River size, weird spot, feels like a bet but nothing worse should call.

[rfgqqabc]

PokerStars Hand #159080286702: Tournament #1671685046, $50+$50+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (20/40) - 2016/09/25 19:38:26 CET [2016/09/25 13:38:26 ET]
Table '1671685046 96' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: tiarc (4910 in chips)
Seat 2: kingroler (4895 in chips)
Seat 3: tnxcomeagain (7829 in chips)
Seat 4: MaciekWa-Wa (4805 in chips)
Seat 5: yhsimplicio (5195 in chips)
Seat 6: RozTheRipper (4900 in chips)
Seat 7: Demonic16 (4845 in chips)
Seat 8: arthuzinho (3500 in chips)
Seat 9: shiftytaylor (4146 in chips)
tiarc: posts the ante 6
kingroler: posts the ante 6
tnxcomeagain: posts the ante 6
MaciekWa-Wa: posts the ante 6
yhsimplicio: posts the ante 6
RozTheRipper: posts the ante 6
Demonic16: posts the ante 6
arthuzinho: posts the ante 6
shiftytaylor: posts the ante 6
tnxcomeagain: posts small blind 20
MaciekWa-Wa: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Demonic16 [As Ah]
yhsimplicio: folds
RozTheRipper: raises 80 to 120
Demonic16: calls 120
arthuzinho: folds
shiftytaylor: folds
tiarc: folds
kingroler: folds
tnxcomeagain: calls 100
MaciekWa-Wa: calls 80
*** FLOP *** [ ]
tnxcomeagain: checks
MaciekWa-Wa: checks
RozTheRipper: bets 202
Demonic16: calls 202
tnxcomeagain: calls 202
MaciekWa-Wa: folds
*** TURN *** [ ] []
tnxcomeagain: checks
RozTheRipper: checks
Demonic16: bets 706
tnxcomeagain: calls 706
RozTheRipper: folds
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
tnxcomeagain: checks

My bluffs want to bet very big and my value range is somewhat narrow, I don't think we can bet much worse than this for value, particularly if we do not have the heart ourselves as we can potentially get bluffed. We also only have 3 combos of the nuts here, and if our opponent has a jack then we are down to one, meaning he could in theory pile pretty wide.

Opponent is a reg, winning 350k but if you take out his two biggeest scores he isn't up much. Bit of a battler too, we have no real reads. Peak time sunday from yesterday which might factor in. We get way more sloppy calls compared to one tabling deep on.

[rfgqqabc]

I don't really play bounties, but is it not difficult to bluff these spots with your bounty as an incentive? I appreciate you are not going to put your bounty on the line, but should a bluff be picked off it leaves u alot shorter - and fodder in future hands to people going after your bounty.

I feel I'd wanna check back but I could be so far wrong!!

Query with bounty - how come u peel pre? With him covering u could a 3b not induce a lighter call or a 4b in an attempt to get your bounty?

*as I say, huge disclaimer as I generally swerve bounties although everyones telling me to jump in on the action.

I think when you are so deep the bounty plays much less of a part. Simply, it is just harder to get all in. I didn't 3bet although this guy is a snuggish reg just because I don't think I have many "bluffs" (maybe only AJo i think) vs a competent player. If the opener was a weaker player I would just 3bet for value. The later he opens the more likely I am to 3bet, just because both my value and bluffing ranges will be wider, but here they are very narrow. I think a lot of what you said about the bounty aspect is absolutely correct too.

I feel like the mistake in the hand potentially came earlier, although I can't quite pinpoint where as raising the flop seems a bit meh and some of the hands that I would normally have as bluffs don't really want to fire when the pot is 3 way, bet/folding a hand like AcKh seems like a disaster so I perhaps would just check and realise the equity we have. I have a feeling most regs would just say to stop overthinking it and just bet something, but its interesting to think about imo, particularly with what was shown down.

I think his range is quite polarised but generally pretty weak, which is why it feels like a bet, lots of the better hands should probably raise before somewhere.

[WotRTheChances]

I'd 3bet pre in a bounty. Sure bounties are way less likely this deep, but I don't think a lot of people actually think about how unlikely they are to get it this deep.

As played i'm just betting 12-1400 otr, expecting to get some Jx JT QQ-KK calls. Only really losing to ThTx and theoretically should have a bunch of bluffs and a narrow value range, although in practice I don't think people bluff this spot much at all.

Agree wouldn't bet anything worse

[pleno1]

Sb will have a lot of flushes here, definitely not just beat by TR. he plays 87hh the same way almost always.

[youthnkzR]

Id check and be happy about it

[WotRTheChances]

Sorry thought we were against the OR on the river. Yeah he'll have way more flushes than the hands i thought OR would. Check seems good

[Pinchop73]

When I first looked at this I was like meh check.

But now I've looked at it a bit more I'd like to b/f like 70%, I think we get enough calls from his JxQh JxKh, AJs/AJo and all his JTs/JTo combos, he could turn up with the occasional KhKx and QhQx too. Not only does having Ah limit his bluffing range on the river, it vastly increases ours.