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Author Topic: *****"The Official 2017 Golf Betting and Discussion Thread"*****  (Read 117154 times)
Karabiner
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« on: March 22, 2017, 01:19:46 PM »

I thought it was about time we had another one of these since the fairway wedge chaps are now busy with nappy-changing etc.

I've thrown a few darts at the WCG matchplay event although I'm not a fan of the round-robin format for the first three rounds which in theory makes it far more favourable for the top players than straight knock-out over 18 holes would be - it also makes those first three days (well certainly the first two) a bit of a snoozefest.

None of which prevented me from throwing several small darts at players who I feel have the right sort of game for match-play especially being strong short-game exponents.

Patrick Reed@50, Matt Fitzpatrick@90, and Daniel Berger@90, all in betty's win market.

I also like a couple in the LPGA Kia Classic in California:

Lizette Salas @100/1 EW looks like good value to me for a hometown girl rediscovering some form.

In Gee Chun @16/1 EW is an auto-bet for me at that price.

GL
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 01:34:24 PM by Karabiner » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: March 22, 2017, 02:03:25 PM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34! Some things never change. Currently in Australia so woke up and sweated it earlier doors, wish I hadn't bothered!

I've had a couple of small darts on the Matchplay, really for interest more than anything else. Backed Pieters and Paul Casey. Tie on the group stages is Garcia vs Rahm.

In the first round - Kisner at odds (11/10) against to beat Koepka looks a five star bet given their respective form. Fitz to beat Na at Evens seems next best. Also just added Hatton to beat Howell III at 5/6.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 02:35:04 PM by rinswun » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2017, 03:29:40 PM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.
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« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2017, 03:39:11 PM »

Might be terrible from a profitability stand point but if I'm on e/w I never lay any off.
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« Reply #4 on: March 22, 2017, 11:08:36 PM »

In the first round - Kisner at odds (11/10) against to beat Koepka looks a five star bet given their respective form. Fitz to beat Na at Evens seems next best. Also just added Hatton to beat Howell III at 5/6.

Good lord, Kisner and Na suffered the heaviest loses of the first stage of the groups. Bloody match play, makes no sense. Bookies in clover as hotpots beaten all over the place.
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2017, 12:28:33 AM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.

You'll be betting against people with much faster info and you aren't going to lay off a fair few golf wins* without moving the price.  So not sure the commission is your only loss.  There is always going to be a lag watching on TV.  Shots migth be showed a good time after they were played and the leaderboard isn't going to change instantaneously.  I guess if you did this, you'd have to resort on just betting after seeing a betfair price move, even if you aren't sure why.

* 25 e/w on a 33/1 chance and you are having to lay off a grand.
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2017, 12:55:27 AM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.



You'll be betting against people with much faster info and you aren't going to lay off a fair few golf wins* without moving the price.  So not sure the commission is your only loss.  There is always going to be a lag watching on TV.  Shots migth be showed a good time after they were played and the leaderboard isn't going to change instantaneously.  I guess if you did this, you'd have to resort on just betting after seeing a betfair price move, even if you aren't sure why.

* 25 e/w on a 33/1 chance and you are having to lay off a grand.

There's plenty of opportunities between shots with a very liquid market to lay off.  It is obvious when the market has little uncertainty, you don't actually need to look at any pictures, just how liquid the market is.

Even if I'm not correct about leaders being overbet at certain tricky courses, I think its a perfectly reasonable insurance play to lock up some profit* when you have a long odds shot trading at 1/3 given the huge variance of golf betting.  If you can find a way to break even from the win side of bets, the place side will show a decent profit.

*this doesn't mean all your winnings and I didn't say that you should do that.


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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2017, 12:56:03 AM »

Hatton won to salvage the day. Lost 1.17 points. Pieters and Casey, both 40s outright ew, won.

My bets for tomorrow:

Berger (13/8) to beat Mickelson
Grace (5/6) to beat McGirt
Haas (11/10) to beat Willett
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2017, 11:01:17 AM »

Just put this up on TfT.

The LPGA heads to California this week for the Kia Classic. Defending Champion is World number one Lydia Ko. Bets first, reasons after.

£25 E/W Ariya Jutanugarn 10/1 S Jam

£15  E/W Sung Hyun Park 16/1 various

£20 Top 10 finish, Lizette Salas 10/1 Bet 36+5

Only four Women have shot four bogey free rounds in a tournament since 2011 and two of them happened last week. World number one Lydia Ko and Local Girl Lizette Salas had the blemish free rounds and Salas heads home for this weeks tournament in high spirits.

Her best finish here is T2 in 2014 and she has posted a couple of top tens before. She is in great form at the moment and if she can hole some putts this week then a top ten is very likely.

Ariya Jutanugarn is a machine at the moment. Her last four tournaments are T2, 2, T8, T3. It's only a matter of time before she wins again and Stanley Jammo have taken the view that it won't be this week. Most firms are 7/1 and they've inexplicably gone 10/1. She could quite easily be the Tiger Woods of Womens Golf, only 21 and been a pro for two years, she's ridiculously long, 49th in driving distance and only uses a three wood. She currently leads the way in Birdies and tops the money list for 2017. Ariya won five times last year and could easily surpass that this year. Maybe the last time we see double figures for her to win a tournament before a balls been hit.

Sung Hyun Park has one of the best swings in Golf. Awesome scorer, number one in scoring average and Rounds under par and is playing in her first season on the LPGA tour. Again, it's only a matter of time before she wins and I hope I'm on her when she does. She's played two tournaments this year and hasn't shot a round in the 70's. I've played five tournaments this year and I also haven't shot a round in the 70's. Unfortunately, mine are all in the 80's and 90's whilst hers are all in the 60's. Bitch!

There's a couple of other bets I considered, I'm not recommending them but I'll put them up.

Lydia Ko is in impressive form and is the defending Champ so likes the track. At 12/1 though I've passed her over for two that I feel are better value.

Lexi Thompson missed the cut last week after shooting -4 in the first two rounds. It was the highest cut line for an LPGA tournament. I didn't see any of her rounds but she took 60 odd putts which isn't good. Hopefully she has worked on that aspect of her game and is currently 25/1 with various firms. We were betting her a couple of weeks ago at 12/1 and I don't think missing the cut will have made her a bad player overnight.

Former World number one Yani Tseng has showed signs that she might be coming back into a bit of form. She dispensed with her coach and caddy for whatever reasons and has had a couple of bad years. Her old coach is back on her bag though and although she has missed three cuts this year she also has had a T14. You can get 400/1 on her not discovering the form that won her 5 majors and $10 million.

Maude Aimee Leblanc is another you would have to take a massive leap of faith to back. She missed the cut last week but shot a 64 in her second round. The 77 in her first round killed any chances of her doing anything on the weekend. She was T7 in the Australian Open in Feb though so that sort of form and no stupid 77's will make the 400/1 currently available look ridiculous come Sunday.

All the best if you have a flutter.

Hope Peter is okay and Horsey as well. Guess Tikay will outlive us all but glad you're back posting.

Later.
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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2017, 11:10:56 AM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.

I think you are one of the smartest people on Blondepoker Doubleup.

But this is the worst advice ever IMO.

By all means hedge for psychological reasons if you must. But don't kid yourself it can be value. If your blind lay has been matched, you are taking the worst of it.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2017, 11:21:16 AM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.

I think you are one of the smartest people on Blondepoker Doubleup.

But this is the worst advice ever IMO.

By all means hedge for psychological reasons if you must. But don't kid yourself it can be value. If your blind lay has been matched, you are taking the worst of it.

I think it's decent advice for anyone who's bet solely in betty's win market if you look at the number of odds-on players leading going into the final round who fail to win.

Like Rinswun I hardly ever hedge if I'm on EW.
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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2017, 11:46:30 AM »

Seems appropriate time to start the thread as I had Kisner backed at 66s last week and get beat when trading as low as 1.34!

I think that as soon as a decent odds golf bet hits ~1.3 you should lay a chunk off.  You have already got decent value for your bet and the minimal commission loss is well worth paying for bankroll insurance. 

Also I rather suspect that simply laying anyone who hits 1/3 on courses known for tough/tricky finishes like Bay Hill might be value.

I think you are one of the smartest people on Blondepoker Doubleup.

But this is the worst advice ever IMO.

By all means hedge for psychological reasons if you must. But don't kid yourself it can be value. If your blind lay has been matched, you are taking the worst of it.

To clarify, I wasn't suggesting that you put up a lay and leave it there, I was suggesting that you click on the lay side in a liquid market. 

I really wish people wouldn't perpetuate the myth that Betfair prices are always correct.  The only long term success I have had there is laying.
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rinswun
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« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2017, 12:57:02 PM »

Just put this up on TfT.

The LPGA heads to California this week for the Kia Classic. Defending Champion is World number one Lydia Ko. Bets first, reasons after.

£25 E/W Ariya Jutanugarn 10/1 S Jam

£15  E/W Sung Hyun Park 16/1 various

£20 Top 10 finish, Lizette Salas 10/1 Bet 36+5

Only four Women have shot four bogey free rounds in a tournament since 2011 and two of them happened last week. World number one Lydia Ko and Local Girl Lizette Salas had the blemish free rounds and Salas heads home for this weeks tournament in high spirits.

Her best finish here is T2 in 2014 and she has posted a couple of top tens before. She is in great form at the moment and if she can hole some putts this week then a top ten is very likely.

Ariya Jutanugarn is a machine at the moment. Her last four tournaments are T2, 2, T8, T3. It's only a matter of time before she wins again and Stanley Jammo have taken the view that it won't be this week. Most firms are 7/1 and they've inexplicably gone 10/1. She could quite easily be the Tiger Woods of Womens Golf, only 21 and been a pro for two years, she's ridiculously long, 49th in driving distance and only uses a three wood. She currently leads the way in Birdies and tops the money list for 2017. Ariya won five times last year and could easily surpass that this year. Maybe the last time we see double figures for her to win a tournament before a balls been hit.

Sung Hyun Park has one of the best swings in Golf. Awesome scorer, number one in scoring average and Rounds under par and is playing in her first season on the LPGA tour. Again, it's only a matter of time before she wins and I hope I'm on her when she does. She's played two tournaments this year and hasn't shot a round in the 70's. I've played five tournaments this year and I also haven't shot a round in the 70's. Unfortunately, mine are all in the 80's and 90's whilst hers are all in the 60's. Bitch!

There's a couple of other bets I considered, I'm not recommending them but I'll put them up.

Lydia Ko is in impressive form and is the defending Champ so likes the track. At 12/1 though I've passed her over for two that I feel are better value.

Lexi Thompson missed the cut last week after shooting -4 in the first two rounds. It was the highest cut line for an LPGA tournament. I didn't see any of her rounds but she took 60 odd putts which isn't good. Hopefully she has worked on that aspect of her game and is currently 25/1 with various firms. We were betting her a couple of weeks ago at 12/1 and I don't think missing the cut will have made her a bad player overnight.

Former World number one Yani Tseng has showed signs that she might be coming back into a bit of form. She dispensed with her coach and caddy for whatever reasons and has had a couple of bad years. Her old coach is back on her bag though and although she has missed three cuts this year she also has had a T14. You can get 400/1 on her not discovering the form that won her 5 majors and $10 million.

Maude Aimee Leblanc is another you would have to take a massive leap of faith to back. She missed the cut last week but shot a 64 in her second round. The 77 in her first round killed any chances of her doing anything on the weekend. She was T7 in the Australian Open in Feb though so that sort of form and no stupid 77's will make the 400/1 currently available look ridiculous come Sunday.

All the best if you have a flutter.

Hope Peter is okay and Horsey as well. Guess Tikay will outlive us all but glad you're back posting.

Later.

Cheers Rubbish, enjoyed the write up. For those of us who can't use Stan, what price would you consider Ariya value at? look about right so leave?
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« Reply #13 on: March 23, 2017, 01:11:46 PM »

Hi Bud, 8's is about right. She's 7's in places. 10's is a little too high which is why I'm on at that price. I wouldn't bet on anything lower to be honest.
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« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2017, 01:14:29 PM »

Fair do's, best of luck! I've backed your other two. The only other bet I've ever placed on the LPGA was a small bet on Brooke Henderson for the money list this season, e/w at 50s.
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