Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Thinking back to the Kane vs Vardy for top English goal scorer bet.
It was a bet because in an established market, Vardy and Kane were the same odds for top goalscorer yet Kane was bigger odds in the match bet.

In an established market, Leicester are, excluding the Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool, favourites to finish top 4/win the league, by a good amount in both situations.

Why is it then that they are shorter in the odds than some of the other teams such as West Ham, Everton, Southampton, to be relegated
Same thing as the vardy vs kane bet? What's the bet/is there a bet

[Doobs]

Thinking back to the Kane vs Vardy for top English goal scorer bet.
It was a bet because in an established market, Vardy and Kane were the same odds for top goalscorer yet Kane was bigger odds in the match bet.

In an established market, Leicester are, excluding the Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool, favourites to finish top 4/win the league, by a good amount in both situations.

Why is it then that they are shorter in the odds than some of the other teams such as West Ham, Everton, Southampton, to be relegated
Same thing as the vardy vs kane bet? What's the bet/is there a bet

It isn't the same thing, the Kane/Vardy bets were much closer together. 

These bets on Leicester reflect the perceived volatility in their finishing position.  I can imagine them keeping their team and finishing top 4 quite easily, or losing their 3 best players and struggling against relegation.   Much harder to see why Southampton/West Ham would be as volatile.

[arbboy]

Thinking back to the Kane vs Vardy for top English goal scorer bet.
It was a bet because in an established market, Vardy and Kane were the same odds for top goalscorer yet Kane was bigger odds in the match bet.

In an established market, Leicester are, excluding the Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool, favourites to finish top 4/win the league, by a good amount in both situations.

Why is it then that they are shorter in the odds than some of the other teams such as West Ham, Everton, Southampton, to be relegated
Same thing as the vardy vs kane bet? What's the bet/is there a bet

It isn't the same thing, the Kane/Vardy bets were much closer together.  

These bets on Leicester reflect the perceived volatility in their finishing position.  I can imagine them keeping their team and finishing top 4 quite easily, or losing their 3 best players and struggling against relegation.   Much harder to see why Southampton/West Ham would be as volatile.

Doobs got it spot on as usual.  Very tough to price up Leicester in a lot of the sub markets.   I can't help thinking they are going to be well over priced to finish in the bottom half based on the outright/top 4 prices.  If they lose Vardy and a couple of others surely they are no better than Stoke on paper?  Maybe even worse?  Add in the 'second season' issue of clubs scouting them much much closer/being a prize scalp as champions etc etc.  What price would people be Leicester top half/bottom half to 100%?   I am thinking firms will go up 1/3 3/1 roughly but i think 3/1 bottom half is just too big given the said volatility of the team.

Surely there will be a domino effect if Vardy goes first other players won't feel as bad about feeling and lose the PR of the fans long term as they were not the first player to leave.   The unique team spirit of the title winning team will be gone and whoever they replace these players with that can't be recreated which was surely a big factor in their success last year?

[Tal]

quiz time

name the sportsperson

Click to see full-size image.

Johanna Konta?

[TightEnd]

Thinking back to the Kane vs Vardy for top English goal scorer bet.
It was a bet because in an established market, Vardy and Kane were the same odds for top goalscorer yet Kane was bigger odds in the match bet.

In an established market, Leicester are, excluding the Manchester clubs, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool, favourites to finish top 4/win the league, by a good amount in both situations.

Why is it then that they are shorter in the odds than some of the other teams such as West Ham, Everton, Southampton, to be relegated
Same thing as the vardy vs kane bet? What's the bet/is there a bet

It isn't the same thing, the Kane/Vardy bets were much closer together.  

These bets on Leicester reflect the perceived volatility in their finishing position.  I can imagine them keeping their team and finishing top 4 quite easily, or losing their 3 best players and struggling against relegation.   Much harder to see why Southampton/West Ham would be as volatile.

Doobs got it spot on as usual.  Very tough to price up Leicester in a lot of the sub markets.   I can't help thinking they are going to be well over priced to finish in the bottom half based on the outright/top 4 prices.  If they lose Vardy and a couple of others surely they are no better than Stoke on paper?  Maybe even worse?  Add in the 'second season' issue of clubs scouting them much much closer/being a prize scalp as champions etc etc.  What price would people be Leicester top half/bottom half to 100%?   I am thinking firms will go up 1/3 3/1 roughly but i think 3/1 bottom half is just too big given the said volatility of the team.

Surely there will be a domino effect if Vardy goes first other players won't feel as bad about feeling and lose the PR of the fans long term as they were not the first player to leave.   The unique team spirit of the title winning team will be gone and whoever they replace these players with that can't be recreated which was surely a big factor in their success last year?

if vardy stays, which is now an odds on shot, it can easily reinforce again. Lot of uncertainty around all summer for sure and not easy to call. Looking at the names linked with coming in I would be mildly optimistic but they need to gel of course

[TightEnd]

Konta is correct. Going to be the first seeded British lady for 35 years at Wimbledon this year

[Chompy]

SDS suspended 9-12 June.

[TightEnd]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

[arbboy]

How much have Leics upped Vardy's contract then? £100k a week? more?  If the gap isn't that big then i can see him staying at Leics.  He isn't going to move to London and get the same sort of house he has in Melton for less than £8m is he?

[TightEnd]

I don't know the figure. But they have an improved contract on the table. I do know that vardys New V9 academy is an issue. Leicester have pumped money into that, alongside Nike, with vardys name on it. Anyway, it's got to be a closer decision for him than everyone had thought otherwise he would have gone before heading to france

[sonour]

SDS suspended 9-12 June.

Chompy,

At what price will you consider laying SDS please ? I guess we need to consider the chance of injury.

Thank you

[TheDazzler]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

I mentioned this last week when it looked like the Koeman deal was imminent. They are supposedly after the Seville DOF too. They apparently have nett £150m to spend and they are curently attempting to tie down their prize assests (Barkley/Stones not sure about Lukaku?).
Their odds for winning the league have dropped slightly from 200/1 to 150/1, odds of top 4 dropped from 16/1 to 14/1. There may be still some value in this as these odds are only going to go one way imo.

[arbboy]

What do we think of Everton De-martinezed with bucketloads to spend and a renowned talent spotter in place as manager?  Quick turnaround? Might take a while? Keep lukaku and stones or lose them? Presumably defending better plus new recruits would mean they kick up the league in short order?

I mentioned this last week when it looked like the Koeman deal was imminent. They are supposedly after the Seville DOF too. They apparently have nett £150m to spend and they are curently attempting to tie down their prize assests (Barkley/Stones not sure about Lukaku?).
Their odds for winning the league have dropped slightly from 200/1 to 150/1, odds of top 4 dropped from 16/1 to 14/1. There may be still some value in this as these odds are only going to go one way imo.

They were huge under achievers last season given their playing squad.  Just another reason why Leics are going to find it so tough to get close to repeating along with West Ham playing in front of 60k fans every week at home.  Going to be so competitive next season.   I thought this at the start of last year and because of it literally backing draws in every game blind as i think they are slightly over priced (pretty sure around 29% of EPL games were draws last season).  Given how much tighter than league looks next season i think it could be a profitable strategy to grind out a couple of % roi over a big sample of bets with relatively low risk.

[Chompy]

SDS suspended 9-12 June.

Chompy,

At what price will you consider laying SDS please ? I guess we need to consider the chance of injury.

Thank you

I wouldn't tbh. The three behind us will close the gap this week and Ryan could even join/head us at Royal Ascot, but I wouldn't be overly worried. A four-day break now could help SDS in the long run.

[DungBeetle]

I don't know the figure. But they have an improved contract on the table. I do know that vardys New V9 academy is an issue. Leicester have pumped money into that, alongside Nike, with vardys name on it. Anyway, it's got to be a closer decision for him than everyone had thought otherwise he would have gone before heading to france

Do you think Leicester are going to put an offer for Deeney in Tighty as I've heard Ranieri is keen?  Assume it isn't dependant on Vardy as they aren't like for like replacements.