Live 1/2 vs reg

[muckthenuts]

Villian is 100% a Hippo grinder, but apart from that i don't know much about him.

Folds to me in HJ i open   to £10.
Villain calls in CO, everyone else folds.

Flop  

I bet 15, he calls after a brief tank.

Turn  

I check/call 35.

River  

I check, he bets 85.

a) Call/fold?
b) what if we have red AA?
c) what hands should be in my c/c turn and river range? Or would anyone take a different line anywhere?

[shipitgood]

All looks good. Like x turn.

[SuuPRlim]

i spose if youre read-less vs someone you are confident is a competent player then just revert to some theoretically sound play.

Whats the crack in this games? Is he betting 97/75 OTR, does he have TT with this line? If the answer to that is yes then I think you have a pretty trivial call, when you can beat value bets and it's quite obvious he can

If he never bets a 7, but can have TT then JJ becomes much worse hand to call than QQ - AA as you can now beat JJ too (probably) as JJ and likely play the same PF.

Most probably though he would 3b TT, and wouldn't bet 97 so I'd say you're only beating bluffs, now pick if you wanna call the highest pairs only (reasonable) or just go for times you dont have a spad, don't really see what you're calling the river with that isn't an overpair TBH,  or  probably a good candidate to fold all things considered. Tens obviously the nut-low OP calling hand.

[SuuPRlim]

that line is sposed to read "its quite obvious he can be bluffing"

[Turkey Cheesecake]

Stack sizes?

[Turkey Cheesecake]

Assuming your 200bb deep,

Checking the flop is an option, The board is more favorable to him, although removing his pre flop nuts hands i assume we still have a equity advantage on the flop. Our hand doesnt improve a lot, its a 2 street hand max, 90% of the time.

Against what i assume is a the standard station reg then bet flop he'll have allsort of pairs + backdoor stuff he'll call.  Call turn, fold river. JJ with no fd blockers would be one of the better hands to call and if he's playing perfect id suspect its a call. But the standard 200nl live reg is under bluffing here so just fold.

From the IP point of view its a really interesting spot to raise here, especially the deeper you are as he puts a large % of your range in a shit position if he raises flop then goes to town on a lot of run outs, but be aware of opponent as I.P will be making most of his money from someone paying him off 3streets with an overpair.....

[muckthenuts]

We were about 700 effective at this point. In general these games tend to play pretty tight with not much battling going on. I'm new to these particular games but with the location i guess regs seem pretty content just to chop up the money coming from the passing traffic. I think he's flatting QQ and AK a lot and maybe even better sometimes to encourage weaker players to come into the pot. Don't think he has many 97 or 75 just from how the game has been playing so far, which ofc makes our hand look a lot worse now. I thought the bulk of his range on the river would consist of full houses, missed spades and maybe the occasional float. However, i totally agree with TC that the standard reg is probably underbluffing here and therefore likely checks back a missed draw on the river or even ott. It's looking like a pretty easy fold now!

[muckthenuts]

Had another interesting spot come up during a live £1-2 game.

Player is clearly recreational. Earlier i saw him bump up 1 limper to £7 in EP and he showed down K2hh after flopping a flush. Generally playing a lot of hands preflop.

About £500 effective.

So someone limps, he makes it £7 again in EP. There's a flat and i make it £35 with in the SB. He puts the money in quickly, clearly had no intention of doing anything but calling a 3bet once he's made it £7.

Flop 

I bet £45 pretty quickly. He SNAP makes it £150, literally in no time at all once i've bet.

How should we continue?

[Oxford_HRV]

I think id go with call flop and either x/c/cr/calloff/shove all turns except off suit Qx Tx and hearts and decide/fold with villains sizing on the naughty turn cards.
imo villain got a range like J9hh+ QThh AQ AJ AT 55

[SuuPRlim]

just go with it.

[muckthenuts]

Thoughts on having the being good or bad for us?

[arbboy]

Has to be good. 5% equity back door flush draw to the nuts without considering anything else.

[shipitgood]

Bad,

You block a lot of his bluffs.

Do you have any good reads to make you want to continue in this hand? Has he been raising flops a lot?

Most times @ 1/2 live this will be value,  I don't he's doing it with AQ for example with this sizing. Having is pretty crucial.

His value range is JJ, 55, AJ, A5. Toiling to find a lot of bluffs, could see 10qhh been played this way but not a lot of other hands.

[rfgqqabc]

Bad,

You block a lot of his bluffs.

Do you have any good reads to make you want to continue in this hand? Has he been raising flops a lot?

Most times @ 1/2 live this will be value,  I don't he's doing it with AQ for example with this sizing. Having is pretty crucial.

His value range is JJ, 55, AJ, A5. Toiling to find a lot of bluffs, could see 10qhh been played this way but not a lot of other hands.

vs 55/aj/a5 at/aq and the combo draws its actually a positive, or it was when i did some napkin math on PPT. I think this is just due to the lack of theoretical bluffs in the included range, meaning the blocker effect is significantly reduced as our opponent doesn't have hands like KhQs. I didn't post anything because it was napkin math though, so I may be wrong.

[SuuPRlim]

so we doubt he's gonna play the blank NFD like this, in which case having the just means that he doesn't have KT, KQ, KJ hearts, 0% this is a stone bluff I'd say and I think he'd very like want to think about it a bit longer with A5 so I guess you're against AJ, 55, JJ or Jx hearts , QThh. The rare time he shows up without one of these hands he's going to have some random flush draw.

seems very marginal but you throw the random factor in, that you never know what mental thing someone might do at any point just don't think you should be folding unless you know the guys solid.