Deliberately tipping losing bets...

[teddybloat]

Story in today's guardian:

Revealed: tipsters deliberately recommend losing bets to punters

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/sep/01/revealed-tipsters-deliberately-recommend-losing-bets-to-punters?

Thought it might interest people here

[tikay]

The Guardian have been on a bit of a crusade lately, with a series of articles lobbying against the Gaming Industry generally. The thrust of their argument is probably valid up to a point, but they are ruining their arguments by over-egging it. It's bad journalism, as it has zero balance. IMO, that is.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/gambling

[arbboy]

https://twitter.com/racingblogger

Classic example of this.

[BigAdz]

Having a few email accounts, and a couple of postal addresses, means some of these thieving idiots send one free tip in a race to one email/address, and then another tip to another email. I guess they have the entire race covered thus ensuring some mug gets the winner.

I guess its a bit of a pyramid game, but some of the names that have tried it on me in the past are fairly long established "names"

[arbboy]

Having a few email accounts, and a couple of postal addresses, means some of these thieving idiots send one free tip in a race to one email/address, and then another tip to another email. I guess they have the entire race covered thus ensuring some mug gets the winner.

I guess its a bit of a pyramid game, but some of the names that have tried it on me in the past are fairly long established "names"

Exactly pick 625 random punters.  Select 4 x 5 runner races.  Do all the combos of selections.  One punter out of the 625 gets 4 winners out of 4 and thinks you are a genius.

[Doobs]

The Guardian have been on a bit of a crusade lately, with a series of articles lobbying against the Gaming Industry generally. The thrust of their argument is probably valid up to a point, but they are ruining their arguments by over-egging it. It's bad journalism, as it has zero balance. IMO, that is.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/gambling

Why should they balance?  Both the FBOTs and these bet365 tipping wankers are a disgrace and should be stopped. 

FOBTs should never have ever been allowed in the first place, as there was ample evidence from Australia of the mysery they cause.

At the least every bet365 affiliate should display exactly the warnings of any other bookie as they are effectively agents of the bookie.  They should also have to display how they make their money. 

Did you see that Ladbrokes Coral have the largest number of MP trips over £500 on the MPs register?  Sure you need to take them to Cheltenham to get your point over.  Why not invite Philip Davies on a tour of the betting shops of Bradford? 

[arbboy]

The funniest thing about the FOBT's is that the firms that have made the most from them have suffered the most in the bigger picture as they became so complacent about the easy money and took their eyes off the ball on their core business 10-15 years ago and allowed the internet only upstarts (bet365/skybet/betfair/power) to fly past them product wise and they have never, and will never, catch them up.  Coral and Lolbrokes had to merge in order to stay competitive in the 3rd spot in market cap in the rankings order behind bet365/ppbf/hills.  That would have been unthinkable 10 years ago.  The biggest damage fobt's have ever made is to the valuations of the company's who run them imo.  Tikay is a lolbrokes shareholder and will testify.

[teddybloat]

arb, do you write anywhere?

your posts pack a punch mate.

[arbboy]

arb, do you write anywhere?

your posts pack a punch mate.

No mate.  Only writing i do apart from on here is the cheques to people i lose to every month.  I just say it as i see it having worked both sides of the fence for 16 years in the game.

[Skippy]

Is it possible to tweet deliberately losing bets? E.g. football- in a win/lose/draw market the prices are so close to being "right" that no matter what option you pick you lose the 5% in expectation or whatever. I'd have thought horse races are pretty much the same. If you have the skill to pick options that are more losing than the others, why not pick winners (for yourself or others) instead, as it's just as hard.

It's like you can't deliberately lose at roulette, as all the numbers are equally as bad.

[AndrewT]

Is it possible to tweet deliberately losing bets? E.g. football- in a win/lose/draw market the prices are so close to being "right" that no matter what option you pick you lose the 5% in expectation or whatever. I'd have thought horse races are pretty much the same. If you have the skill to pick options that are more losing than the others, why not pick winners (for yourself or others) instead, as it's just as hard.

It's like you can't deliberately lose at roulette, as all the numbers are equally as bad.

Rather than 'deliberately losing bets' it should really be 'bets the bookies want you to make' - accas and unshrewd punts.

It is possible to clean a bookie out at roulette, but they're still going to be happy to take all the action you want.

[arbboy]

Pretty easy to recommend long term -ev bets.  I could easily put up 50 bets a day which are massively long term losing bets.   I can't control whether each one wins or loses but overall after a year i could gtd i would be losing (and making money from the aff deals from the bookies).  Delete some of the losers from twitter and big up the winners to delude the followers into thinking they are onto a good thing.  

There is a reason why none of these types of people provide long term P+L figures.  

The racing blogger always tweets betting slips of getting top price available on a popular short priced horse in a big race (which usually shorterns from the mythical early price which proper winners can't access consistently) for decent three figure amounts.  If he wasn't in bed with the bookies via the back door and he only bet the stuff he posts his account would be closed to pennies everywhere.  The reality is the firms let him have his lot on at top price as all the followers will smash in on shorter prices and do their cash.  cynical but more than likely true.  Betdaq basically fund him to travel around the country to race meetings.  He isn't doing this for nothing.  He claims to be a personal trainer by trade.  Why is he still a personal trainer if he, as he claims constantly, has the game by the bollocks?

[arbboy]

https://twitter.com/racingblogger/status/903916089276497920

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/sandown/14:25/winner

Text book example today by the blogger.  Puts up a mythical price of 5/2 (betfred boost) for an hour which is not available to most and not for decent money on a short priced fav in a big ITV race.

[Cavey007]

Is it possible to tweet deliberately losing bets? E.g. football- in a win/lose/draw market the prices are so close to being "right" that no matter what option you pick you lose the 5% in expectation or whatever. I'd have thought horse races are pretty much the same. If you have the skill to pick options that are more losing than the others, why not pick winners (for yourself or others) instead, as it's just as hard.

It's like you can't deliberately lose at roulette, as all the numbers are equally as bad.

Rather than 'deliberately losing bets' it should really be 'bets the bookies want you to make' - accas and unshrewd punts.

It is possible to clean a bookie out at roulette, but they're still going to be happy to take all the action you want.

Check out footy super tips for evidence of deliberately losing tips. They post too many each day, Slovenia league 3 and lower league German games were the subject of an overs 5 fold the other day that lost on the first leg. They have 400k followers. So they would have made a fortune from that. Then there's things like 10-1000 challenges which seem to be favourites of mug punters. If somehow they get up to 300 odd  the mantra is obviously, well I only started with a tenner. Meanwhile the "tipster" will make 100 quid per loser at the stake. All from tipping 1/2 shots or less. I don't think they are there to deliberately lose in that example, but it definitely helps the affiliate when people do lose. It's not often you get that many correct bets in a row.

Then the likes of the winners enclosure and the rest of team FA. I believe they made around 400k last year from being an affiliate.

Another good one is suggesting what to bet on screenshot a picture of it ready to go, but don't actually place the bet and claim that we win together we lose together. Had someone the other day claiming noone would record losses in a profit loss spreadsheet as that would be stupid. Well if you want to have a follow base of people who actually trust you then you should track everything.

It makes it tough for proper "tipsters" to gain a reputation when you have arse holes like them around. A lot of good info on casualgambler.net about tipsters and affiliate links etc. I was unaware that it stays in your cookies so even if you close the link window and sign up separately it may go down as you signing up through that affiliate.

[arbboy]

https://twitter.com/racingblogger/status/903916089276497920

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/sandown/14:25/winner

Text book example today by the blogger.  Puts up a mythical price of 5/2 (betfred boost) for an hour which is not available to most and not for decent money on a short priced fav in a big ITV race.

Another mythical 5/2 winner for RB.  sp 11/8.  If he does keep score it will be recorded at a price hardly anyone in the world could get and for peanuts even if they could.

Some random P+L with no dates has been unsurprisingly been added after a winner that goes off half the price recommended.

https://twitter.com/racingblogger/status/903975203662909440