Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[cheapwetsuit]

The 2014 Tour Down Under (TDU) gets under way this weekend, and the favourite to win it all is Simon Gerrans, the newly-crowned Australian national champion. In 2012 he finished top of the podium, and in 2013, it was only thanks to a 20-man pile-up on the 2nd stage that he didn't repeat. Just to prove the point, he managed to recover by winning the crucial 5th stage that finished on Old Willunga Hill. Second that day? Tom-Jelte Slagter (the overall winner). Third? Javier Moreno (second overall).

It is fair to say that Gerrans is the overwhelming favourite to win the TDU. Best odds of 7/2 are far from attractive, however, and therefore he is best left alone.

It is also fair to say that this year's Stage 5 finish on Old Willunga Hill will more than likely determine the winner. To succeed at the TDU, you need to be both a good sprinter (to take advantage of the many time bonuses) and a decent climber. Not a steady, metronomic climber, mind, but rather a punchy, erratic, attacking one. It's an odd combination, but if I had to pick one cyclist that fits the mould, it's Phillipe Gilbert. Unfortunately, he's not taking part this year.

Looking at the field, Cadel Evans (6/1), is an unknown quantity. He had a good performance in the Ozzie national champs (2nd), and is undoubtedly in good nick. But there is always the chance that he is using this race as preparation for the Giro, and leaving the real racing to his lieutenant, Ben Hermans (33/1). Both fit the profile of a likely champion, with a good turn of speed, both on the flats and the steeps.

Richie Porte (13/2), Geraint Thomas (10/1), and Rohan Dennis (14/1), in my mind, don't have the required skill set when it comes to the sprints, and should miss out.

Javier Moreno (16/1) came really close to winning last year, and was 8th the year before, so I would not put anyone off backing him to do the business in 2014. The only problem is that I just do not find his odds very attractive ... especially not when compared to those of his team-mate at Movistar ... JOSE JOAQUIN ROJAS (or JJ for short). He is trading at 100/1 @ Spoilsports (1/5 odds 1-2-3) or 80/1 @ Ladjokes (1/4 odds 1-2-3).

JJ is a year younger than Moreno, and is a better sprinter to boot. He won't be stealing any stage victories from Greipel, Kittel, Viviani and co, but he might nick a couple of seconds at the intermediate sprints. He is also a decent climber (as good as Moreno), and could arguably have achieved more at the TDU last year (14th), if he wasn't riding as a domestique. For five times the price of his team-mate, you essentially get the same cyclist. The only risk is that I'm not sure who'll get the nod this year. For me, it's worth a fiver each-way to find out.

And if you believe in the natural order of things, the following is interesting (other than that Movistar likes podiums):
2013   Moreno (MOV) 2nd   Rojas (MOV) 14th
2012   Valverde (MOV) 2nd   Moreno (MOV) 8th
2010   Sanchez (Caisse D'Epargne (old Movistar) 2nd   Valverde (CDE) 19th
2009   Rojas (CDE) 3rd      Sanchez (CDE) 15th
2008   Rojas (CDE) 3rd      Sanchez (CDE) 8th
Time to complete the cycle, so to speak.

PS. I wouldn't put anyone off backing a JJ Rojas / JJ Henry (at the Humana Challenge) e/w double. I love these types of ice-cream bets.

PPS. There is another name I'd like to throw into the hat, but he hasn't been priced up yet. tbc...

[Tonji]

Tremendous write up cws. Keep em coming, as I said in TfT, other commitments are keeping spare time at a premium at the moment.

I notice a few season bets that look interesting, but will need some digging to see if numbers look to stack up. I'll run it by you & the thread laters.

[BigAdz]

Nice one CWS.

Expect to see a price stampede!

[Omm]

Hi CWS

Couple of questions:

Why is Gripel 200-1? and is he not in the running for a third title? Also his team mate is as low as 16-1 and was as high as 150-1 Jurgen Roelandts, I was reading he may be given a free rain. Whats your thoughts on these 2?

[Tonji]

Hi CWS

Couple of questions:

Why is Gripel 200-1? and is he not in the running for a third title? Also his team mate is as low as 16-1 and was as high as 150-1 Jurgen Roelandts, I was reading he may be given a free rain. Whats your thoughts on these 2?

Greipel is a fat boy sprinter, so a big favourite for the sprint stages, but for the overall 200/1 is standard.

cws will know more current form, but Roelandts is a General Classification rider whose form tends to peak in the races ahead of the Tour. Bookies probably unsure on what to price him at.

[Omm]

Hi CWS

Couple of questions:

Why is Gripel 200-1? and is he not in the running for a third title? Also his team mate is as low as 16-1 and was as high as 150-1 Jurgen Roelandts, I was reading he may be given a free rain. Whats your thoughts on these 2?

Greipel is a fat boy sprinter, so a big favourite for the sprint stages, but for the overall 200/1 is standard.

cws will know more current form, but Roelandts is a General Classification rider whose form tends to peak in the races ahead of the Tour. Bookies probably unsure on what to price him at.

was doing some more reading and came across this http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/greipel_i_will_never_win_the_tour_down_under_again/

so that explains alot, Im not really up on knowledge of cycling but it seems strange to me that a team would have a guy leading it who says he cant win? He does speak about Hansen though?

[Tonji]

Hi CWS

Couple of questions:

Why is Gripel 200-1? and is he not in the running for a third title? Also his team mate is as low as 16-1 and was as high as 150-1 Jurgen Roelandts, I was reading he may be given a free rain. Whats your thoughts on these 2?

Greipel is a fat boy sprinter, so a big favourite for the sprint stages, but for the overall 200/1 is standard.

cws will know more current form, but Roelandts is a General Classification rider whose form tends to peak in the races ahead of the Tour. Bookies probably unsure on what to price him at.

was doing some more reading and came across this http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/greipel_i_will_never_win_the_tour_down_under_again/

so that explains alot, Im not really up on knowledge of cycling but it seems strange to me that a team would have a guy leading it who says he cant win? He does speak about Hansen though?

There are few World Tour stage races a sprinter can realistically expect to win the GC. The sprinters season is all about the number of stage wins & winning UCI points for the team. One of the many layers of competition in Cycling. Some excellent young sprinters emerging to challenge the likes of Cavendish & Greipel, Kittel the best of them.

[vegaslover]

Hi CWS

Couple of questions:

Why is Gripel 200-1? and is he not in the running for a third title? Also his team mate is as low as 16-1 and was as high as 150-1 Jurgen Roelandts, I was reading he may be given a free rain. Whats your thoughts on these 2?

Greipel is a fat boy sprinter, so a big favourite for the sprint stages, but for the overall 200/1 is standard.

cws will know more current form, but Roelandts is a General Classification rider whose form tends to peak in the races ahead of the Tour. Bookies probably unsure on what to price him at.

was doing some more reading and came across this http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/greipel_i_will_never_win_the_tour_down_under_again/

so that explains alot, Im not really up on knowledge of cycling but it seems strange to me that a team would have a guy leading it who says he cant win? He does speak about Hansen though?

There are few World Tour stage races a sprinter can realistically expect to win the GC. The sprinters season is all about the number of stage wins & winning UCI points for the team. One of the many layers of competition in Cycling. Some excellent young sprinters emerging to challenge the likes of Cavendish & Greipel, Kittel the best of them.

As Tonji explains above, team leaders are not just contenders to win tours, but win sprints/points.

The 'skinny' riders ala Froome, Contador etc go for the GC ( general classification or overall time leader). Because they are so light they can up hills much faster and gain a lot of time.

The 'fat' boys ala Cavendish, Griepel etc go for the stage wins and the mini sprints during a stage. They carry more muscle and weight, which is good for fast sprinting in short bursts, bad for long uphill climbs.

It is very difficult to have a team for both so you go for one or the other. Teams love winning stages as it gets a lot of media coverage for the sponsors, who pay to run the team.

That is why you see Cav especially, but others too, pull out their top at the finish, allowing the logos to be clear for the photos

[Omm]

Hi CWS

Couple of questions:

Why is Gripel 200-1? and is he not in the running for a third title? Also his team mate is as low as 16-1 and was as high as 150-1 Jurgen Roelandts, I was reading he may be given a free rain. Whats your thoughts on these 2?

Greipel is a fat boy sprinter, so a big favourite for the sprint stages, but for the overall 200/1 is standard.

cws will know more current form, but Roelandts is a General Classification rider whose form tends to peak in the races ahead of the Tour. Bookies probably unsure on what to price him at.

was doing some more reading and came across this http://www.cyclingquotes.com/news/greipel_i_will_never_win_the_tour_down_under_again/

so that explains alot, Im not really up on knowledge of cycling but it seems strange to me that a team would have a guy leading it who says he cant win? He does speak about Hansen though?

There are few World Tour stage races a sprinter can realistically expect to win the GC. The sprinters season is all about the number of stage wins & winning UCI points for the team. One of the many layers of competition in Cycling. Some excellent young sprinters emerging to challenge the likes of Cavendish & Greipel, Kittel the best of them.

As Tonji explains above, team leaders are not just contenders to win tours, but win sprints/points.

The 'skinny' riders ala Froome, Contador etc go for the GC ( general classification or overall time leader). Because they are so light they can up hills much faster and gain a lot of time.

The 'fat' boys ala Cavendish, Griepel etc go for the stage wins and the mini sprints during a stage. They carry more muscle and weight, which is good for fast sprinting in short bursts, bad for long uphill climbs.

It is very difficult to have a team for both so you go for one or the other. Teams love winning stages as it gets a lot of media coverage for the sponsors, who pay to run the team.

That is why you see Cav especially, but others too, pull out their top at the finish, allowing the logos to be clear for the photos

Thanks for taking the time to explain guys, always been interested in cycling, now I understand it that bit better.

[Tonji]

JJ Rojas cut to 33/1 on PP, should have got on earlier 

[cheapwetsuit]

JJ Rojas cut to 33/1 on PP, should have got on earlier 

  BigAdz moves markets.

[vegaslover]

JJ Rojas cut to 33/1 on PP, should have got on earlier 

Damn

Any season long prospects we can look out for? I have been too absorbed in the cricket past couple of months

[BigAdz]

JJ Rojas cut to 33/1 on PP, should have got on earlier 

  BigAdz moves markets.

These days its Mrs Adz that moves markets

[Tonji]

JJ Rojas cut to 33/1 on PP, should have got on earlier  

Damn

Any season long prospects we can look out for? I have been too absorbed in the cricket past couple of months

With the retirement of some of the Armstrong era riders, there should be more opportunities for emerging younger talents.

In the one day Classics, watch out for Diego Ullisi.

Sure to be many others...

[Omm]

JJ Rojas cut to 33/1 on PP, should have got on earlier 

Damn

Any season long prospects we can look out for? I have been too absorbed in the cricket past couple of months

Jj Rojas now on b365@ 125-1 paying 1/2/3/4 @ 1/3