Fun hand HU MTT

[shipitgood]

It's HU in a £55 BH, blinds 1250/2.5k

We are OTB with 35 os (135k)

Villian (100k)

We limp the button, check. (5k)

Flop:

Check, we bet 2.5k, call (10k)

Turn:  . Check, we bet 4.5k, call (19k)

River:  , Check we bet 7.5k. He moves all in for 90+ k.

It's a really interesting spot. The player is pretty tight, he has kind of plodded his way along to HU, I've knocked most players out at the ft, although he has been playing good and aggressive HU.

[teddybloat]

preflop good

flop is a clear check. its not particularly close.

this flop will hit most check-back ranges. You don't have equity when called and although you benefit from protection, villain has a lot of semi-bluffs and value that he can raise - which is horrible for thin value.

turn bet bigger. Villain has a lot of hands he can continue with and many draws / gutshots.

river we can again be bigger. to the over-bet shove it probably doesnt matter what we do. IReasons to call off: we dont block  draws and our small sizing could be said to be inducing. Although its far from a fist-pump call, if we have reads villain has been aggressive HU and we dont block draws and our sizings have under-repped our hand strength then we can call off.

if our overall read is he has been tight and not out of line then we can fold in a situation where some of villains draws and mid / top pair improve to beat us. it is an overbet and a lot of villains arent capable of betting air like that. use population reads also if you can.

fwiw, i just quickly and roughly modelled this hand and he has a tonne of air on this run out. If he best half of his air then we have a close call. If he bets more than that then a clear call, less a clear fold.


So its a question of whether you think him capable of bombing a missed draw here. i lean to folding tbh, especially if we think we have an edge on him. we are still mega deep if we fold.

but check flop and bet bigger on turn and river.

[diondustbin]

would be checking the flop,

as played it's tough to give him much here, some a2o, hard to have 67 given how it played out. probably going to call

[shipitgood]

Tyvm Teddy for the response, an excellent and comprehensive post as always.

Also, Ty Dion for the reply and welcome to blonde.

If he has the nuts here or second nuts, would he make this massive over bet jam given how deep we are? Would he not go for a standerdised raise for value. Would he be doing this with 810, or more. Realistically 104? 

I wouldn't expect so.

It's polarised to nuts or air for me.