HELP - From being in the form of my life i now cant buy a placing!!

[Triple X]

Someone help please.  I have steadily been building up my bankroll playing $20-$30 SNG's - played 200 this year.  Went through a big surge recently with something like 13 placings in 16 and a few firsts as well which took my ROI to 34%

However since then i have just hit a terrible run.  cannot even get in the money let alone win the damn things.  I know this is a small sample but over 200 this run of the last 15 is like nothing else.  I honestly do not think i am playing any differently (maybe in a couple i have tilted but most of the time i have playedthe same) but i seem to get poor cards or outdrawn or my KK runs into AA.

This is not a bad beat moan - just a plea esp to the SNG specialists out there as to how i get myself back on track

Thanks guys


6   19.9%
3   20.3%
2   21.3%
8   20.3%
2   21.3%
2   22.0%
1   23.7%
6   22.8%
1   24.4%
2   25.1%
1   28.3%
3   28.7%
2   29.3%
1   30.9%
5   29.7%
1   31.3%
1   34.2%
6   33.5%
4   32.1%
7   30.8%
4   30.1%
3   30.3%
8   29.0%
6   28.4%
6   27.7%
9   27.1%
3   27.3%
6   26.5%
7   25.9%
9   25.3%
2   26.1%
6   24.8%
5   24.0%
5   23.3%

[Wardonkey]

If your confident your game is strong then try not to worry about it too much.

I've done 17 without cashing before...

You can drop 30 buy-ins without doing much wrong, it's just the ugly beast that is variance. Make sure your bankroll can deal with this, I recommend 50 buyins min, if you play with less then accept it's possible that you can do the lot.

Before you start analysing your ROI etc you need to get at least 500 tourneys under your belt preferably 1,000. The long term is very long..

Can you explain your numbers at the bottom of your post, I'm not sure that I completely understand what your displaying.

Good luck.

[Triple X]

1st column is my placing - the 2nd column is my ROI after that tourney

hear what u say - just that 16 tourneys with just 3 cashes is just such a shock seeing as how consistent i have been over the previous 200.

[Triple X]

and its one more out of the money.  On the river just to rub it in and with 2 kings out and someone admitting they folded one

PokerStars Game #4575135695: Tournament #22805528, Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2006/04/09 - 18:41:38 (ET)
Table '22805528 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: H2ozep (2510 in chips)
Seat 2: DeadMoney78 (4690 in chips)
Seat 3: Rivsec (1800 in chips)
Seat 4: ESRUCEHT (1045 in chips)
Seat 5: uwannadance (845 in chips)
Seat 7: dc9lives (990 in chips)
Seat 8: arceagle (1620 in chips)
dc9lives: posts small blind 100
arceagle: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rivsec [ ]
H2ozep: folds
DeadMoney78: folds
Rivsec: raises 400 to 600
ESRUCEHT: folds
uwannadance: raises 245 to 845 and is all-in
dc9lives: raises 145 to 990 and is all-in
arceagle: folds
Rivsec: calls 390
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
dc9lives: shows [ ] (two pair, Kings and Fours)
Rivsec: shows [ ] (two pair, Queens and Fours)
dc9lives collected 290 from side pot
uwannadance: shows [ ] (two pair, Kings and Fours - Jack kicker)
uwannadance collected 2735 from main pot
dc9lives said, "gg"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3025 Main pot 2735. Side pot 290. | Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 1: H2ozep folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: DeadMoney78 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Rivsec showed [ ] and lost with two pair, Queens and Fours
Seat 4: ESRUCEHT folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: uwannadance (button) showed [ ] and won (2735) with two pair, Kings and Fours
Seat 7: dc9lives (small blind) showed [ ] and won (290) with two pair, Kings and Fours
Seat 8: arceagle (big blind) folded before Flop

[Wardonkey]

If can hold an ROI of over 20% then your doingb very well. I doubt at 30% ROI is sustainable even at the $20/30 level.

[thetank]

The worst thing about bad runs is also the best thing. You don't know how long they're going to be.

The next one you play could be the start of a winning stretch. All the more likely if you keep it together in your head. Worry about the things you can control, not about the things you can't.

The last thing you want to do is overdose on fizzy juice and start writing consolatory "long-run" poetry.

For every top place prize, there be a bad-boy bubble.
It'll be ok, there won't be bad-boy trouble.
On thy bad-boy bubble, a buy-in one might lose.
Extra when you're first, will pay for bad-boy booze.

Good Luck 

[Triple X]

The worst thing about bad runs is also the best thing. You don't know how long they're going to be.

The next one you play could be the start of a winning stretch. All the more likely if you keep it together in your head. Worry about the things you can control, not about the things you can't.

The last thing you want to do is overdose on fizzy juice and start writing consolatory "long-run" poetry.

For every top place prize, there be a bad-boy bubble.
It'll be ok, there won't be bad-boy trouble.
On thy bad-boy bubble, a buy-in one might lose.
Extra when you're first, will pay for bad-boy booze.

Good Luck 

LOL - thanks Tank - gonna drop down a level tonight as until my run improves the bankroll cant take the bigger entries

[tikay]

Never underestimate two things - variance, & "form" - they cause truly huge swings.

There is more luck in poker than many players are prepared to admit.

And if you start thinking about bad beats, as you have demonstrated you have - now you DO have a problem, because you are deluding yourself, for sure.

Over 200 SNG's, your luck will, broadly speaking, level out. Maybe, I dunno, (hypothetical number) 100 bad beats, but, more to the point, 100 suck-outs. If you have reached the point where you are remembering the bad-beats, you have a problem, because you are forgetting the suck-outs which you also had.

I'd venture to suggest that you have a winning game at the level you have been playing, & you are suffering from adverse variance & bad form. But if you start dwelling on those bad-beats, you are truly deluding yourself.  They are part & parcel of the game, and you have almost certainly had just as many suck-outs.

One last thing. Whether you play for recreational reasons, or for a living, you MUST enjoy the game - "wiinning but not enjoying" is no good, who wants a job they don't enjoy? So get those bad-beats out of your head, if they bother you that much, you are not getting the enjoyment out of the game (or job...) that you should.

Good Luck, & I hope your form soon turns.

[jammer]

good post tony.

I'd also add if you the variance is getting on top of you there a few things you can do:

1) change sites
2) change levels
3) change the no. players at your table choice.

Essentially these are all ways to get you out of a rut. Ruts are self-induced, they are a psychological result of not being able to cope (perhaps understandably!) with a trough in luck. And those troughs can be long. But if you stay focused by keeping fresh and applying some of the above suggestions you can get through it without losing your game (and your bankroll).

But its vital to recognise the rut and force yourself to get out of it. Its not easy to change sites for example if you are 'comfortable' there, but sometimes its necessary to get your game back with a bit perspective.

[Indestructable]

Agreed with Jammers post.
Another suggestion is to take a break.
Don't know your circumstances well enough, but sometimes you need to get away from poker for a week to recharge the batteries.

[I, Zimbra]

It sounds to me that I am in exactly the same boat as you.

The last time I played on Stars, I racked up twenty or so tournaments with an embarrassingly high (and utterly meaningless) ROI; I recently started playing there again, and cannot place at all.

I do not feel as though I am playing badly, although I have made a couple of errors that are due to pushing hands because I desperately want to win something, and that's always a danger on losing runs... I am obviously trying to cut that out.

My last seven SnGs have all resulted in 4th or 5th place finishes, and my earliest exits are on level three (and most occur on levels four and five). What does this tell me?

--- Well, I'm not playing silly hands early on.

--- I'm not losing big pots with junk hands when there's still 8 or 9 players at the table.

--- I am being aggressive when the blinds get higher, and the tables get more short-handed, which seems correct to me.

So how am I losing out? I look at my exits, and I see that I am only winning maybe one-fifth of my coinflips. I try and keep the coinflips to a minimum, but if I haven't been able to build up a decent stack before level four or five, a coinflip or 60-40 hand is very likely going to decide whether I get in the money or not.

Sometimes I even take on a coinflip if I think it will give me a huge stack I can use to whack everyone else in line with, to give me a better chance of a first place finish (rather than second or third), as this is supposed to give me a greater profit in the long run.

I am taking a couple of days off to reassess, but I am not panicking yet - but I understand fully how frustrating it is, when you go from being golden to suddenly not being able to get anywhere.

The important thing to do, as I understand it,  is to evaluate your play coldly and honestly, which is how I am handling the situation.

[tikay]

It sounds to me that I am in exactly the same boat as you.

The last time I played on Stars, I racked up twenty or so tournaments with an embarrassingly high (and utterly meaningless) ROI; I recently started playing there again, and cannot place at all.

I do not feel as though I am playing badly, although I have made a couple of errors that are due to pushing hands because I desperately want to win something, and that's always a danger on losing runs... I am obviously trying to cut that out.

My last seven SnGs have all resulted in 4th or 5th place finishes, and my earliest exits are on level three (and most occur on levels four and five). What does this tell me?

--- Well, I'm not playing silly hands early on.

--- I'm not losing big pots with junk hands when there's still 8 or 9 players at the table.

--- I am being aggressive when the blinds get higher, and the tables get more short-handed, which seems correct to me.

So how am I losing out? I look at my exits, and I see that I am only winning maybe one-fifth of my coinflips. I try and keep the coinflips to a minimum, but if I haven't been able to build up a decent stack before level four or five, a coinflip or 60-40 hand is very likely going to decide whether I get in the money or not.

Sometimes I even take on a coinflip if I think it will give me a huge stack I can use to whack everyone else in line with, to give me a better chance of a first place finish (rather than second or third), as this is supposed to give me a greater profit in the long run.

I am taking a couple of days off to reassess, but I am not panicking yet - but I understand fully how frustrating it is, when you go from being golden to suddenly not being able to get anywhere.

The important thing to do, as I understand it,  is to evaluate your play coldly and honestly, which is how I am handling the situation.

Re-assess those coin-flip situations. If - IF - you get your money in FIRST, then on some occasions, the oppo must pass. So your coin-flip stats (assumed) are better than you think. And if someone moves BEFOREv you & you have AK/AQ/AJ, well, you don't HAVE to shove it in - call to see the flop, or, maybe better, just pass. Always better to get your mioney in first, as Oppo may pass.

[M3boy]

Chasing that illusive win when you are "out of form" is VERY dangerous indeed (I should know, it cost me my whole roll last year!!)

Spot the signs, and put a stop to it!!

Bad runs WILL happen, i dont care how good you are or WHO you are - The trick is to deal with them properly. If you are happy that your game is sound, DONT change anything.

I am currently "out of form" but am doing my dammned hardest to take my own advice - which aint easy.

The only thing I have done is to cut down on the tournaments I am playing - but not playing them any different.

It will turn around I tell ya,,, it will!!!!

[I, Zimbra]

So how am I losing out? I look at my exits, and I see that I am only winning maybe one-fifth of my coinflips. I try and keep the coinflips to a minimum, but if I haven't been able to build up a decent stack before level four or five, a coinflip or 60-40 hand is very likely going to decide whether I get in the money or not.

Re-assess those coin-flip situations. If - IF - you get your money in FIRST, then on some occasions, the oppo must pass. So your coin-flip stats (assumed) are better than you think. And if someone moves BEFOREv you & you have AK/AQ/AJ, well, you don't HAVE to shove it in - call to see the flop, or, maybe better, just pass. Always better to get your mioney in first, as Oppo may pass.

Tikay, that is excellent advice, and in fact that is exactly the situation I am facing. The coinflips I am talking about are mostly me on level 5 with 8x BB left, getting my money in with something like A-K, getting called by guy in next seat with 2-2 or 3-3. In most of these cases I am the initial aggressor.

Or, guy on button limps with A-9 suited... I think he will pass if I move my 9x BB stack all-in from the BB with my 7-7, but he calls instead. He only has 50% more chips than me, so he's very short if he loses the hand (Trapping, with A9? ) Board comes down 3TJQK, so I lose - but if I'd played it differently I still would probably have lost because I would have been out of position to a scary board.

I could go on, but you don't want that. 

I believe I had every reason to think that by moving with a hand like pocket sevens I could get A-9 to fold; but it wasn't to be.

[M3boy]

Well, advise taken.

Tonights $15k, played solid poker, made final table - got 3rd (unlucky not to go further, but when holding AJ on a A44 flop and an all in infront of you, you cant escape, well I couldnt anyway - he had AK)