Premier League-Top 4

[EssexPhil]

The bookies, as per usual, seem to think the Top 4 is nailed on.

No value in their favourites. Oddschecker have Liverpool at 2/17, Arsenal at 1/5, Man City 1/4, Chelsea 4/6. 3/1 Bar.

They do this sort of thing every year. But the actual Top 4 always involves surprises. Will Liverpool's new side gel? Will Arteta be gone by October? Are City on the slide? And everyone knows Chelsea could be 1st or 10th.

The 2 value bets-for me at least-are Aston Villa and Spurs-both at 11/2 to finish Top 4.

So-here goes:-

1. Chelsea (10/1 to be 1st a lot more attractive than 4/6 Top 4)
2. Liverpool
3. Arsenal
4. Aston Villa

[tikay]

We've moved this across Phil, might get better traction here.

[tikay]

Spurs 11/2 top four?

11/2?.....

 

[bagel]

bias aside , i reckon liverpool will finish top fairly easily . arsenal 2nd chelsea 3rd city 4th . boring selections i know , but i just dont see villa or spurs get there

would happily take a friendly wager that utd finish outside top 6

hopefully this thread will carry on into general footy chat over the season

whoever your team is , post your thoughts about anything and everything that makes you happy or drives you mad

international break 1st week of september ffs

[Doobs]

More frustration in trying to get bets on.

I have an old Spreadex account.  I used to bet on spreads, but that was 20 odd years ago.  I have had 9 fixed odds bets lifetime with them.  The last one was in 2024, the one before that in 2022.  My last bet lost, so not even sure if it was based on that. I have bet £400 odd quid total and am down more than £100. 

I am a Bradford City fan, so thought I'd put a fun bet on them this season.  I am a realist, and think they should stay up, but challenging is a stretch.  They were lucky to win at home to Wycombe on the first day, and most of their recruitment was decent league 2 players.  I noticed Spreadex were top priced at 50/1 and quarter first 3.  Thought that was about right, but tried to put on £25 e/w.  They limited me to about 36p e/w (can't remember it exactly as didn't put the bet on but think it was between 10p and 50p). 

During the week I have got £25 on Betfair at 75/1 and 80/1.  The place betting is miserable, but don't think 12/1 is far out (maybe 10/1 might be fair??).

This really is sad.  If it wasn't Bradford City, I'd lay that bet FFS.  Do none of the companies have any gamble in them anymore?  I'd understand if they limited it to a £500 loss, but £20 or so on a mug football market?  Embarrassing.

[Doobs]

More frustration in trying to get bets on.

I have an old Spreadex account.  I used to bet on spreads, but that was 20 odd years ago.  I have had 9 fixed odds bets lifetime with them.  The last one was in 2024, the one before that in 2022.  My last bet lost, so not even sure if it was based on that. I have bet £400 odd quid total and am down more than £100. 

I am a Bradford City fan, so thought I'd put a fun bet on them this season.  I am a realist, and think they should stay up, but challenging is a stretch.  They were lucky to win at home to Wycombe on the first day, and most of their recruitment was decent league 2 players.  I noticed Spreadex were top priced at 50/1 and quarter first 3.  Thought that was about right, but tried to put on £25 e/w.  They limited me to about 36p e/w (can't remember it exactly as didn't put the bet on but think it was between 10p and 50p). 

During the week I have got £25 on Betfair at 75/1 and 80/1.  The place betting is miserable, but don't think 12/1 is far out (maybe 10/1 might be fair??).

This really is sad.  If it wasn't Bradford City, I'd lay that bet FFS.  Do none of the companies have any gamble in them anymore?  I'd understand if they limited it to a £500 loss, but £20 or so on a mug football market?  Embarrassing.

..and now have £15 on the promotion market at 11.5/1 and 11/1.   So could get better value and 12/1 wasn't far out.  We are at home to Luton at the weekend, and not only are we 2nd favourites at home, they can afford Nikki Nahki Wells. 

80/1 is just where we are, despite Ewood Park heroics.  Now if we could just do this every week I am going to be rich.  https://x.com/officialbantams/status/1955509631083585738?t=7EIw_rPWaO9T4mk0mhcCjA&s=19

[EssexPhil]

Used to rant about this every year next door. But this year the BBC Sport "experts" have excelled themselves.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cx27rrrz2nko

That's 35 "experts". Total number of those experts who have had the remotest success as Managers? 0.

Here is their considered opinion as to who will be Top 4 in the Prem this year:-

Liverpool-35
Arsenal-35
Man City-35
Chelsea-35.

The other 16 teams?-0. That is 0 for Aston Villa, Man Utd, Newcastle, Spurs et al.

Imagine if every horse racing tipster in the Press only ever tipped the favourite. People would-quite rightly-regard them as a waste of flesh.

[bagel]

if united newcastle or spurs get top 4 , the manager deserves a statue

[EssexPhil]

To give last season as an example. Liverpool ran away with it. But close after that:-

Arsenal 74 pts
City 71 pts
Chelsea 69 pts
Newcastle/Villa 66 pts

Season before that, both Villa and Spurs above Chelsea. And Man U have spent squillions. That 0 out of 35 put any of them in a Top 4 is daft

Chelsea are 4/6 to be Top 4. When you add in the "round" realistically they are an Even money shot. 35/35 is ridiculous

[Doobs]

Used to rant about this every year next door. But this year the BBC Sport "experts" have excelled themselves.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cx27rrrz2nko

That's 35 "experts". Total number of those experts who have had the remotest success as Managers? 0.

Here is their considered opinion as to who will be Top 4 in the Prem this year:-

Liverpool-35
Arsenal-35
Man City-35
Chelsea-35.

The other 16 teams?-0. That is 0 for Aston Villa, Man Utd, Newcastle, Spurs et al.

Imagine if every horse racing tipster in the Press only ever tipped the favourite. People would-quite rightly-regard them as a waste of flesh.

Not even sure what the argument is, if someone asked me the likeliest top 4, that is the correct answer. 

Don't people mostly regard horse racing tipsters as a waste of flesh? Chompy is very good by the way, but most seem to have little interest in making a profit from backing horses.

[EssexPhil]

Let me try and explain.

We can all see the likeliest Top 4. We can go on to various sites, like Oddschecker, and see that. For free.

The BBC has used our money to pay 35 experts to provide an opinion. To provide insight via their professional knowledge and contacts. To provide supposedly informed opinion. Not to read Oddschecker and charge me for the privilege.

You provide informed comment about Tennis. You give opinions. You don't just decide who is going to win based on the odds. Similarly, if 35 Tennis experts were asked to provide their 4 tips for likeliest Winners at Wimbledon, I expect you would be pretty p1ssed off if all 35 just picked the Number 1-4 seeds.

The bookmakers odds seem clear to me. Roughly speaking-

Liverpool have a 33/35 chance of being Top 4.
Arsenal have a 29/35 chance.
Man City have a 28/35 chance.
Chelsea have a 21/35 chance.

Which means the other teams, between them, have a 29/35 chance. Which is a lot more than 0.

When Leicester won the Prem, number of experts predicting Top 4? 0
2 years ago, Aston Villa? 2.

[Doobs]

Let me try and explain.

We can all see the likeliest Top 4. We can go on to various sites, like Oddschecker, and see that. For free.

The BBC has used our money to pay 35 experts to provide an opinion. To provide insight via their professional knowledge and contacts. To provide supposedly informed opinion. Not to read Oddschecker and charge me for the privilege.

You provide informed comment about Tennis. You give opinions. You don't just decide who is going to win based on the odds. Similarly, if 35 Tennis experts were asked to provide their 4 tips for likeliest Winners at Wimbledon, I expect you would be pretty p1ssed off if all 35 just picked the Number 1-4 seeds.

The bookmakers odds seem clear to me. Roughly speaking-

Liverpool have a 33/35 chance of being Top 4.
Arsenal have a 29/35 chance.
Man City have a 28/35 chance.
Chelsea have a 21/35 chance.

Which means the other teams, between them, have a 29/35 chance. Which is a lot more than 0.

When Leicester won the Prem, number of experts predicting Top 4? 0
2 years ago, Aston Villa? 2.

Not sure why you are explaining your point, I understood it and disagreed with it.

Also your understanding of probability seems slightly wrong.  Bookmaker odds are one sided.  So if they have a team at 30/35 the probability of it happening is usually less than 30/35.  So the expected occurrence of a non top 4 side is going to be even greater than 29/35.

But if someone asked me who were going to be the top 4 this year, I'd still say these 4, as that is the most likely correct answer.

I think the question is terrible, not the experts.  I would probably let the person who asked the question why it wasn't a great question.

The question you want is who is best value, then that will give the experts the chance to shine.  Make them pick a long shot.  But even then, they'll likely fail, because as with most horse racing pundits, they don't really have a feel for value, and hence just pick a selection that was likely to win.

[EssexPhil]

I get that you don't understand why I am trying to explain my point. It could of course be that I just like the sound of my own voice. Or it could be that you don't understand the point I am trying to make. But please feel free to be confident that you know better than me what point I am trying to make.

With regard to you disagreeing about the make up of the Top 4, that's perfectly fine. I would expect more people to agree with you on that-just not 35 out of 35 out of people who are paid to be pundits.

In relation to the probability, you are completely correct. In reality, the bookies make profit via the Probability exceeding 1 by a considerable margin. Typically, using my 35 number, the total would be about 50/35. Which, as you rightly say, makes the Probability of the Top 4 being the 4 favourites considerably less likely (although still more likely than anything else).

The question posed to these 35 experts was not who is most likely to be Top 4. It was who, on their opinion, would be Top 4. Which is a different question. With a much more individual answer. If 20, even 25, pundits said those 4, completely understandable. 35 is just plain wrong.

The question of Top 4 is, of itself, highly misleading. Financially, for years it was the be-all and end-all. Not now. 5th gets Champions League, too-which is why Newcastle are there. And for the 17th-placed Spurs who, with Man Utd gave up on the League with several games left. Which I detest-but that is the new financial reality

If you look at the Odds for Top 5, rather than Top 4, they are massively different. Let me give 2 examples.

Chelsea are 1/3 to be Top 5, rather than 4/6 Top 4. Why? 3 reasons. Firstly, no-one will care whether they are 4th or 5th-any more than they used to care whether they were 3rd or 4th. Secondly, a deep run in Europe may mean incentive for league position will drop. Thirdly, Chelsea face a really tough run-in. Their last 11 games include Arsenal, Villa and Liverpool away, and Newcastle Man City Man Utd and Spurs at Home. Because those odds of 4/6 and 1/3 would normally make no sense together. But the Bookies clearly feel it likely that Chelsea may well ease up in the League at the end.

Man Utd are best priced at 5/4 to be Top 5. Not odds I would touch. But for none of those 35 to take a punt on a Top 4 prediction is bizarre. And I know football should not be tribal. But when, for example, Rooney won't say Man U could be Top 4, Shearer won't say Newcastle will, and Walcott tips Liverpool to win the League, it just seems a bit sad.