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Author Topic: A "joke" league?  (Read 3149 times)
TightEnd
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« on: December 28, 2017, 09:47:22 AM »

I was interested in the following last night

Premier League branded a 'joke league' by Jamie Carragher because of negative tactics against top six http://dailym.ai/2DnxqAK

Newcastle did very little,sub 20% possession and tried to hold out for as long as possible playing an extreme counter attacking style

The alternative is to have a go and,it is assumed,lose heavily

With the top six spending up to £300m per summer window,and the gap the rest of the division widen ingagain (now there is a new tv deal talent acquisition arms race), does Carragher have a point?
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rinswun
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« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2017, 10:02:26 AM »

Whilst it's very much a two tiered league this year (3? City; other Big 5; rest), we're only two season removed from your boys winning it. This might be a contradiction in terms but it can't be that much of a joke when a 5000/1 shot pings in.
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« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2017, 10:45:36 AM »

There was a time when Liverpool won nearly every year, and another when it was Manchester United.   Seems odd that he thinks it is worse now.  Sure City are walking away with it, but they were a long way off last year, and next year it could easily be any of the other big 6.  It feels as competitive now as any time in the recent past.

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« Reply #3 on: December 28, 2017, 10:49:51 AM »

The gap between the big 6 and the rest has never been bigger (in before you mention Leicester's freak season) statistically.  The spreads have never had the top 6 all so far clear of the rest of the pack points wise.  However the competition between the top 6 (barring this presumably freak season of man city hosing up) has never been closer in a generation.
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #4 on: December 28, 2017, 10:53:44 AM »

I think it’s fine.  City are just too good this year.  Watford have gone at all the big 6 so far (most games at home admittedly).  Results have been 0-6, 1-1, 2-4, 2-1, 3-3 and 2-4.  Newcastle May have been absurdly negative but not everyone is, and 5 points out of 18 doesn’t seem an unbridgeable gap.  Certainly we were unlucky to lose the Chelsea game and should have had a penalty to win the game against Spurs.  Feels okay to me.
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arbboy
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« Reply #5 on: December 28, 2017, 11:09:22 AM »

What price would people be Man City to win the league next season now?  Are they odds on?  Big odds on?  Odds against?
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DungBeetle
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« Reply #6 on: December 28, 2017, 11:30:32 AM »

What price would people be Man City to win the league next season now?  Are they odds on?  Big odds on?  Odds against?

5/4?
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TightEnd
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« Reply #7 on: December 28, 2017, 11:39:50 AM »

went off 11/8 this year? Evens at best next even at this stage?
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« Reply #8 on: December 28, 2017, 11:52:18 AM »

went off 11/8 this year? Evens at best next even at this stage?

A few days before the season started City were 2.67 on the exchange and in the range 2.75-2.90 everywhere else. So let's say 7/4.  Chelsea and United were about 3/1.

Spreads if buying were:
City 81
Chelsea 79.5
United 78.5
Liverpool 75.5
Spurs 75
Arsenal 74

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arbboy
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« Reply #9 on: December 28, 2017, 12:15:03 PM »

I think they would be decent odds on.  I think if you went up 11/10 or 5/4 now as a bookmaker you would be filled in.
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« Reply #10 on: December 28, 2017, 11:50:03 PM »

I know this topic is looking at the PL in more general terms, but if we focus on last night....

The consensus seems to be that Newcastle, despite being very negative, had the right set up as come the 80th minute they were still in with a shout. Sort of justifying an extreme defensive display because that meant they could throw the kitchen sink in the last 10 minutes, and if that didn't materialise then a 0-1 defeat was hardly a disaster or embarrassing.

But Newcastle could've had no qualms whatsoever if they went into the break 4 goals down. It was only our poor finishing (and an outstanding save) that kept the score down. It certainly wasn't a defensive masterclass, far from it. They gave us loads of space in their final 3rd and we really should've had a commanding half time lead. So Newcastle had the worst of both worlds; zero attacking threat and a backline that was breached numerous times.

If I was an observer, then I'd have no idea what the best line would be to stop City. When you've seen teams have a go and get thrashed, and likewise sit deep and defend and also get a hiding, it must be a nightmare for opposition managers. From a City perspective I'd say our toughest games (from memory) were Huddersfield away and Southampton at home. Both games required late winners, and both games they were difficult to break down. But for that you need the right set of players playing to a very specific gameplan, something which I don't think Newcastle had last night.

It is a bit of a freak season though, I'm sure next year and beyond we won't see anything on this scale again. Oh, and if bookies we're offering evens for next year you'd have to lump your house on it Wink
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« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2017, 09:36:05 AM »

I think they would be decent odds on.  I think if you went up 11/10 or 5/4 now as a bookmaker you would be filled in.

I was thinking 11/10 or 6/5, but you could offer 4/5 or 8/11 and take plenty of money right now, so why would you offer bigger?  It must be the but best time to be offering a skinny price, so surprised nobody seems to be offering one.   
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