Odds question.

[ThePower]

This might be a bit of a dumb question but i'll ask anyway....

I am in an mtt, 14 players left, with an average 40k. Blinds 3k/6k.

In mid position i find  , and raise to 18k.

The button (very tight) quickly moves in for 29k total, the blinds fold and before i get a chance to decide, button types in the lobby "i have AA".

It is back to me. Its 11k to call, there's (18+29+6+3=) 56k in the pot, so i'm getting 5-1 on the call. If i think he's lying, its not an issue, i call, but i don't think he is. If he has AA, i'm a 4-1 shot. So the pot odds are (marginally) there.

My question is, is it still correct to call off 11k here (leaving me with a pretty useless 2bbs if i lose), on what is essentially a long shot? (unless he's lying that is....)

[CelticGeezeer]

Even if he is lying the best you can hope for is two over cards and a 50-50 shot. I you fancy a gamble then go for it.

At this point the 3xbb raise gives you the option of folding to a reraise so if your going to call you should have gone all in from the start.

[12barblues]

It's not a dumb question.  The only dumb questions are those that are not asked, even when someone wants help or simply a different view on an issue.

As I see it, this board is not the sole preserve of the experts.  Part of the 'fun' is seeing where you went wrong in the play or analysis of a hand, making it both a teaching and a learning tool.  Even the good players often have differences of opinion.  That said, you have to make up your own mind as to the quality of any given piece of analysis**   

As for the hand in question, it seems to me that the tournament is firmly in crapshoot territory, given that the average stack is only around seven times the big blind.  Non-premium pairs are very difficult to play in this situation as you are badly damaged if you raise pre-flop and then fold on the flop when you miss your set.  The consequence is that your pre-flop decision here is really between a 'steal' push or a fold.  The choice would depend on how the players still to act have been playing (tight? loose?), the prize structure and your personal view of the value of creeping up the list versus a 'win or bust' attitude.

Given that you already have half your stack in the pot and you have the right odds to call, I would go for it and call even though you are  probably in the classic 'small favourite (against 2 overcards) or big underdog (against a bigger pair)' situation.  I am more worried by the tightness of the button than by his speechplay. 

** Clue: I am on the 'learning' side of the teaching/learning divide.     

[KeithyB]

Agree with the call verdicts here.

With the blinds as big as they are, confrontations are inevitable at this stage.  If you're going to progress you're going to have to win some confrontations and with the blinds this big you haven't got the luxuary of seeing a couple of flops cheaply.

If you fold you're only left with enough to just another couple of rounds of blinds which puts you under huge pressure to find another hand in time.

Might not feel right to call the reraise now but by your initial raising to 18k I think you've already committed yourself to the pot (whatever he has).

Is this an actual hand? If so what happened?

[ThePower]

Yeah, it was a genuine hand, in the end i called, was too much in the pot to fold IMO, and he did have the AA as he said.

Flop gave me a bit of hope , but i missed and was out 2 hands later.

Thanks for your replies, i feel a bit more confident i did the right thing by calling, despite the (inevitable) outcome.