Anyone got thoughts on the outright market at this stage?
So the market currently is:
6/4 Debbie
9/4 Alexandra
7/1 Gemma
8/1 Joe
20/1 Mollie
22/1 Jonnie
22/1 Davood
100/1 Susan
150/1 Ruth
https://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winnerDebbieHer ringerness is nowhere near as bad as her overmarking. On her toes for significant portions of her tango and struggling with her head movement in the staccato parts (reliable guide for viewers: if it looks weird, something has probably gone wrong). The judges have fawned over her performances in a way I've never seen before at this stage of the competition. It was a reasonable tango but 34 would have been a much fairer reflection of it than 40. Seems little doubt she is wanted in the final.
http://www.express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-radio/875896/Strictly-Come-Dancing-2017-James-Jordan-blasts-Craig-Revel-Horwood-bow-Debbie-McGeeAlexandra A similar story. On her heels for chunks of her cha cha, which is normally pounced upon by the judges. She had bent legs but was told instead they were straight. Tens were absurd. It was honestly like someone putting Son's finish yesterday in for goal of the month: it was a nice finish but no more.
Conspiracy theorists will also enjoy that Alexandra has been on the West End and then on tour with Sister Act. Who is the director? One C. Revel-Horwood, if you please. She’s been good enough to stay in the competition, so I don’t really have concerns about that side of it, but the degree of praise of her – and the relentless blind eyes to her faults – is becoming a hot topic at Tal Towers. It might have been just me, but I thought the faces behind Alexandra were a little sceptical of the marking.
GemmaI’m a big fan of Aljaz – he’s good in both disciplines and is also a very good coach. Consistently gets the best out of his partners and we’re seeing much more of his personality this year. Marriage hasn’t slowed him down. Gemma is a tomboy, so she has been having difficulty being girly; certainly seems insecure. Abbey Clancy had that trouble early on, but grew into the role and ended up winning. Who was her partner again? I have concerns over Gemma’s popularity (she’s had her haters over the years), but her consistent mid-ranking hasn’t seemed to been a problem for her, so I’m taking from this that she gets votes – at least a reasonable number, anyway.
JoeJoe is also a little unpolished in his work, but he’s grown enormously in confidence. Again, he is blessed with a brilliant partner in Katya. She and Neil (the ginger one) are a superb addition to the show. Katya’s choreography has enabled Joe to develop, with increasingly more challenging routines and more polished performances. His price is a little short for now, as tends to be the case after a Charleston. But I would have given that a higher mark than the 36 they got. He’s not being mentioned much by the judges in any serious way. This could be a sign he’s not on the tour (we all know that’s a factor as to who makes the final). I like him. He will continue to get better. The question is whether he can get better quickly enough.
MollieThe only way she can win is if she’s popular. She is not close to being the best dancer and her partner is the worst professional dancer by a distance. Making the dance off twice in a row (when there is usually a post-dance-off bounce) is a sign the Sequinned Grim Reaper is sharpening his glittery scythe. We’ve also seen the public going mad about the decision of Shirley Ballas to keep her in (one paper spotted AJ was at her dance school), though I actually had the result of that as fair. She took too small steps, particularly on quicks, and it hurt her balance, because she was frequently in the wrong position. That’s why it looked awkward. She has maybe two weeks left.
JonnieLet’s cut to the chase: it’s a decent year and he has no chance of winning on dancing alone. He doesn’t have a hip action and certain dances will continue to hurt him. I have no idea how hard it is for him to achieve what he needs to do in order to get up to standard, but the reality is he’s one of the worst left, embarrassingly overmarked and it is nearing his natural exit time. He’s an inspirational figure and clearly popular with both his peers and the audience. But I don’t see him winning.
DavoodThe same price as Jonnie is Davood. I thought the American Smooth on Saturday was excellent. The clip before was very interesting: he’s been on a strict regime of footwork and it paid off bigtime. The quality of his heels is as good as I’ve seen in the competition: it’s easy to forget to do them, firstly, or, if you do remember, it’s easy to overstate them and make it look forced. If you get them right, you generate rise and fall (dip into the heel and push off on the second step to get vertical lift through the body onto the toe). He got that well. His quicks were a little short at times, where the strides should all be the same length (that’s hard to do; even harder with grace), but he was undoubtedly undermarked. His price at 22/1 is – if this were a fair fight – bonkers. Even allowing for preference and bias, it’s still probably wrong. I wonder whether there’s an Eastenders problem, given how hard it was for Kellie Bright to progress in the competition (that jitterbug showdance remains my favourite ever and is right up there in the top 3 strictly dances of all time). He's a good'n.
SusanI know some have backed her as a live outsider. There were worse bets than that out there at the time. I don’t see her improving much and this is a strong series. Kevin has worked her hard and I really enjoyed this weekend’s choreography from a technical standpoint (without going mad on the technical side, there are different levels of standard for amateurs, a little like martial arts. Kevin designed a routine that was basic and gave Susan a chance of doing a simple routine well, which was the right thing to do, even giving four or five pauses for her to get her breath back). I can’t see her winning still, though I have no doubt she’s popular with the viewers.
RuthThe comedy stylings of Anton du Beke have a strictly shelf life. I did chuckle at this one, but it can’t be long, can it?
AstonI’d best say something on the result last night. There’s often a shock these days around this time. Pixie Lott went after a creaky cha-cha with poor legs (the judges do see this stuff...I keep telling myself). Janette made a big error with this routine and Aston’s footwork was poor. He barely smiled during the entire thing and I noted that Darcey picked up on that: you should smile during ballroom dances (tango aside); it conveys you’re comfortable and at ease, even though the dance is anything but. It was a poor and boring routine, which was executed badly. He was in trouble from the moment he started in hold. He knew that, too; he wasn’t angry at the comments or even surprised; just disappointed. I suspect he knew that was as good a job as he could have done with that. Was he dealt a bum hand with the music? Possibly.
OverallI am a convert to the idea that it’s a TV show and the BBC are keen to ensure certain things happen for as long as possible, even if this conflicts with what is “right” in the competition. I note there are now 3 men and 6 women left. Joe and Davood should get time if they don’t have a rotten dance, while the women (presumably Mollie and Ruth) head off. Blackpool is 18 November, so that should time nicely for Ruth/Anton or Susan/Kevin to head off, head held high.
The comments on the articles last night about the shock result indicate Alexandra and Debbie are developing noisy opponents in the chat boxes. I expect this to continue and the current prices for both are too short. The only way they wouldn’t be is if they’re guaranteed a passage to the final.
Hope this answers your question, Keith.
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