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Poker Hand Analysis
Is there a wrong play here ?
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Topic: Is there a wrong play here ? (Read 2152 times)
lazaroonie
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Posts: 3108
Your a dead man Den Watts !!
Is there a wrong play here ?
«
on:
February 16, 2006, 11:18:44 AM »
I am interested to hear opinions on this. It is a hand from a live tournament I played last week, the hand in question is the very last hand of the rebuy period. I have amassed around 13K in chips from a starting position of 4K (no rebuys). I am in the BB and blinds are 100/200. Player 1 is in mid position, and Player 2 is in the small blind. There are 8 players at the table.
Some Background :
Player 1 - Seems to be fairly solid, and bets when he has a hand, or has position. (Chip count approx 12K)
Player 2 - Is totally wild gambler. Has had 5 rebuys in 90 minutes. Seems to overvalue his hands (has around 5K)
Table folds round to player 1, who raises to 1000. Player 2 instantly re-raises all in. I look down at my cards and see :
I spend a few minutes in silence, mainly becuase player 1 cant stop talking, and I am hoping he is going to keep talking. I manage to deduce that he is going all in no matter what I do. Mainly because I hear him saying to his mate "I'm going all in here even if he calls".
So what do you do
Fold/Call/All In
??
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SupaMonkey
Sr. Member
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Allin!
Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #1 on:
February 16, 2006, 12:26:52 PM »
In my opinion,
With the wide range of hands you can put player 2 on i think that you have to at least call his all in raise. I think that its unlikely he has aces but he may have kings and this would be the only hand i would be afraid of here. Player 1 may be making some kind of a speech play here to try and get you out of the pot. I think he has something like A-K rather than a monster (if he had a monster he would probably want you call). Given his speech play, I would reraise all in. After he has just announced he is going to call anyway, i think that your reraise would look very strong and he would need a very strong hand to call it (and if he is a solid player your are really asking him a question here).
This way you are likely to get heads up with the wild guy for all of his stack.
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DC
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Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #2 on:
February 16, 2006, 01:03:51 PM »
My opinion for whats it worth.....
Of the 3 options available to you, I think you can instantly discount a flat call - this sends out the signal you have a moderate hand. After all his chat, player 1 will likely raise all in, leaving you with no option but to stick all your chips in (well, you'll have 1k left). You're then in a 3 way fight, which is probably not where you want to be. Soooo, dont flat call.
That leaves you with 2 options - fold pocket Q's or re-raise all in. Given the way the players have played, the situation you really want to get to (in my opinion) is a heads up with player 2 - his play is so erractic you've got to be confident with Q's. The question then becomes if you re-raise all in will player 1 call, or is he all chat? So how has he acted throughout the rest of the night - the last good hand he had, did he excitedly tell his friends?
Its not an easy call, but I would call his bluff, re-raise all in. Then, hopefully, player 1 folds and u end up in a heads up with P2....
If it were me, thats what I would do, and P1 would call and show
and P2 would show
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yt
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Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #3 on:
February 16, 2006, 01:47:38 PM »
Quote from: lazaroonie on February 16, 2006, 11:18:44 AM
I spend a few minutes in silence, mainly becuase player 1 cant stop talking, and I am hoping he is going to keep talking. I manage to deduce that he is going all in no matter what I do. Mainly because I hear him saying to his mate "I'm going all in here even if he calls".
lol Thanks for that, just spat coffee on the screen!
I would fold. Last hand of the rebuy and you have done so much hard work to get to 14k. You are well above average and can out play these phishy people later on.....right?
If mouthy is going all in then thats 12k of your 14 gone if he has the goods. dont do it......
Ive done called it here loads of times and regreted every one! you will feel better folding....
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SupaMonkey
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Allin!
Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #4 on:
February 16, 2006, 01:56:57 PM »
Good tournament advice yt. I think that player 1 is tipping us off about the strength of his hand. If he is telling his mate he is calling no matter what then you can remove AA and KK from his list of potential hands because he wouldn't need to tell his mate he was calling with those. I think it is a show of bravdo to tell his mate he is calling no matter what so i think he may have a hand weaker than A-K but its hard to say. I do think you are right though.
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rivered
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Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #5 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:03:19 PM »
I'm flat calling, and calling his all in reraise if he makes one, but if not then all in on flop with no AK, and thinking about things if there is an AK - probably folding. reasons are....
Player 2 - stick him on something that contains an A or mid pair. Player 1 - stick him on AK, JJ, TT, 99, maybe AQ. Good luck to them both if they have KK or AA... you can't do much about that... So, I'm going to call here. You could go all in, but there is a chance (albeit small one) that the other guy won't go all in, and will just call. This gives you options if an A or K comes on the flop - why take away those options - you've said it - he's not gonna go away if you're all in. I'm thinking that you're either dominating player 2 with an overpair, or you're 50:50, but there's the chance player 2 has one of player 1's aces, so your odds are improving.
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lazaroonie
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Your a dead man Den Watts !!
Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #6 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:04:47 PM »
My immediate thought was to fold, as you say I had played steadily to get up to 14K, and it really would have been criminal to blow all of them in one hand. But then I started to think. I wasnt at all worried about the loosey goosey to my right. I was convinced he had a smaller pair. It was the steady eddie I gave all thought to. The raise to 1000, was really only a raise of 4X BB, which made me think about what kind of hands he would be to that amount with. My thoughts we AK, JJ, and obviously Queens! I felt we would have had a bigger raise from mid position if he held AA or KK.
In the end, after maybe 5 minutes had passed, I lit a cafe creme, took a drag and announced "all in", expecting him to fold. He called in an instant......
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yt
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Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #7 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:08:43 PM »
very cool table image....!
i guess you were winning, but ended up losing....?
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lazaroonie
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Your a dead man Den Watts !!
Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #8 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:13:30 PM »
oh aye.... and he turned over AK o/s. The other player turned over 9 9. I was pleased with this outcome. I was worried for the few seconds between him calling and turning over his cards. Seems like he overvalued his big slick - considering earlier he had folded pocket Jacks when again I held pocket Queens on a rag flop, I thought he would have folded it.
the board helped no-one, and I took the pot.
coming next : Episode 2 : How I spunked away 40K chips trying to steal from the button with A9 o/s
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yt
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Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #9 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:19:38 PM »
Thinking more about this, I lose more tourneys with QQ than any other hand. A raggy old Ace almost always beats it (or so it seems). The few occations I did lay down QQ I normally find I would have lost it (so good move) and go on to do well in the tourney.
As much as winning a nice big hand, a good well thought out lay down does wonders for your confidence in the tourney.
Also with rebuys the advantage of being above average going into the freezeout is so massive that any decision you make in the last part of the rebuy period has to be absolutly correct every time.
And after saying all that - How cool would it be to end the rebuy on 30K!!!!!!!!! CALLLLLLLLLLLL! ALL IN!!!!!!! YES! YES YES!
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yt
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Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #10 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:27:06 PM »
Quote from: lazaroonie on February 16, 2006, 02:13:30 PM
coming next : Episode 2 : How I spunked away 40K chips trying to steal from the button with A9 o/s
I love it. I too do this with ATo. WHY WHY WHY WHY do we?
"ATo raise, steal. yeah yeah heh heh"
"how dare you call me... Flop A K 4, Continuation bet yeah heh heh heh 2/3 pot heh heh that will take it down"
"He called me again! Right then. Does he
KNOW
I'm chip leader? Turn 5 rainbow. Continuation bet him again heh heh yeah yeah that will do it"
"All in! the bstad! but now its only 4k to call a 16k pot. dammit dammit. I call"
"He's got AK! nooooooooo why didnt he reraise me pre-flop?! argggghhhhhh. Im not chip leader anymore sniff sniff"
ring any bells out there?
I go home cursing crappy AT steals so many times...
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lazaroonie
Hero Member
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Posts: 3108
Your a dead man Den Watts !!
Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #11 on:
February 16, 2006, 02:38:53 PM »
Actually it was much much worse than that.
Table of 9, only one caller blinds at 1/2K.
"I raise to 10K" - great move, to win 5K, pure genius.....haha watch them all fold.....
small blind - "I'm all in" - watch them all fold now
"I aint folding...." - I CALL !!! arghhhh!
I guess you could say I was outkickered.....My kicker with my ace was a NINE.....his was an ACE.....goodnight, godbless...
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Teacake
Hero Member
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Posts: 2526
Re: Is there a wrong play here ?
«
Reply #12 on:
February 16, 2006, 07:14:37 PM »
Funny as, Laz always cracks me up
I was standing behind him when the A9o hand happened & thought he was just making it look a harder decision than it was as his opponent is a very tight player & one of the few who had him outchipped.
I nearly dropped my pint when he called
but then again my exit was nearly as bad as his & it was about 2 hours earlier
yt, your right about his table image, its fantastic
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