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Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
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Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 13513709 times)
cheapwetsuit
Full Member
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Posts: 267
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72315 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:08:25 AM »
I've got a bet I really like, but it's a bit of a (actually a ma
hoo
ssive) banzai. I'd suggest just a fiver on the nose, but if you're feeling really nitty (ie. wasteful), you could make it each-way. Just bear in mind that this is the sort of bet where you stick the fiver on and forget about it. Chances are it's not coming back.
In the Volta a Catalunya at the moment, things are going according to plan, with the top 4 favourites (being the top 4 from the 2013 Tour de France) occupying the top 4 spots. Pretty boring from a gambling man's point of view. With betting on the general classification (GC) therefore being a waste of time, I've been looking at candidates for a potential upset in today's queen stage.
Introducing
Tomasz Marczynski
from Poland. With even more Scrabble points to his name than Benat Intxausti, he rides for CCC-Polsat, a surprise wildcard inclusion in this year's Volta. Currently, he is in joint-6th place in the King of the Mountains (KOM) competition with 16 points (30 points behind the leader Jack Bobridge), having struck out with the breakaway on Stage 2. He is a very experienced climber as evidenced by his 1st place KOM finishes in both the 2012 and 2013 Tours of Poland. Add to this his 13th overall finish in the 2012 Vuelta a Espana, and you begin to see why his finishing 7:18 behind Rodriguez in yesterday's mountainous Stage 3 is a good sign (rather than an indication of bad climbing form). The motivation to do well is also there as evidenced by what he had to say after Tuesday's success:
Today's stage was good. If you are already on the attack, it's worth to have something to fight for. I managed to win the mountain sprints and collect some points for the mountains classification. I must admit that I would still try to escape in other stages to fight for the KOM jersey. Until then I will relax. Tomorrow I will consider what to do next.
So I'm assuming that yesterday was more of a rest day for Marczynski, with the advantage of ceding some time to the leaders, and the disadvantage of ceding some points to Bobridge, Zeits and Molard. Although there is the counter-argument that tomorrow they'll have tired legs, and our man will be rested. We'll have to wait and see.
On today's queen stage, there are five categorised climbs with a total of 88 KOM points up for grabs. This includes the 30 points on offer at the summit finish, which I'm not assuming Marczynski will take ... yet! Another way of putting this is that there are realistically 58 points to be had before the peloton closes in on a breakaway, and fights for finish line honours. So more than enough to make up the 30-point deficit on Bobridge. However, in order to be allowed to make the breakaway (which will hoover up the points), Marczynski has to convince the peloton that he is no threat to the overall classification. By losing more than 7 minutes yesterday, he has done this in spades ... nice poker reference there!
Now this where the banzai comes in:
Assuming Marczynski indeed makes the breakaway, and as predicted finishes first over the Collada de Tosses (16), the Alt de Canes (10), the Alt de Oix (16), and the Alt de Rocabruna (16) ... what then? He will be sitting on 74 points with the finish line still a very difficult 36km away in Vallter 2000. CCC-Polsat are a small cycling team on a very small budget. A mountains jersey will be more than enough reward for them. But what if there is a 10min+ gap to the peloton? What if they had the chance to nick a stage in a prestigious European race? I'm guessing they would go for it. And in Tomasz Marczynski they have the right weapon to attack the final climb, and secure victory.
B3e6t5 is quoting odds of 125/1 and Podeypawdr is currently a ma
hoo
ssive
250/1
. Definitely worth a small gamble.
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scotty2hatty
Gamesmaster
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Posts: 9208
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72316 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:26:17 AM »
That was great
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horseplayer
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Posts: 10601
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72317 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:28:23 AM »
Post of the Year winner
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tikay
Administrator
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72318 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:32:48 AM »
Wonderful Post by Wetty.
Sadly, 365 would not lay me a penny. PP allowed me a measly £0.41p ew.
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typhoon13
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Posts: 3299
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72319 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:35:47 AM »
Quote from: horseplayer on March 27, 2014, 10:28:23 AM
Post of the Year winner
+1 Classy
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horseplayer
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Posts: 10601
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72320 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:41:57 AM »
the irish firm cut already under sheer weight of 50p each way bets
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TightEnd
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72321 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:43:59 AM »
Volta a Catalunya Stage 4 (Alp - Vallter 2000 (Setcases)
27-03-2014 11:10
Stage Betting
Each Way Odds: 1/4 places 1,2,3
T Marczynski @ 125/1
£5 e/w with me tikay.
250/1 had gone before I got there
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
Marky147
Hero Member
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Posts: 22798
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72322 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:44:59 AM »
Quote from: tikay on March 27, 2014, 10:32:48 AM
Wonderful Post by Wetty.
Sadly, 365 would not lay me a penny. PP allowed me a measly £0.41p ew.
I could only get £1.25 with PP, and a fiver with the other mob, however, this could be the perfect time to open an account with our Premier League Darts sponsors, and help yourself to some of their 200/1
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Burning $$$ in Vegas 2021
http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=68840.0
Tal
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 24352
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72323 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:45:06 AM »
Betting suspended with PP
edit:
Back up at 125/1. Not sure why they suspended it, then.
«
Last Edit: March 27, 2014, 10:47:39 AM by Tal
»
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"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
cheapwetsuit
Full Member
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Posts: 267
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72324 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:46:11 AM »
Thanks for all the kind words. I'm just praying that he makes the breakaway so that I don't look a complete fool. Otherwise it'll be the shortest sweat in the history of Fred.
I promise to keep posting updates.
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Karabiner
Hero Member
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Posts: 22745
James Webb Telescope
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72325 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:48:25 AM »
Excellent write-up MrSuit although I do hope you'll forgive me for pointing out that doing something "in spades" is actually an old gin-rummy term.
When playing gin-rummy each player is dealt ten cards and then one card is turned up, if that card is a spade then the points won or lost in that hand count double, hence the expression.
As you were..
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
Tonji
They got a name for all the winners in the world. I want a name when I lose.
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Posts: 5586
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72326 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:49:16 AM »
£1.25 on Tomasz
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http://www.photonet.org.uk/
They got a name for all the winners in the world. I want a name when I lose.
Matt.NFFC.
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Posts: 1025
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72327 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:52:26 AM »
Quote from: JoeBeevers on March 26, 2014, 10:10:43 AM
Quote from: Matt.NFFC. on March 25, 2014, 10:57:19 PM
Be quick with this IMO....
Ipswich to beat Forest on Saturday @13/10 is absolutely huge.
We are in complete disarray, our season is shot to pieces, no manager, 8 first teamers out injured, and our last half decent centre half picked up a yellow card tonight and is banned for Saturday.
Honestly, if we win another game this season I will be surprised.
Ipswich on a push for play-offs...need I go on.
Just checked odds checker and expected 5/6 or thereabouts.
GO GO GO.....
2.41 Pinnacle is stand out and I can't see it being there long.
Still not interested team?
Stuart Pearce has also turned us down now ffs.
I'm off down to the ground to get on telly fk it
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TightEnd
Administrator
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72328 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:57:51 AM »
Quote from: Matt.NFFC. on March 27, 2014, 10:52:26 AM
Still not interested team?
don't think its a case of that. The Boss has been unavailable much of the week. On balance that has probably saved money!
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My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #72329 on:
March 27, 2014, 10:59:05 AM »
Meanwhile with South Africa 120-6 after 16, our Sri Lanka and New Zealand coupons are cheering on the Netherlands here!
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
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