Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

Not sure Defoe can win this but you will be able to squeeze plenty of juice out of the 16/1 laying it shorter at some stage.  He has been backed for peanuts at 4/1 already on bf.  His little buddy fighting cancer is on his last legs and twitter has gone pretty crazy about him winning this last few days.

Surely doesn't get nominated?

And Defoe the love rat is now a hero? Incred scenes really.

It really is but i don't get the impression this has ever been a PR stunt.  I don't think Defoe cares that much what the public thinks about him and his previous cheating habits and his advertising for a £60k a year PA in the past among other things.  He is incredibly clean living life time tee total athlete who is reaping the rewards of an extended career now in his mid 30's when Rooney is fucked just past 30.   Just shows that your lifestyle reaps what you sow over the early years of your career.  Fair bit been done around the 8-9/1 mark on betfair so hopefully a few who could get on had a quick buy and sell trade to nick a few quid.  This looks like one of those where in December you will say 'fuck me how was Defoe ever done at 4/1 for SPOTY' after Murray has won Wimbledon and the US open, Heather Watson or Konta have won the women's and AJ has knocked someone else out into next week in November and the lions shit up tomorrow!

Joe Root not worth an interest at 100/1 if he went on to score 300 today on his first test as captain?  I don't think he has a hope in hell of winning but it says a lot how far down cricket is considered nowadays as a sport in the mainstream with there being zero coverage on normal tv.  Nappy factor for Root as well having recently just had his first child, a son as well.  Honeymoon period in the job playing a home series.  Seems big to me but probably can't win.  Sounds stupid but true.

[ripple11]

https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner

Not sure Defoe can win this but you will be able to squeeze plenty of juice out of the 16/1 laying it shorter at some stage.  He has been backed for peanuts at 4/1 already on bf.  His little buddy fighting cancer is on his last legs and twitter has gone pretty crazy about him winning this last few days.

Surely doesn't get nominated?

And Defoe the love rat is now a hero? Incred scenes really.

It really is but i don't get the impression this has ever been a PR stunt.  I don't think Defoe cares that much what the public thinks about him and his previous cheating habits and his advertising for a £60k a year PA in the past among other things.  He is incredibly clean living life time tee total athlete who is reaping the rewards of an extended career now in his mid 30's when Rooney is fucked just past 30.   Just shows that your lifestyle reaps what you sow over the early years of your career.  Fair bit been done around the 8-9/1 mark on betfair so hopefully a few who could get on had a quick buy and sell trade to nick a few quid.  This looks like one of those where in December you will say 'fuck me how was Defoe ever done at 4/1 for SPOTY' after Murray has won Wimbledon and the US open, Heather Watson or Konta have won the women's and AJ has knocked someone else out into next week in November and the lions shit up tomorrow!

Joe Root not worth an interest at 100/1 if he went on to score 300 today on his first test as captain?  I don't think he has a hope in hell of winning but it says a lot how far down cricket is considered nowadays as a sport in the mainstream with there being zero coverage on normal tv.  Nappy factor for Root as well having recently just had his first child, a son as well.  Honeymoon period in the job playing a home series.  Seems big to me but probably can't win.  Sounds stupid but true.

The power of social media being what it is nowadays....think he wins.

 As Chompy says...can't see him getting nominated.

[bergeroo]

Thanks for the T20 write up on BE Tighty. Got on Worcester to win the North Group at 16/1

[Doobs]

Konta won pretty easily.  Starts to get tougher, but shouldn't have much to fear.  Be good to meet Azarenka if she gets through.  She looked pretty fragile against Watson earlier.

[arbboy]

Konta won pretty easily.  Starts to get tougher, but shouldn't have much to fear.  Be good to meet Azarenka if she gets through.  She looked pretty fragile against Watson earlier.

Don't think i have ever seen a tennis event in my life where the betting market looks like the grand national in 16 years in the game.   It is incredible.  I don't follow women's tennis at all but surely Konta is a lay at the prices?  I am huge green on Coco.  If she wins you won't hear from me for a month!

[Doobs]

Konta won pretty easily.  Starts to get tougher, but shouldn't have much to fear.  Be good to meet Azarenka if she gets through.  She looked pretty fragile against Watson earlier.

Don't think i have ever seen a tennis event in my life where the betting market looks like the grand national in 16 years in the game.   It is incredible.  I don't follow women's tennis at all but surely Konta is a lay at the prices?  I am huge green on Coco.  If she wins you won't hear from me for a month!

I don't think there is anybody left in the draw who should be shorter than Konta.  There is pretty much zero chance I am laying.

[Karabiner]

I do like the way Ostapenko raises her game when she's in trouble and engages beast-mode.

Doubt any of the remaining ladies is relishing getting her next.

[arbboy]

Konta won pretty easily.  Starts to get tougher, but shouldn't have much to fear.  Be good to meet Azarenka if she gets through.  She looked pretty fragile against Watson earlier.

Don't think i have ever seen a tennis event in my life where the betting market looks like the grand national in 16 years in the game.   It is incredible.  I don't follow women's tennis at all but surely Konta is a lay at the prices?  I am huge green on Coco.  If she wins you won't hear from me for a month!

I don't think there is anybody left in the draw who should be shorter than Konta.  There is pretty much zero chance I am laying.

I have no idea how easy her draw is moving forward.  But i doubt she is the best grass court player left in the draw given her previous on grass.

[TightEnd]

the Wimbledon womens draw

We have konta and Rybarikova who plays shortly

this is how it is shaping up

top quarter

Kerber seeded to play Muguruza
Radwanska seeded to play Kuznetsova

second quarter

rybarikova has no seeds until the quarters when she would play, if she wins two games the winner of ...
wozniacki seeded to play vanderweghe

--

bottom half of the draw is a round ahead

third quarter

konjuh v venus
ostapenko v svitolina

fourth quarter

Konta v Garcia
Halep v Azarenka


and here is the market https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

ignoring any suggestions of hedging etc and just looking at it in its own right now....Konta at 5-1 might be too short here with Halep a game away and trying to find a couple in the field at 10-1+ is the value as we look here today?

who?

[TightEnd]

skybet are paying 5 places in a 10 runner race today

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/sandown/13:50/winner

[Doobs]

the Wimbledon womens draw

We have konta and Rybarikova who plays shortly

this is how it is shaping up

top quarter

Kerber seeded to play Muguruza
Radwanska seeded to play Kuznetsova

second quarter

rybarikova has no seeds until the quarters when she would play, if she wins two games the winner of ...
wozniacki seeded to play vanderweghe

--

bottom half of the draw is a round ahead

third quarter

konjuh v venus
ostapenko v svitolina

fourth quarter

Konta v Garcia
Halep v Azarenka


and here is the market https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/wimbledon/womens/womens-wimbledon/winner

ignoring any suggestions of hedging etc and just looking at it in its own right now....Konta at 5-1 might be too short here with Halep two games away and trying to find a couple in the field at 10-1+ is the value as we look here today?

who?

Why is Konta too short?   You and Arbboy seem to be offering no reasoning. 

 She beat Halep twice recently on the hard courts.  She beat Kerber and Ostapenko on grass a week ago.

She was deserved 3rd favourite.  Williams is pregnant.  The better two players are out, so she should be favourite.  It isn't like she is even that short.  The tournament is wide open, and after today's matches a coue of players could be much closer to her price. 

Trying to look for value because you think an 11/2 chance should be a shade higher, but neither of you seems quite sure why.  She hasn't got much history on grass, but she hadn't much on hard either until two years ago.  Some of them have better history on grass, but I don't think anybody left has better form off the clay courts since the turn of the year.

You say you aren't hedging, but you are.  Why not post up the mens market if you aren't thinking of hedging?   

We have nothing in the F1.  We had no bets on the lions match.  Nothing in the Eclipse.

We have two great bets here, neither is close to breaking the bank, surely we just let them ride for now?  Maybe if they get to the semis and we are facing a potential big win, we can have a look?

[TightEnd]

i didn't post up the mens market because it isn't as interesting. its 16/1 bar the big four, one of which should win as i don't see one of the four not winning it (compared to a week ago where injury, form etc suggested they might not)

the ladies market is wide open 11/2 then 10/1 the field. I think Konta, where we have a great bet,isn't as superior to the likes of kerber, halep, muguruza etc to be half the price of all of them

of course i hope she wins and my question was specifically not about hedging.i was wondering where the value was looking at it today.

[bergeroo]

The market is way way more interesting than the men's market, that's why I guess. From the draw the Kuz/Rad section lacks a favourite but I can't really trust anyone there. I'm tempted to put a few quid on Kazakh wildcard Diyas at 300s plus who could play Rybarikova in the next round, very good grasscourt form, but I haven't watched any of her matches.

The Us Open market is interesting. Some banzai opportunities there!
https://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/us-open/womens/womens-us-open/winner

[arbboy]

I didn't even know we were on Konta so hedging has nothing to do with my comments.  As most people know i don't hedge anyway and wouldn't suggest for fred or others to do so generally.  I just don't understand why she is half the price of every other runner in the field.  It is that straightforward.  People who win grand slams generally don't go to 10-8 final set deciders in the first week against unseeded players imo.

[Doobs]

I didn't even know we were on Konta so hedging has nothing to do with my comments.  As most people know i don't hedge anyway and wouldn't suggest for fred or others to do so generally.  I just don't understand why she is half the price of every other runner in the field.  It is that straightforward.

I have just explained why she is favourite.  Plus she has played an extra match than a fair few of those just behind her, and her next match isn't that bad. Who do you think should be shorter?  Where are your's and tighty's positive selections at the current prices?  If she should be 7/1 rather than 11/2, that gets you 3% off the overound.  Is that enough to make this a great betting opportunity?

I don't think you were thinking of hedging.