Hi all,
As, in my other life, I am the producer for the American Racing on Racing World, I’m supposed to know a bit about the Kentucky Derby. So here is my guide to “The Greatest 2 Minutes in Sport!”
1.JAZIL 30-1 – Shouldn’t be good enough to win this but will be staying on through tired races & could surprise if they go too quick in front.
2.STEPPENWOLFER 30-1 – Another outsider who will be finishing late. Again he shouldn’t be good enough & only chance is if the speed collapses up front.
3.KEYED ENTRY 30-1 – One of the likely pacesetters early on, it’s difficult to see how this outsider will be good enough to stay there.
4.SINISTER MINISTER 12-1 – Ran incrediblely quick times last time out at Keeneland, a front runners paradise. If the predicted early speed duels up front don’t take place he could get an easy lead & make all.
5.POINT DETERMINED 12-1 – Trainer Bob Baffert has the best of both worlds as he also trains Sinister Minister. If the speed on the front is too quick this one will be staying on & is good enough to win.
6.SHOWING UP 20-1 – Only just made it in to the Derby by winning his last race. Undefeated in 3 starts & improving, but his figures so far don’t suggest he is a KY Derby winner.
7.BOB AND JOHN 12-1 – Another Bob Baffet trained horse who won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time, which has proved to be one of the better prep races for the Derby. However, that was on a sloppy surface so it’s difficult to assess just how good that win was.
8.BARBARO 4-1 – Possibly the class horse of the race who has got in under the radar. Undefeated in 5 starts including the Grade 1 Florida Derby & 2 Grade 3. Has been good enough to win on turf (for which he is bred) & on a sloppy surface. Will be sitting just off the pace, ready to make his move as they enter the straight.
9.SHARP HUMOR 20-1 – One of the likely front runners who has been hard to settle in his races & in his morning works since. Can’t argue with his battling ½ length defeat by Barbaro in the Florida Derby & his trainer Dale Romans is in flying form at the moment.
10.A.P.WARRIOR 15-1 – Will be staying on past beaten horses & not totally without a chance but needs to turn around the form with Brother Derek & Point Determined who both beat him last time out.
11.SWEETNORTHENSAINT 10-1 – A popular choice as the likely winner after his 9 ¼ length win in the Illinois Derby a month ago & likely to sit just off the pace up front. The problem is, they didn’t go that quick at Hawthorne, so will he be good enough to keep up with the field in the early stages?
12.PRIVATE VOW 50-1 – Had some good form as a 2yo, including a win in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Cup but hasn’t shown too much in his 2 runs this year. Would need to improve, but third start off a lay-off is a popular betting angle in the States
13.BLUEGRASS CAT 30-1 – Was a big Derby contender until finishing 4th, 21 lengths behind Sinister Minister. Has had a couple of decent morning works since then but he needs to return to his previous form to have any chance here.
14.DEPUTY GLITTERS 50-1 – Major shock if this one wins. Trainer Tom Albitrani couldn’t train ivy up a wall!
15.SEASIDE RETREAT 50-1 – Beaten 32 lengths in 6th behind Sinister Minister last time out, before that he ran a creditable 2nd in the Grade 2 Lanes End at Turfway. Fired a bullet workout last week with a fastest of twenty two 59 seconds over 5 furlongs.
16.CAUSE TO BELIEVE 50-1 – Need to believe in miracles to see him winning. Has to turn around a 10 length beating by Sweetnorthensaint to have any chance.
17.LAWYER RON 4-1 – One of the favourites but I just can’t see him winning. He may have won his last 6 races but jockey John McKee is a tiny fella (even for a jockey) & just can’t hold this horse. He will be fighting (& winning) for his head in the early stages & will be punch drunk & out on his feet turning for home. His last race was won in the slowest time, by 3 seconds, compared to the other main contenders.
18.BROTHER DEREK 3-1 – The favourite for the race & rightly so. Winner of 6 of his 8 lifetime starts, he made all to beat Point Determined & A.P.Warrior in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last month. The problem I have with this horse is that this is by far the biggest field he has encountered (last few races have only had 6 or 7 runners) & he is drawn out in the car park (their number is also their draw position). I just can’t see how he going to get to the lead from there & cope with all the hustle & bustle around him. However, if he does cope, he is easily good enough to win.
19.STORM TREASURE 50-1 – Ran a personal best to finish 13 lengths behind Sinister Minister at odds of 65-1 last time out. Has been working well since but hard to see how he will figure tonight.
20.FLASHY BULL 50-1 – Has the same sire, same jockey & about as much chance as last year’s shock winner, Giacomo. Can’t see lightening striking twice!
Hope this helps a bit & for the record I’ve backed 6 horses:
Barbaro, who I think has an outstanding chance of winning the Derby.
Sharp Humor who I think is the best of the runners likely to be making the early running
Point Determined – could be the best finisher in the field if they go too quick up front.
Sweetnorthensaint – I was impressed with his Illinois Derby win & I’m hoping he will be good enough to just sit off the early pace & quicken up to win.
Jazil – just in case they go a suicidal pace up front he will be plodding on & could nick it.
Steppenwolfer – had to have a fiver on this outsider as, sad I know, I had a dream about the entire race – from gate to wire - & a grey horse carrying purple colours won the Derby. This is a grey horse carrying purple colours!
Now for the spam
Racing World will be on air from 6pm on Sky Digital Channel 433 & Racing UK will be joining the programme from 9pm to enable cable viewers to see the race as well. Post time for the Derby is 11:04pm.
Good luck all
Steve
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