blonde poker forum

Last 3 of $50 mtt. Payouts $650, $1100, $2000 ish.

Hero has 46k (D)
Villain has 50k
Shorty has 14k. (BB)


Blinds at 1k/2k

Hero raises 7k w 99. Villain shoves. Considering how short shorty is, is this a clear fold always? Villain appeared better than most, with an idea of how to play and deffo capable of situational moves.

yes...well for me it is...but I'm shit. I'd call this a 450$ fold and get rid of them.....but I would probably hate myself for doing so if I still go out in 3rd.

Why not see it as a $2000 win call.

Call, win, win the tourney.

 ;iagree;

I fold here.

i know its not the question, but anyone consider the push pre on the button here?

takes this sort of tough spot away (of course the big stack can always have a hand behind, but usually won't)

I think its a close call - your equity goes up to about 2/3 of the remaining prize fund (!st and 2nd) and is about 38% if you fold.  I'm sure that you are at least 60% vs his range making it a call with equity of about 40% if you do.

Revised verdict now fold after pokerstoving - he's got to be pushing with a whole lot of crap to get the required 60%.......

Yeah but it is Alex afterall.

Snap call FTW!

I'm - predictably - folding quickly. Easier spots, better spots.

I don't know what i would do until i am in this situation tbh..

Depends on mood, lol.. I was in a similar situation a couple of months or so ago..

3 left, I am 110k, 2nd is 90k, and guy is sitting out on 35k with the blinds at 2.5/5k... Button 2nd CL raises to 15k, i obv jam from sb and he passes.. I jam every hand until shortie has about 6k remaining and 5k in on the bb, when the 2nd guy folds from the button and i fold he shouts for collusion! lol

If you had less chips you would snap-call in a second. The fact is you probably have the best hand here and could well be dominating a smaller pair. No doubt a reasonable player is going to use the shorty situation to squeeze you off your hand so it's a critical moment. Villain wants control of this situation and so do I. So I call.

Not saying you're wrong..but calling doesn't mean you're in control of the situation..the jam means he is.

go on, tell the world lol. keep quiet ffs!!

Posted by: boldie

His jam can be seen as him asking whether you are going to submit to him controlling the situation, not that he's got control just yet. There are only 5 better starting hands than yours so calling puts you firmly back in control of the situation most of the time. People would snap-call FTW here if it was HU. Trying to ladder 3-handed can often lead to later all-ins with worse than this.

Mantis - if you want to improve your poker, I suggest you think about money a bit more.

Push ftw

I call in this spot probs.  Usual players will jam 22+ and QJ+ in this spot i'd imagine.


Never, you're giving him the option to fold a tonne of hands that would re-jam you that you have crushed.  If you open jam he would probs fold 22-66, hands that are likely to jam on you if you make a standard open.

I think the problem is that it might be a fold even if you were certain villain had overcards

That's my thinking here as well. Like I said, I could very well be wrong folding here but I don't see how we are in control of the situation when we have to call for our entire stack.

Lol, Alex is clearly the villain this hand.

Anyone limping pre rather than standard open raise?

As played I make the hero call, thinking that the villain is shoving with any 2 and trying to use the shortie as leverage hoping the middle stack can fold.

if im open raising with this hand in this situation i am calling 100% of the time because i would figure the villain to be shoving a whole load here (metagame or whetever its called plus you only have 20 odd bb so opening to fold is not in my M.O. Get it called

true..he probably shoved with his 2-5 off and is stunned at the call :)

limping with a view to re-shoving the flop if someone raises? just limping is awful here.

bit harsh imo. i think mantis has it spot on, but all these different views makes poker teh winnah!

Yeah he came to the right conclusion but my word he managed to spout some utter crap in his reasoning!

Submitting to controlling the situation??!? wtf calling puts you back in control wtf???

gl in bristol mate!

So would you call if you knew villain had AK?  I think this is a mistake (but I'm the only one who has attempted any calcs so I'm happy to admit that I might be wrong)

dunno if i still call if i know he has AK, in a bigger tourney with bigger $ gaps then i fold, but my main point is hero knows that the villain is shoving a whole load here, so should raise to call or open fold

He can just push (and virtually always take the blinds) which might be the best in this specific situation where he isn't interested in getting into a pot with a slightly worse hand.

no way, were getting all hands were dominating to fold with the same reasoning behind the shove. id sooner open fold than open shove.

Definitly. Alex clearly pushed with his o/p and got called by the 9s which made trips and busto'd him.UL Alex

Posted by: doubleup

doubleup - if you want to improve your poker, I suggest you think about money a bit less.

When your oppo pushes here it is going to be because of the situation a whole lot of the time. You may use the circumstances to justify a fold is the right play but I see them as a good enough reason to call. Villain is going to be using the shorty to pile on the pressure every chance he gets. 3-handed if he can get you to fold a very big hand like this god only knows when you will stand up and play a pot. Your oppo is looking to win it before it gets to HU and you are just going to let him. If he is going to get you to fold because you're thinking about the money then he is playing very good poker against you.

Just because of this specific chipev/$ev situation I don't think you should be applying standard play logic here - raising and calling is pretty much relying on him restealing with rags and bad aces.  There are plenty of cards that he would legitimately reraise here with that we would have to fold to (in this specific situation) if he turned them face up.  

Mantis provide me with ICM equity when you fold and when you call and win.  Provide me with villains range that makes a call profitable.  Then you will be thinking about money and your poker will improve.

When you guys are analysing these pots to such extent, what is the clock doing?

Yeah you're right, lets just not bother with a PHA board eh.

I really do feel sorry for you Rooks. It seems you have a great problem with me and not quite sure why. TBH I arnt really bothered either. Have a nice day.

xx

This is a fair point imo, this is another dislike i have with ipoker with no extra time available (i'm not sure how much time it's) but it certainly isn't enough for you to have all thoughts needed to sometimes assess what's the correct play to make.

PS I wouldn't make the correct 1 anyway so it's not a problem for me.

I don't think just limping here is bad, it disguises the strength of our hand and it gives us options to re-access were we are in the hand, I don't think the big stack shoves to win the 2k we put in i think he probably raises and then I am looking to shove.  99 is not the worse hand to play a 3 handed flop with.   

Posted by: doubleup

doubleup you are 3-handed and in an exploitable situation. If your calculation-heavy mindset is urging you to fold you will be completely exploitable in this format. Jibba jabba about equity is only a smokescreen to hide behind while this guy picks you up and puts you in his pocket for the rest of the game.

You are only behind to 5 hands and Villain isn't pushing like this with A-A or K-K. Worst case scenario is 50% ftw and with the money already in the pot there is no reason to contemplate folding. Unless you believe your cautious, fold-happy approach to 3-handed no-limit poker is going to give you a future edge that is so much better than this one.

LOL, I remember when you felt the need to try and ridicule me in the chatbox on Crypto before, for something which i am still completely oblivious to! And lets face it, even you expressed concern/disgust when someone detailed your behaviour on a previous thread when names were witheld to protect YOUR image!

As for my point above, well that was just a point which is true.. We all make decision's at the computer - within 30 seconds on most sites, and then we post them on here if we feel we went wrong/right. You might aswell post on every thread in this board where someone comes up with maths based answers, putting in ranges etc into calculators and finding out whether it really was +/- ev.

I have no Image to live up to. I am me, always have been always will be. Best way IMHO.

rotflmfao

 ;popcorn; ;boldie;

this sums up the direction of the thread

As for the ridicule. At I guess I think you refer to when you were saying you are a Pro and I asked what you deemed a pro. ? and does this mean we are all Pro's in every job we do. Well yes I guess so. You were right we are all professional in our jobs.

having thought about this for longer, i would go as far to say that opening/folding here is a big mistake, borderline tez. Raise call is defo the most +ev play

shoving = no because we get loads of hands that shove on us in this situation out and we are turning 99 into a bluff
limping = no because we get bluffed off a lot of flops by villain after inevitably the shortstack waits for a clash
open folding = never ever
opening/folding = very weak were playing 3 handed we have 99, come on peeps with the situation here i know a lot of players who would be shoving ATC here

Mantis - either you are extraordinarily stupid or you have some congenital mental defect that makes it impossible for your brain to assimilate written words into thoughts when these thoughts conflict with your opinions.  

Do you honestly think that I don't believe that this is a call if the only consideration was amassing chips?  

Why do you think I am waffling about ICM and $ equity and ranges?  Could it be that in some situations in tournament poker the obvious answer isn't always the right one?

your right, but this isnt one of those situations imo

Like I said, if you think SB or BB will raise pre-flop I don't mind your limp as you can shove on him then..but just limping to see a flop with pocket 9's at the end stages of a tourney I just don't like.

ok I'll try another approach- do you agree this is a fold if he has 2 overcards?

Posted by: doubleup

doubleup it is that additional criteria that the Villain is using to pressure you out of the hand and ultimately out of contention. So while I recognise the additional elements of the situation I am not prepared to use them as a crutch to limp away from this confrontation. I repeat...those additional elements build a stronger case for calling rather than folding.

I would say as well that amassing chips is a pretty fundamental requirement of winning tournaments. And you have a very good chance to amass all the chips right now.

You may consider my strat stupid but once I know you will fold almost every hand because of your own laddering thought process you would be facing a lot of heat. So you're only folding here to get stepped on. I'm not folding the best hand to 2 overs. Are you folding to 6-6?

cba to reread the entire thread but I know that the open/fold has at least been considered. I don't like it and am probs calling here but-

if we're thinking of open/folding would we not be better off opening for less than 3.5 BB?

certainly not, i have money invested and its a 50/50 for basically the tourney

yes..good point.

Using ICM equity I think it is a fold - your equity is $1334 if you fold and vs any 2 overs its 1306.  (ok a bit closer than I thought.....)

ok I'll go for the congenital defect option.

i could not bring myself to open/fold 99 3 handed vs imo, a huge range, i'd feel ashamed to fold it tbh

Posted by: doubleup

With the imo WORST case scenario this close why are we folding again?

emmm no there are 5 worse scenarios, but the point is it is a fold vs overcards despite the fact that we have 8bbs in dead money which is certainly not something that the little men inside your head would believe.

Posted by: doubleup

You are getting really upset that I want to call this bet doubleup, please don't. With equity at $1334 vs $1306 lets just say i'm gonna go crazy and gamble the $28 that he doesn't have one of those five hands in the hope of winning $2,000. A smaller pair or a low suited Ace is a better match for Villains insta-spaz-push than A-A i would think.

Calling prevents the indignity of being rolled over like a biaaatch as an extra bonus.

end thread/

errr no I think pushing is better than raise/calling - you need 64% equity for raise/calling to be superior to pushing - so he'd have to be eg pushing with any pair, any ace, any broadway, any suited.

Posted by: doubleup

Yes, I think that's a good indication of Villain's range. Do you want to join the call ftw club now? I promise that when we call everything is going to be alright.

Obv with equal stacks its a snap call, but i didnt have time to really get into the problem in the hand timeframe. I was hero and i did fold, mainly coz it was such a fast all-in, with no thought on villains behalf which stunk of AK/AQ 1010/JJ type hand and i (incorrectly) had not adjusted to his approach. I think in hindsight it was a call, but i just felt like it was a meh spot, that obv decent players use a lot but I forget when its being used v me. Deffo shoulda raised a little less pre too (poss 2.5 does sam job). cheers for input, but i think the jamming ranges you guys put up are in need of a tweak (22+/QJs+ is slightly too loose imo).

Where did you finish Alex? Also what would you do with 2-2 if you were villain?

fold coz he's a pussy


oh, and 3rd obv

lol - when I'm faced with the choice of doing thing a) which carries almost no risk and thing b) which relies exactly on my opponent choosing to do what you believe everyone is always doing, I'll stick with a).  

Posted by: doubleup
 

I wouldn't say folding 9-9 carries no risk. You risk looking back in hindsight thinking you should have called for one.

2nd, with 22 in his shoes i jam along with any 2 playable tbh. He's not me though and i think he prolly open folds 22-55 and QJ/KJ.

In that case your fold is correct

Raise pre, call shove. Villain's range should include all pairs imo. There are only five better hands than ours in the deck and we are three handed!

I would call, 39k more to win 94k to virtually win the tourney...   When 60-70% of the time we'll be flipping, 25% of the time he'll have an underpair, 5% he'll have an over...

Thing a was pushing and thing b was raising and calling a push.  Pushing is def better in this particular chip situation.  Raising and calling a push is normally best.

hmmmm, not sure how you managed to quantify this, but id like to see the breakdown.

wet finger, raise finger to the wind...pluck figures out of the air.

No calculations to it, but those are the figures that i'd be thinkin if i have 25 seconds to process it and click the mouse...

As opposed to hindsight, pokerstove, less emotional involvement etc etc...

QFT

Posted by: TheChipPrince

Yes very good.

Anyway whatever pokerstove would regard as correct I would say we all agree this is a tight decision. Personally when it's close like this my preference is to make the call. I think coming forward is the way to play 3-handed poker and especially in this shorty situation. I raised here, and I don't care how much money is involved, i'm not giving the pot up holding the 6th nuts. I might if the guy is a rock, but not some general scally. No way. Personally I tilt very hard about giving-up a winning hand when the call is close and 3 handed those chances are not common. Being more cautious and folding suggests that opportunity is just around the corner. And it might be. But having been bullied off this pot with the 6th best starting hand, 3,000 in blinds every 3 hands, few starting hands to play and a push-happy short-stack I don't know when a situation is going to crop up that's much better than this one. And it's debatable whether your chances of winning will have increased by then. In 10 minutes you will be very glad to call a push with 9-9 but you will be calling to survive rather than to win.

Anyway it's more of a control thing because i'm not playing poker to fold hands worried about going out when i think i'm ahead. And I don't think that's a bad attitude to have in this particular situation.

lol at this thread. Raise to 5k, fold to the shove.

Can we have more please Lloyd?

open shoving is better

we want to dance with shorty, and shoving stops him dancing his mediorce hands.

this is why opening for 5K is better too.

Did think about that, but shorty knows he has no fold eq, so will prob call with any hands that he pushes.

Posted by: AlexMartin


FYP.

Yes. This is the basic theory because we want to force our oppo to make a mistake and pushing may prevent that from happening. doubleup makes a fair point that the shorty may well call anyway but what about the other guy, the guy we're actually playing. It's maybe a little inconsistent to say making a normal raise gets guy A to blunder but not guy B. So we raise to 5k because we want shorty to dance with mediocre hands, but it will also encourage the CL to dance with mediocre hands as well. If we want to win the tournament why would we allow our oppo's mistakes to go unpunished?

I'm with Mantis (apart from calling allin to control the situation!).

Well all I can say is that I'd love to be the short stack at this table with guys like you determined to give me shitloads of money.

lol such a quality bit of mantis faf, going in the scrapbook

Posted by: Royal Flush

You have a mantis scrapbook?

Anyways, if you force your oppo to make a mistake you are in control. If he forces you to make a mistake he is in control.

When the CL pushes in this example his bet asks whether you are going to make a mistake. My opinion is that folding is the mistake that he wants me to make. If I call and he shows e.g. 6-6 then he has made the mistake not me. I've called and yet controlled. Yeah baby.

Anyway James, if you would like some more stuff for your book like photos or whatever then please ask.

Does it? I think its just him nicking the pot....i play such a less theatrical game to you though!

less theatre but more drama
CONTROL

Posted by: Royal Flush

I thought you liked theatrical James? I read somewhere that you are a big fan of the Village People and most would agree they are quite theatrical.

You read wrong, James is one of the Village People!

I like rugby as well, doesn't mean i want to get knocked to the ground whilst playing poker.

Raise to 5k -> beat him into the middle -> win the hand -> lose HU to shorty

Made me giggle

I'm just learning some ICM stuff, and worked it out as a fold.

Calling + Winning = 49.509% EQ
Calling + Losing = 0% EQ
Folding = 35.411% EQ

equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    44.831%     44.35%    00.48%         888446904      9690270.00   { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1:    55.169%     54.69%    00.48%        1095568236      9690270.00   { 99 }

So with hero's 99 has 55.169% equity.

Calling equity = (0.55169 * 0.49509) + (0.44831 * 0.0)
                   = 0.2731362021

Folding equity = 0.35411

(0.273 - 0.354) * $3750= -$303.75

Calling loses us $303.75.

If longy or some ICM whizz could have a scan at that it would be great.


ahh, [  ] wp sir.

I've just started to work out what I should be calling with in these types of situations also - I'm not what you'd call a natural when it comes to the maths but I been using a method in article written by bond18 from 2+2 which is relatively straight forward to follow....

Money in the pot = 55k (2+1+7+45)
Amount to call = 39k

Equity to break even with given pot odds = 39/(55+39)  = 41%

So you need 41% against his range to break even which using Le Knaves range above, makes this an easy call??

Hmm.. As I said, only just learning this so prob be making a mistake - LeKnave's calcs seem waaaay more advanced than mine :)...Appreciate anyone correcting me ... or even explainging the differences between Le Knaves working and mine... ta

Your right for a cash game but in tournaments chips are not linear, if you win all the chips you don't win all the money, just first place. This means that each chip you win is worth slightly less than the one before it.

As such its a +ive call in terms of chips but if you convert it to $ rather than chips its -ive

OK,  so I shouldn't be using this method at all in tourny's?? Or is it just at the end of the tourny, when as you say chips have depreciated in value in terms of $$  ...Ie earlier in the tourrny, when chip accumualtion is what we wanting I could use this for working out my calling range against a short stack push??  Or should I be using LeKnaves method full stop???

thks

I think Villain's range is wider than the one LeKnave uses.

Yeah early in comps treat it as a cash game, you can even make a case for making -ive equity calls because you can then use a large stack far more effectively but the maths on that is super complex and requires pretty damn accurate edge calculations that would be near impossible to work out anyway.

Right nice one ... Thanks for that

Yeah done the calcs myself and this is correct.

lol, u surely joshing?  pretty incredible that folding is correct even with this wide a range.

Cheers mate.

You've never arrived already boys.

lol, sat nav, yo.

bailed on nando's though.

You don't think he'd shove J-T, suited connectors and most aces here?