Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

No-one else is going to start this thread, so I'm going to start it myself.

Our hero is teetering on the brink of getting back into sports gambling, but is resisting because he reckons, deep down, he's a mug punter.

So I reckon with all the good sports betting punters (and Boldie too) on here, we can tun Tiikay from ice cream to shark.

The idea is for him to start with a bank of £1000, and for people to regular posters to chip in with selections with a maximum stake of 5% of his current bank.

No more than one selection per poster per week I think and make a post with a cogent argument as to why the bet should be made.

I guess I'll start.

£40 Michel Hazanavicus Best Director Oscar @ 5/8 bwin This really is a no-brainer bet. The Artist is a stunning piece of work, and has received hugely positive reviews and is definitely the sort of movie which will appeal to the Academy. Instead of backing it to win Best Picture at a prohibitive 3/10, take the bigger odds about the director triumphing. 8 of the last 9 Best Picture winners have also scooped the Best Director award. The major danger is Scorsese obviously. But he won his Oscar (finally) in 2007 with The Departed, and from the consensus reviews I have read, Hugo is not another Godfather. And the 3 d aspect is unlikely to appeal to traditionalists.

I think Hazanavicus will be considerably shorter come Oscars night and is a great bet at 5/8




Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty


I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way



EDIT - The Freddy Spready Link is.......


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=24

[Karabiner]

That might be a little too "arty" for our hero who is very highly principled about such matters.

[The Camel]

That might be a little too "arty" for our hero who is very highly principled about such matters.

Value is value.

I'd lower myself to beat on I'm a Celeb or CBB if the bet is good enough.

[Karabiner]

That might be a little too "arty" for our hero who is very highly principled about such matters.

Value is value.

I'd lower myself to beat on I'm a Celeb or CBB if the bet is good enough.

Indeed so would I and I absolutely love this idea.

[tikay]

This goes wholly against my lifelong punting habit of never taking notice of tips.

......oh dammit, OK, you got me, subject to sorting out some details. Don't tell Tom though, he'll sigh, & give me the silent treatment.

I note Camel has given the first selection, but I thought the idea was he just decided which of the other experts tips would be used?

Also, are the other experts happy to do this, to provide ther occasoinal selection?

I don't have accounts with any Bookies, except, of course, next door. Am I to place all the bets with them? If so, the prices will often (usually?) vary.

I am not able, really, to open accounts with different bookies, or work the exchanges or stuff, so would it be better if I sent the £1,000 to Keith, or someone, for example, & asked them to do the punting for me? Or just send the "tipster" the cash, by Bank TX, for each individual wager? 

Detail, detail, detail.....

[tikay]

That might be a little too "arty" for our hero who is very highly principled about such matters.

Not wrong, Ralph, but it is not relevant in this case, & it would not bother me. Not sure I'd stoop as low as Celeb BB though, that's really scraping the cultural barrel, & I have my image, integrity, & credibility to protect.

[tikay]

As an example of the problem, this.....

£40 Michel Hazanavicus Best Director Oscar @ 5/8 bwin

I do not have a Bwin account, & Sky bet are only advertising, as far as I can see, Scorsese to win best Director @ 9/4.

[Karabiner]

I'm sure you told me that you had a betfair account that you'd never used.

I've showed you how it works at least twice and it's hardly nuclear physics.

[tikay]

I'm sure you told me that you had a betfair account that you'd never used.

I've showed you how it works at least twice and it's hardly nuclear physics.

Yes, I have, & no, I've never used it. Not exactly.

[scotty2hatty]

This could be very good, Tikay going against his tip taking beliefs. Camel moderating the tips could be interesting.

[redarmi]

Can the selection be a multiple bet that will educate our hero on the importance place value and each way betting being a bit like position in poker?.....very powerful when used correctly.

If so I would like to suggest the following e/w Lucky 15 on todays racing:

325 Warwick Romulaid S'artaix 7/2
535 Kempton Ashdown Boy SP
735 Kempton Cut The Cackle 7/2
515 Meydan Rajsaman 6/1

Prices taken from the, ahem, esteemed Skybet and stake to be 1 unit e/w lucky 15

[tikay]

Can the selection be a multiple bet that will educate our hero on the importance place value and each way betting being a bit like position in poker?.....very powerful when used correctly.

If so I would like to suggest the following e/w Lucky 15 on todays racing:

325 Warwick Romulaid S'artaix 7/2
535 Kempton Ashdown Boy SP
735 Kempton Cut The Cackle 7/2
515 Meydan Rajsaman 6/1

Prices taken from the, ahem, esteemed Skybet and stake to be 1 unit e/w lucky 15

Umm, wtf is a "Lucky 15"?

4 horses used to be a yankee (11 bets, being 6 x dubs, 4 x trebs, & 1 x acca), presumably a "Lucky 15" (yuk) is a yankee + 4 singles?

You are not REALLY gonna make me start punting trebles & accas, surely to God? The bookies will love me!

I think, also (grasping at straws) that Camel has to approve all bets first, too.



Oh, & thank you.

[tikay]

Unusual juxtaposition of words here....

esteemed Skybet.....

Let's not trouble Mr Hawkins with his view on that.

[millidonk]

I didn't expect a lucky 15 to ever appear ott. thought they were only for mugs like me!?

[Dubai]

Be careful Tikay don't go mad on stakes, I got offered £1.04 lucky 15 with sky, so can only assume they been filled in!