Odds and Sods quiz

[stallyon]

Quiz entered, looking forward to the prize.

there's a prize??? ooooh, what do i get?

[rivered]

In a two way pot there are only 4 cards on board and 4 cards in the hands of the players - therefore the two outs are contained within the 44 remaining cards in the deck.

In a three way pot there are 4 cards on board and 6 cards in the hands of the players - therefore the two outs are contained within the remaining 42 cards in the deck.

This will therefore improve the chances of hitting your 2 outer.

(of course you have to also take burn cards into consideration in live tourneys but you get the gist )

Thx Matt.  I see where you're coming from but not sure if I really agree or fully understand.... let's pretend there are 20 odd players, so that there are only two cards left to come in the deck... this doesn't mean you have a 2 in 2 chance (i.e. perfect chance) of hitting your two-outer.... by having more players, you're increasing your chances of hitting from the remaining live cards, but you're also increasing the chances of the other players holding those cards.... therefore shouldn't you always calculate odds including the other players' / dead cards?

[matt674]

Yes you should always calculate pot odds including other players "dead cards" but they are never the actual odds, thats why when they have the WPT events where they show the hole cards and winning percentages next to a players hand they take into account other players hole cards. Sometimes you'll hear Vince Van Patten saying "He thinks it's a race but we know that Phil passed a King so he's only a 43% favourite to win".

Like TightEnd says, i'm just an awkward primate - the question asks what are the odds of hitting and therefore you have to assume that both the outs are live otherwise the answers should read (1) 0%-4.32% (2) 0%-5.25% (3) 0%-8.3% etc etc and therefore if you know that both your outs are live then the answer will change depending on how many people started the hand.

[londonpokergirl]

too damn clever monkey    i prefer how many outs you have   hehe

[matt674]

Yes i have to admit i'm from the same school of thought there - i always want to be figuring out what my opponents odds of outdrawing me are.

But then i think that applies to every poker player out there!!

[rivered]

all is understood!  And I know I'm gonna get to try this one out on friends and watch them stratch away trying to work it out!!... or maybe everyone isn't as stoooopid as me   

[stallyon]

would there be answers to this quiz at all???

[TightEnd]

snoopy


calling the beagle.....


there is another one set to go.....

[way_too_tight]

In a two way pot there are only 4 cards on board and 4 cards in the hands of the players - therefore the two outs are contained within the 44 remaining cards in the deck.

In a three way pot there are 4 cards on board and 6 cards in the hands of the players - therefore the two outs are contained within the remaining 42 cards in the deck.

This will therefore improve the chances of hitting your 2 outer.

(of course you have to also take burn cards into consideration in live tourneys but you get the gist )

Can you confirm for my sanity that you are kidding here ?

The number of people in a pot doesn't change your odds of hitting any given card unless you know that they hold / don't hold it. It does affect your odds of holding the winning hand at showdown.

Burn cards have absolutely, positively, no effect on drawing odds.

[matt674]

The number of people in a pot doesn't change your odds of hitting any given card unless you know that they hold / don't hold it. It does affect your odds of holding the winning hand at showdown.

If you read my later post on the thread you may understand more what i was trying to convay in my first post. The way the answers were constructed i read that to believe that you are assuming that the outs are "live" (as in the question about hitting your 2 outer after the turn). If you are to assume that both your outs are live then you need to know how many players started the hand to work out the actual odds of hitting.

[Sunday8pm]

ok im all entered in

[snoopy1239]

Sry - new quiz going up shortly.

[way_too_tight]

The number of people in a pot doesn't change your odds of hitting any given card unless you know that they hold / don't hold it. It does affect your odds of holding the winning hand at showdown.

If you read my later post on the thread you may understand more what i was trying to convay in my first post. The way the answers were constructed i read that to believe that you are assuming that the outs are "live" (as in the question about hitting your 2 outer after the turn). If you are to assume that both your outs are live then you need to know how many players started the hand to work out the actual odds of hitting.

I've read it all, and I had previous to posting as well.

I maintain that the number of players dealt in has no effect on whether you hit your outs or not.

In any given hand, once the deck is shuffled, you are going to get 5 random board cards from the deck. Therefore, before the deal, there is a 1/52 chance that any specific one of the board cards will be any given card from the deck. The number of players dealt in or left in the hand has no bearing on this fact.

This is providing we are talking about hitting outs, not winning pots. The idea that you are assuming that your cards are still in the deck is a strange one for me, but it has been a popular thought amongst the people I've discussed this with in the past.

You don't have to assume that your outs are live to know your chance of hitting them. You are simply working out the odds that, at shuffle time, one of the cards you need will be in one of the remaining places. The other unseen cards have absolutely no bearing on this.

You could possibly adjust your odds a shade if you "know" that the tight-ass in seat 1 who's betting has definitely paired his A, and so that's one fewer non-flush cards in the unknown collection of cards.

The WPT thing is exactly the same, just there are fewer unknown cards.

Bryan.

[yt]

The number of people in a pot doesn't change your odds of hitting any given card unless you know that they hold / don't hold it. It does affect your odds of holding the winning hand at showdown.

If you read my later post on the thread you may understand more what i was trying to convay in my first post. The way the answers were constructed i read that to believe that you are assuming that the outs are "live" (as in the question about hitting your 2 outer after the turn). If you are to assume that both your outs are live then you need to know how many players started the hand to work out the actual odds of hitting.

I've read it all, and I had previous to posting as well.

I maintain that the number of players dealt in has no effect on whether you hit your outs or not.

In any given hand, once the deck is shuffled, you are going to get 5 random board cards from the deck. Therefore, before the deal, there is a 1/52 chance that any specific one of the board cards will be any given card from the deck. The number of players dealt in or left in the hand has no bearing on this fact.

This is providing we are talking about hitting outs, not winning pots. The idea that you are assuming that your cards are still in the deck is a strange one for me, but it has been a popular thought amongst the people I've discussed this with in the past.

You don't have to assume that your outs are live to know your chance of hitting them. You are simply working out the odds that, at shuffle time, one of the cards you need will be in one of the remaining places. The other unseen cards have absolutely no bearing on this.

You could possibly adjust your odds a shade if you "know" that the tight-ass in seat 1 who's betting has definitely paired his A, and so that's one fewer non-flush cards in the unknown collection of cards.

The WPT thing is exactly the same, just there are fewer unknown cards.

Bryan.

Ok I'm with Way to tight on this one. I dont see how the amount of people in a hand effects your outs unless you know he has your card.
If there are 44 unseen cards then there are 44 unseen cards.

i hope im right otherwise ive been miss calculating for ages

[matt674]

Ok I'm with Way to tight on this one. I dont see how the amount of people in a hand effects your outs unless you know he has your card.
If there are 44 unseen cards then there are 44 unseen cards.

i hope im right otherwise ive been miss calculating for ages

Yes you should always calculate pot odds including other players "dead cards" but they are never the actual odds,

2. After the turn what is the probability of improving your hand with only two outs? 
 (a) 2.2%
 (b) 8.4%
 (c) 6.5%
 (d) 4.3%

This was what the question said. Lets take 2 examples.

(a) You are playing heads up, you hold KK and the board reads Q-2-4-7 rainbow you go all in on the turn and your opponent calls turning over AA. What is the probability of you improving your hand with only 2 outs?

(b) You are playing 6 handed, you hold KK and the board reads Q-2-4-7 rainbow you go all in on the turn and your 5 opponents all call turning over AA, QQ, 10-10, 6-6 and 3-3. What is the probability of you improving your hand with only 2 outs?

Are the answers to (a) and (b) the same?