Stu Rutter WSOP package, May 28th 2024, @1.04

The Main Event A9 vs likely trip sixes hand

No better way to clear my head, than to analyse the spot from yesterday.

It's really close. But, I think if I had my time again, I would go for it. I'll explain why.

First of all, to clarify, there is absolutely no way I would go for this bluff against an unknown. And, indeed, against anything other than one of two players at the table. And, indeed, only with the basis of 9 hours of information. And, indeed, given my plans of larceny had been largely halted because of lack of opportunity, only with the reasonably good image I had cultivated.

Even then, its close. Let's do blockers/combos first:

Blockers/combos

AA- it would be a misnomer to sat that I block AA- or at least to double count it, with the more simple fact, that he can't have AA anyway.

99- However, he can have 99. There have been tight flats from the blinds. Whilst that is negative, I do at least reduce 3 combos to 1

A6- Nice blocker on it, but important to remember it is only a 33% blocker. Still 4 combos

96- Same as A6

Other 6 s- there was a very relevant showdown earlier. He showed down 63o against an UTG1 raise. This helps the potential bluff in a big way. Because what we are targeting is all the 6 s that aren't A6/Q6/96, it's actually very helpful that he has all the weaker offsuit sixes. A6/Q6/96 now becomes a smaller part of his 6 range

Q6 and 66- important to remember these 7 (6+1) combos exist

QQ- Its of some small help that I can have QQ, and he can't.

Overall- my blockers aren't actually that useful. What is more useful is the previous showdown telling us that he can have all the weak sixes.

Other technical factor

Its important to remember that we're considering the difference between fold and raise, not between call and raise. The raise, compared to a fold, gains even more, as of course he may be bluffing, and so we 'mop up' all the times he is when we raise. If we were deciding between call and raise, that isn't of significance, as of course we catch the bluffs by calling anyway.

The Main Event factor

I agree that the Main Event has a good number of players, who it would be a horrendous idea to try to get to fold trips. However, 8 hours of watching had proved that he wasn't one of them.

The survival factor

It's definitely the case that there is more value than usual to me staying in this event. However, I do think that is overrated. Its too much of a stretch to say 'The Main Event is all about survival.' Ultimately, you have to make chips. The days get tougher as they go on; not all tables bear gifts; and yesterday 'proved' that even a table bearing gifts does not mean that everyone recieves one. So, whilst I don't want to take tiny edge bluffs, then I may well want to take medium edge ones.

Also, there is of course the counter factor to the importance of survival. HE will want to stay in the Main Event. Its a shame I don't have him covered. Then, I'm sure that the trigger should be pulled, to threaten his tournament life. And, if my 'survival is overrated' is true, (which is debatable), then he may well overrate it himself, and be overly reluctant to call with three sixes.

I think I nearly trust him to know that trip sixes is only a bluff catcher. As in, I trust him to know I am not raising big on the river with 86. I can't be absolutely sure, but I think he'll read polarity into someone who checked the flop, called a check raise on the turn turn, and still moved in over a big bet, which clearing repping at least trips on the river. I think he'll read my story that I am repping (A6, Q6, AA,99,QQ). He may well sigh call it off with 96 (and maybe the kicker-relevant K6), but I think he'll be at least very conscious with J6, or less.

I think there's an argument to say that what the bluff would be taking advantage of is the GAP between what survival is actually worth (or at least my lower belief thereof), and the higher level which he may perceive it to be worth. All in all, it just really feels like be may well fold three sixes.

I can't be sure...

- You can never be sure with anyone that he will treat three sixes as a pure bluff catcher. Maybe he will have a rush of blood to the head, and illogicallydecide that I may be raising with something like J6, and that he's safe for a split pot.

- I've said that I read the beer in his hand as being, counter intuitively, positive for the bluff, as it indicates a man happy to make the end of the day, rather than a man getting reckless. That may of course be wrong.

However, I guess we don't need certainty to attempt a bluff. We just need it to get through the correct percentage of the time. I'm definitely not completely sure, but I feel like it does get through that amount of the time.

Oh well. It's definitely close. All good.