly question then please just tell me to gtfo.

I refuse to reply on the grounds that the thread title has multi-exclamation marks.

Think yourself lucky you are not banned for this.

[vegaslover]

Arbs already answered in the main.
I've never been a big bettor follower of asian handicaps, but for in-play betting I would say it is about getting enough experience of the market prices and then taking advantage when prices are out of sync with the norm. This obv takes some time to become accustomed to what the prices should actually be.