Bubbles

[shipitgood]

It's on the bubble of a  MTT, we are the chip leader, or 2nd chip leader and have the player in this hand covered.

We have ** in the SB

Blinds 400/800. We defend SB versus c/o min raise the BB folds.

Pots is 4k. Villian has 35k behind.

Flop:  

Check, Villian bets 800 we call. Pot 5.6k

Turn:

We lead for 2899. Villian makes it 6598. We set the player all in.

From a poker theory perspective leading Turns (or flops) is a lot more common these days than say 2/3 years ago.

It's really interesting when the pre flop aggressor then raises the lead, in this case OTT. In my experience people do not attack these leads often enough.

In the particular hand it is a bizarrely small raise.

This player is a reg. What kind of range would you assign villain here?  

The other interesting thing in this hand is calling the SB, which is really unusual instead of 3 betting. I'm not entirely sure, but expect that it's maybe not bad having a very small % SB calling range. Maybe in this kind of scenario, where you can go to the streets and potentially put pressure on during the bubble.

[Oxford_HRV]

Have you lead out with diamonds + overs?

[pleno1]

Turn is definitely not a lead and you definitely don't have an advantage.

On the flop you are going to raise with TT/99/44 always, T9 too, so a huge part of your nutted range is eliminated, even more so vs this sizing.

In terms of turned 2 pair combos or sets, you don't have more than him, infant he can raise t6,96s pre whilst you're very unlikely to defend with those. 87 he has just as many as you.

Never mind all of the overpairs that he has that you don't.

There is just no way your range should lead this turn.

[shipitgood]

Hey JJ

Thanks for the response.

BB is had circa 20 bigs and will play very honest, and will jam too tight in this spot and will also under defend his BB.

With his 20% pot bet otf, he is super wide here.

The raise OTT to my lead narrows his range significantly. Potentially far more value orientated than say a draw.

TT9944, 3 Combos of 910 suited. JJ+ which he might just flat a reasonable %. If he has Ace5dd as an example would he use this sizing? A really small raise, or other FD's, I don't know. It's a really interesting raise sizing.

Like you said JJ it's very hard me to have 78 here.

I suspect his range his heavily skewed to value here.

I really dislike my jam here, it's really bad. I prefer calling a whole lot here, and the jam does look a bit FOS.

As you say Pleno I have massive range disadvantage here when leading the turn. Just out of curiosity, why would you always raise the flop? In this direct example do you mean because of the small cont bet? It's really hard to have a bluff here on 9104 rb, JQsuited hard to see many other bluffs. Raising the flop with a set is interesting.

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Defending the SB versus a raise (not 3 betting).

It's not something very common late on in MTTs, I just think given the disadvantage of position it prob is far better just to 3 bet or fold. Especially on the bubble, as in this example, where villain could potentially be wide given who the BB is. This is about 1st time I've ever called in the SB in the latter stages of a MTT. I guess it could be an ok strategy with a small % of our range.