PLO8 hand analysis NO BAD BEATs

[Ironside]

ok this is all very simple and basic stuff till the river now you have to ponder how good your hand is and if you can call with a person behind you still to act


PokerStars Game #4811948369: Tournament #23911782, $20+$2 Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/05/02 - 15:27:21 (ET)
Table '23911782 7' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: theharvmon (430 in chips)
Seat 2: newschool (760 in chips)
Seat 3: nam19 (1215 in chips)
Seat 4: Ironside (3165 in chips)
Seat 5: Foghorn51 (1230 in chips)
Seat 6: FaragoDan (3290 in chips)
Seat 7: viva (1675 in chips)
Seat 8: 9_balla (175 in chips)
Seat 9: lildave (1560 in chips)
9_balla: posts small blind 15
lildave: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ironside [As ]
newschool said, "double sigh"
theharvmon: calls 30
newschool: folds
nam19: calls 30
Ironside: calls 30
Foghorn51: calls 30
FaragoDan: calls 30
viva: calls 30
9_balla: calls 15
lildave: checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
9_balla: checks
lildave: checks
theharvmon: checks
nam19: checks
Ironside: checks
Foghorn51: checks
FaragoDan: checks
viva: checks
*** TURN *** [ ] []
9_balla: checks
lildave: checks
theharvmon: checks
nam19: checks
Ironside: bets 60
Foghorn51: calls 60
FaragoDan: folds
viva: folds
9_balla: folds
lildave: folds
theharvmon: calls 60
nam19: calls 60
*** RIVER *** [ ] [Ah]
theharvmon: bets 340 and is all-in
nam19: folds

[Ironside]

PokerStars Game #4813622988:  Omaha Hi/Lo Pot Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2006/05/02 - 18:33:31 (ET)
Table 'Amphitrite II' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: JaniOsmo ($99 in chips)
Seat 3: Ironside ($77.65 in chips)
Seat 4: $mokingGun ($207.85 in chips)
Seat 5: schupie ($98.25 in chips)
Seat 6: 2wenty5grand ($113.10 in chips)
Seat 7: MYBONNIE ($38 in chips)
Seat 8: jackstraw73 ($63.05 in chips)
schupie: posts small blind $0.50
2wenty5grand: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ironside [ ]
MYBONNIE: calls $1
jackstraw73: folds
JaniOsmo: folds
Ironside: calls $1
$mokingGun: folds
schupie: calls $0.50
2wenty5grand: checks
*** FLOP *** [ ]
schupie: checks
2wenty5grand: bets $3.80
MYBONNIE: calls $3.80
Ironside: raises $15.20 to $19
schupie: folds
2wenty5grand: folds
MYBONNIE: calls $15.20
*** TURN *** [ ] []
MYBONNIE: bets $18 and is all-in

ok on the flop i have the nuts but no redraws and a very vunerable hand so i want to take the pot down there and then or get out with the raise and the call i have Mybonnie on the flush draw with 2wenty5grand having the same straight or 2 pair or trips
now when 2wenty5grand getting out the way and mybonnie just calling i have confirmed too myself that mybonnie is on a draw but doesnt realise that he isnt getting the implied odds to call rather than go all in if he wants to play the draw

the turn is a horrid card for me if he has something like the then he is no longer drawing but there is now 60$ in pot and its 18$ to call with the 2nd nuts and top and bottom pair do i call or should i save the money for a rainy day?

[Sunday8pm]

first one pass,

2nd one call

[Ironside]

first one pass,

2nd one call

any thinking behind those choices?

[JungleCat03]

1. Call. Your King high flush is almost certainly good here. Someone wiht the nut flush is likely to have raised the turn to protect against a low draw. Unless they are playing A2d cutely of course but when they do your low will almsot  always get you out of trouble. You are pretty unlikely to scoop though given the betting pattern i would say.

When you are calling in a situation like this when you expect to win just half the pot you need to be 75% sure you are getting half the pot. I would say u win high about 90% of the time and have a small chance of getting the low or scooping. Would expect to see 23 or 24d here when i call.

2. I would call. They have too little back for you to pass. Throw in your straight and full house redraws and you are good to call here, i would say, although yes they will have AQ(h) sometimes here.

[JungleCat03]

Just noticed the straight flush possible. Lowers your chance of winning high a little as they could well slowplay this lock hand to let someone fill up and stack them but i would still think they would often riase to protect against the low coming and if they have the straight flush it's unlikely they are scooping you.

[redsimon]

First hand would depend on how the other player has played non nut hands. Possible that he made low with a weak flush and thinks he's got to get you off a counterfeited low with Ace on river and a weak flush which is better than his. I'd call. Calling wouldn't cripple your stack.