blonde poker forum

Had some differing opinions on the below scenarios from the guys I play with live.  Thought I'd get some more opinions - I won't tell you what I did as I don't want to cloud your opinions:


Scenario:  5k WSOP event - 73 players remain, 72 get paid.  $5k entry and 72nd place pays in the region of $9k.  Prizes do not go up steeply - 40th spot pays about $13k and 30th pays about $22k.

Your image is fairly tight - you have restolen twice when there were about 90 players remaining to keep head above water.  Blinds are 800/1600 with a running ante of 300, so about 5k per round.  Your stack is about 21k - you are one of the table shorties, but there are a number of micro stacks on other tables with stacks between 5k and 10k.  Two of the big stacks on your table are playing the bubble really well - they are putting the medium stacks to decisions for all their chips.

The 2 scenarios I encountered during the 90 minute (!) hand for hand are:

1) Big stack (100k+) makes it 6k UTG.  You have  Kh Ac on the button.  Action?
2) You get  9h 9d UTG - Action?

Fold Fold. Im a ladderer though.

AK push, 99 I fold.

ur playing a 5k event. did you satellite in and need the money or are you rolled for 5k events (realise this is unlikely). Whatever, im deffo jamming the AK, 99 is tough, prolly a fold.

This is so the move, but is also so easier said than done i've you've won a SAT in and 9k means a lot...

damn,i agree with baldie

I bought in direct, but a sensible bankroll manager would say I am not correctly rolled for it, so missing out on the 9k will impact my ability to play other big tournaments later in the year.

Are these replies levels?

Shove Shove and they aren't even close.

A-K deffo push. Big stack playing the bubble well gives this push added merit.


Yes but on the flip side folding the A-K will leave you with a really nasty feeling that will haunt you forever.

The range for the big stack to call is pretty wide here if you shove the AK - he's getting a pretty good price and can comfortably live with losing the hand?  You happy to spin it up AK v J9 with the shallow payout structure?

Personally I think shoving the unopened pots with 99 is a better move than shoving AK and getting (probably) called.  

You forget that I'm very tight though.

Posted by: DungBeetle

This can't really be seen as a bad thing. If you are a poker player you will need to push here. UTG can call with any Ace and we cannot not want this. Waiting to die is a wretched feeling to be avoided at all costs. Far worse than the pain of bubbling imo.

I agree - if you are playing for 1st it's a shove every time, but my view was that the difference between finishing 72nd was virtually the same as finishing 40th, so I'd rather gamble with a 40% shot when I was on a freeroll (and maybe pick up a better spot), than a 70% shot (if he has a smaller ace) or 50% shot (when he has a small pair) when it was going to cost me 9k to do it.  Maybe it's the wrong way to think about it - I dunno.  I passed both the hands here, and also JJ and TT to heavy action pre-flop round about the same period.

It's the first time I've been around the bubble in a major tournament so perhaps my inexperience showed - or maybe I'm just a rock ;)

[  ] would play the torn with a priority being cashing>winning.

shove, shove.

Yeah seriously.  Save your $5k for a smaller tournament if you're considering folding these

My goal isn't to "play to win" or "play to cash", it's to maximize my $ equity in every spot available, this means going all in in both these spots.  You're probably giving up like $1k in equity not shipping in that AK and the 99 is probably similar but a bit smaller.  It means you're basically paying the other people in the tournament money when you fold these hands because the equity isn't coming to you instead.

Folding lowers variance, it's like insurance.  Always -EV but you'll want to lower variance if it's a large proportion of your bankroll (e.g. house insurance, tournament which is big to you etc)

"Yeah seriously.  Save your $5k for a smaller tournament if you're considering folding these"

That's a pretty unhelpful comment and totally unconstructive.  I probably won't post on these boards again as it's just not worth the effort with some of the people on here.

I was merely trying to get a discussion on whether the payout structure of a tournament should dictate how you play the bubble.  Never mind.    

hehe sorry don't mind me i'm socially inept.  Just saying from a profitability point of view these are both pretty clear shoves.  It wouldn't be too hard to model the maths behind it but it's a lot of effort to prove a known result.

Shovel both, im happier about open shoving the 99 than 3bet shoving the ak.

there are 2 ways to approach this

1) if you're really that bothered about just cashing then you really should just be sat at the bar drinking beer right now. it's h4h so no need to slow up play to burst the bubble. put you feet up, get a corona and watch everyone else. if there are a number of microstacks then your probs better than 80% to cash right now so you should be passing atc anyway, might as well do it from a nice seat at the bar.

2) ship your monies in and try and win the thing.

1 could be correct in a one off instance

I have to say I'm pretty surprised that not one person has mentioned the payout structure of the tournament, and simply dismisses anyone who decides to fold as trying to fold into the money and being some kind of nonce.

Where do you draw the line on structure?  How about

1st = 6 million
2nd-72nd = 9k

Surely with the above AK is a fold no?

Well the 99 would be clear shoves in both.  The AK is still a clear shove in both but you could definately fold a larger range in the satellite structure.

This is a wsop event therefore will have a relative standard mtt payout structure. Neither is close enough for the payout structure to make a difference. I would shove both of these on a sng bubble, which has lot less linear payout structure than any mtt.

The only reason you get people saying fold is a mixture of 2 things:

1) 9K is alot of money to them and they are not prepared to risk bubbling.

2) They don't the mathematics behind equity decisions on the bubble.

Both of the above are not good poker imo.

£6M is probably a bad example fwiw, it makes the $9k completely trivial since your stack is worth like well over $100k so taking a coinflip with overlay or whatever is sooooo huge in $ equity

Posted by: DungBeetle

The important thing to consider is that most of the players still left in the tournament will be having bubble considerations that will lead them to make poor decisions and play badly. This means that you have an excellent opportunity to play well. In the A-K example it is true that the big stack has enough chips to call and can live with a loss. These considerations could very well lead him to blunder by calling.

I can't live with the mentality that the big stack might make a mistake so I better fold.

It is more scary to make your plays when you are short. It is for everyone. But your edge comes from the ability to make the right play anyway. Each play like this builds your overall poker mentality. If we fold here what do we do next time we are in a similar position? Fold again to limp into the money? Suddenly you will find you are a weak uncompetetive player.

Folding doesn't make you a nonce by the way. Biting the bullet and shoving gives you the edge. Not just here I might add but generally when playing poker.

"I would shove both of these on a sng bubble, which has lot less linear payout structure than any mtt."

SNG bubble would be 4 handed - having 99 in that scenario is a lot more appealing than UTG on a 9 handed table surely.  Also the difference between moving up just 3 spots and winning is huge.  In WSOP, places 50-70 pay virtually the same.

True though with shoving positionally the maths actually doesn't change massively from co to utg on a 9 handed table. Not enough in my experience to make folding 99 +ev.

Check out the book "Kill Everyone".  It goes into great detail about bubble factors and why calling off AK on the bubble of a SNG is so so so much closer than a WSOP tournament (it's usually still a clear call though, there are scenarios where you can fold AK and even AA!).  It isn't just relative hand value we are worried about.  There are three things you work out when calculating something like this.

$ Equity if call and win
$ Equity if call and lose
$ Equity if fold

If the weighted values of equity if call and win and equity if call and lose are greater than our equity if we fold, then we should call.  In SNGs you get times where you are by and large guarenteed a cash place if you fold.  Although less obvious in a tournament you also get situations like this (this might even be one) but you also have far more potential to make more $ further down the line.  That is why in this situation your $EV_call is likely to far exceed your $EV_fold.  In a SNG your $EV of calling and winning is very much limited since the value of chips is diminishing as your stack becomes a larger proportion of chips in play.

Shove em both, unless you're homeless.

yeah i was well wrong yo. they are both shoves with 5k in the middle.

Hate being in the majority but yeah I shove both!

Yep, shoving both 100%

Playing to win the torn.

[  ] wud care about the bubble.

Its the most helpful comment anyone has made, clearly by playing in a $5k event you played badly, its not a good idea to raise your stakes and then play worse than usual, unless you are super rich

really really tough spot-with it costing 5k a round I think you probably have to shove but I dont think folding is too bad either-what are we getting called with that we're beating- AK, AQsuited maybe???you obviously have a strong hand pushing from UTG so to get called with oppo's having a large chunk at stake-they need to be superstrong IMO.  I like Sunday8PM am a ladderer  ;) (I realise every book says strong agression and taking shots is the way to go for the wins and 1st place but I think tournament survival is understated at times too)

totally agree.

ps  if 5k is above your bankroll, apply above on the staking board for 2009 ;hide;

The very serious problem with survival mode is that it is a massively exploitable strat. It is much better to see surviving as doing what it takes to stay out of the mess going on below you. I would rate my chances to survive much better if I had my survival mode oppos outchipped rather than being the surviving shorty myself. Maintaining a shortstack means your surival is less likely rather than more likely. If you don't take your good chances to survive then you are actually swapping survival for life support. If you don't push a decent stack with A-K you will often find yourself pushing half that amount with A-8 a little while later. Every hand you fold you loose chips and f/e, doing nothing while this happens is not really surviving.

yes I agree with your points-but I was actually talking about the 99 hand when you are UTG- the AK is a more straightforward shove for me- the initial raiser is a bullying large stack and could have a wide range but the 99 hand to me is a little bit more of a decision- you have the whole table behind you to act! although your points are relavent to both situations- folding UTG is expected unless you have a V.Good hand(which this is) so your not exactly giving away that your in survival mode by folding.  like I said 9 times out of 10 I probably shove but I reckon there is definately a case for folding this 9's UTG also given the situation.

I am happier with the A-K situation myself. UTG raise-re-raise all-in gets the blinds turbo-mucking blind and so it's much more likely that if the chips go in it's because UTG makes a mistake and calls light. When pushing with 9-9 it's unlikely that if the chips go in someone will have made a mistake. So the A-K is going to be easier to win if you are called. If I didn't have enough for a steak in my pocket I might fold the nines myself. The microstack-factor is very distracting at this point imo. If I'm ss of the event though they are fist-pump shoved.

Surely stalling for max time to see if anyone busted would be your first move!!

"clearly by playing in a $5k event you played badly"

Cheers Royal Flush - like I said - waste of time posting on here.  I play for 2 days and post two scenarios which I still think are marginal near the bubble and get this sort of response.  I might add when were deep stacked early on I busted 2 big names, but I'm sure you don't give a monkeys about that and stick the needle in, rather than making more constructive points like the kind made by Mantis. 

Anyhow, I'm unregistering from blonde now as I'd rather post on a more constructive community, so feel free to slag me off till your heart's content.....

If you consider or atleast think about what Flushy is actually saying, I am sure you'd appreciate the comment.

p.s. Nobody cares about the names you bust really..it doesn't matter who you bust, all that matters is that you get someone's, anyone's, chips.

Did you cash?

Sigh - I can't even work out how to unregister.

Of course I await a torrent of abuse for critisizing one of the members of the clique, Boldie at the head of the queue of course.  And I have considered what Flushy has said - and it's a valid questiom - does playing a tournament above your normal buy in make you play too timidly?  I don't have an issue with the point - it's the condescending manner in which it was made.

yes I cashed - I folded both the hands described and came somewhere in the 40s in the end.

My timidity was partly because the previous year I was near the bubble with an above average stack and busted out.  I shoved over a serial raiser with essentially a bluff - the guy thought for 5 minutes, said "lets gamble" and called with 2c4c and I was gone.

N1, but we need 50p from your winnings for this bad beat story!  ;)

Not sure it really counts as a bad beat as I only had 8d6d myself ;)

Don't stop using the forum because you don't like some of the opinion DungBeetle. The scenarios you have posted were definitely interesting and created a good discussion. Royal Flush certainly means well but he is a firm advocate of tough love. I believe a gang of men in Brighton with black moustaches and leather caps taught him this tactic. He doesn't mean the things he says and deffo has the best interests of other members at heart. I heard that he can actually weep at the keyboard before posting.

Get out of the forum what you want and don't let anyone sidetrack you from this goal.

i refuse, whatever the stakes, to ever do this in my entire life. you might as well give up tournament poker if ur mentality is like this imo.

Isn't it hand-for-hand anyway?

yeah but if some1 bust's ur gtd money @ wsop.

I agree with Alex here fwiw.  Tilts me beyond belief when ppl do it.

+1

I total agree with this post. I don't post hands on here normally, because from reading so much of the answers, I know what I did wrong anyway and don't need to post.

You have started a really good thread here Dung and don't be put off blonde because you don't like the tone of some peoples answers, it is tough love, and when I first joined blonde I though wtf when I saw some of them, but the more I read and got involved, the more they make sense. You asked a very good question, and got some excellent replys, all of them constructive, but not to the tone you are used to seeing maybe.

There are a lot of very good experienced poker players on blonde (I'm not one of them), who will give you an answer as they see fit, and have a wealth of knowledge that you can pick up for free. It's not a clique as you call it, its a forum, and a very good one at that. Don't disappear, have a look at the hand analysis board and you will see that there is some good information there for all to see..

Well done on your cash, your situation was unique to you, but don't discard or take offence at the advice..

Hate me for it, but if I'm playing in a WSOP event, I'd have qualified on the cheap for it and I'd have been very tempted to fold to the money here with both hands.  In a buy in that I normally play, I wouldn't have folded the AK preflop, the 9's maybe.

If I was in the WSOP playing a $5k event I'd be way out of my usual bankroll and playing purely for the experience and hoping to get a run. I would've saved up for a year and gone to Vegas to spend a fortune and have something to tell the kids dog about.

It's easy for everyone to say shove shove but when you're there and playing above your bankroll then it's very difficult. I don't mean that the guy can't afford the $5k but a $4k profit is a lot if you're just there for the experience. I assume that a lot are in the same situation if they're on an hour and a half bubble!!

I would also see the $9k prize as almost being my entry in to the ME so that makes this a satellite bubble where AK would be a definite fold. Not sure about the 9's might be able to do something with them.

If you see this as an experience thing then I'd say fold both hands and try to cash for the ME experience. If you're playing within your normal bankroll then firstly I'd say shove both and secondly how did you get that low in the first place?

I hope this doesn't make me sound like a poker weakling. In most tournaments I'm a massive bubble bully and enjoy making people fold good hands. In this event with a good stack I'd be doing the same. With the short stack however it's hugely different.

In any event within my bankroll it's an instashove both hands. Don't care about the cash, I'm only after the win!!!!!

no it doesn't, not at all. I completely understand making the fold if you satted in or you saved up all year for it...but from a "what should you do in this poker situation" perspective i would always shove the AK (the 9's I am not too sure about)

When you're taking a shot to the bigtime, at least give yourself a shot.  These two decisions are so straightforward it's not going to be hard at all for me to pull the trigged.  If i'm considering a multi street bluff against Johnny Chan, well thats another story and much harder to pull off.

 ;iagree;

Definitely. From a purely poker perspective AK is a definite shove. I'd even be pushing the 99 if I was this short. You need the chips.

Looking back at my blog I'm messed up the stack/blinds.  Both are double - so I have 40kish but with double blinds it's pretty much the same situation.  

The reason I am so short is because I have been overcautious, after busting out of the 2k the previous year when being over-agressive with a medium stack with about 20 left to the bubble.  My table has been very active with very few pots getting to me unraised, and in the 2 hours up to the hand for hand I had no cards at all.  The only pots I was able to win was shoving over frequent raisers with nothing (which I did twice) and they passed.  That is also how I ended up busting out a few hours later when the original raiser (the eventual winner) had AK.

My stack hit a peak of about 90k with about 60 left, but even that was significantly below the average at the time.

I am finding this thread interesting, i have NEVER open folded 99 except in a sat scenario, do people actually play that tight?

This is the point of the discussion, obviously you should be ramming both but if its significant money to you then there are reasons to fold, the thing is you shouldn't get in these spots! Play tournaments where the money doesnt make you play bad.

That's the thing about when you've satted into something like a WSOP event. The prize pay-out might mean an awful lot to someone (£4500 pays a lot of bills). This is also why the bubble will be soo heavily exploitable by people for whom the 9k$ doesn't mean as much..everyone playing outside their comfort zone(most people there) will be folding a wide range of hands, they'd be pushing with in their local tenner tourney.

It's not the money that tightened me up - 9k is an extra tournament for me to play in the year but that's about it - there will be plenty next year.

Blew good position in WSOP 2007, blew 3rd place in NPL Main Event (you played in that one I think Flushy), blew 9th biggest chip stack in Irish Open 2008 at start of day 2.  All zero cashes.  Wasnt' really enjoying the "blowup" reputation tbh.  This was an important monkey to get off my back.  

I'm still not convinced about the 99, but if you are adamant about it, I hope the above gives you an idea of why I was quite keen to cash this time.

Have you ever open folded 99?

Yeah i know that's what i am saying, people shouldn't play a comp like this if they are going to give up when they get near the money its the definition of dead money!

For sure i am not saying there aren't reasons, i have done it before, i would never do it now though as i know how bad it is.

NPL was great i think i came 33rd.....out of 35...

Yeah - I remember you were there briefly.  Only 35 runners was shocking.  I was on your table.  About............2/3 seats to your right.

Yes and long may they continue  ;D


But it's the WSOP. There will be thousands of people there who have come purely for the holiday and the experience of playing these big events. They will have saved or satted and getting their money back will be a huge bonus. They didn't expect it and now they have a chance to get it so there's probably 60 people playing super tight. The other 13 are exploiting them and getting themselves set up ready for the final stages.

I'm planning on going to the WSOP next year and I'm sure that if I got to this situation I would find the fold to make the cash. But I'll be there for the experience. The £10k it costs will be budgetted for but if I can bring something back then I'll be happy.

I think while writing this I've changed my mind. If I go with the knowledge that I am probably losing £10k then surely it doesn't matter about scraping the cash? I should just play my normal game and be shoving any 2 decent cards in any unopened pot? I hope I can find the balls to do it when I get there but I'm not 100% sure I would.

Tough one Dung. Hope I don't have the same problem.

I don't think i won a pot all game, finally got action with a hand and el blondie got there if i remember, fun times.....

Never be worried about blowing big stacks, its part of what happens when you play to maximise your $EV

If you go willing to lose £10k and lose the £10k then its no real bother, if you go there and get a shot at winning $5m then happy days! I would hate to look back it and say i sacrificed my chance at $5m so i could get back what i had decided i was happy to lose.

Don't know about being happy losing it but I know what you mean.

That's why I changed my mind half way through.

I don't know how it would be if I was actually there?

Hopefully I'll get the chance to find out in around 11 months time  ;D

Good thread Dung. See it gets better. Everyone's nice really. Even Flushy  ;whistle;

"I don't think i won a pot all game, finally got action with a hand and el blondie got there if i remember, fun times....."

You did win a pot mate! - Below is an extract from my blog........

James Dempsey has been crippled and he is down to 1,800 so he pushes UTG. 5 players before me call and I look down at JJ. I push to isolate and the rest fold. Dempsey's Q6 wins and I've missed a big opportunity to boost my stack. We break for dinner and I'm feeling a bit deflated on 6k chips.

You were hardly inflated on 7.8k to be fair  ;)

Ah lol yes i remember that, the whole table called and i asked someone to please squeeze!! Happily you did and i got like 6-1 on a 30% shot :D

Then i ran into DC, sigh

Highlight of the comp for me was Matt Dale asking Tilly if she was going to make Bound 2....

There were 5 callers of Flushy's shove, so pot would have put me up to nearly 20k!

"Highlight of the comp for me was Matt Dale asking Tilly if she was going to make Bound 2...."

LOL  :)

I've never open folded 22, let alone 99.

Good thread however.

there's love in the thread now :)

The point about bills etc is a valid one. But the op states that the money he wins would be reinvested back into poker later on in the year. This intention means playing optimally right here and now should certainly be his objective. Taking 9k and using it to try and hopefully get into this same position again at some time in the future lacks a lot of appeal for me. Because you are in this position right now. Sacrificing a good chance to ride the rollercoaster today in the hope of getting the same 5k ride again...where you will then do the right thing and play well, seems like a longer shot gamble than A-K vs whatever nonsense UTG shows. If a 4k profit drives your strat at this time then paying 5k to enter in the first place is inconsistent with your mentality towards money.

have you ever open folded anything?

having you on my right in my first big comp gave me a whole new vision on poker

you should of seen the hands i was folding till i got up the guts to reraise you with AQo

When I started playing poker there used to be a phrase called "Irish position".

This meant the first player into a pot had the best position because he had the right of the first bluff in a hand. i.e. if everyone has nothing the first bet wins it.

I always liked this idea.

*EDIT* This phrase wasn't racist or anti irish in any way. It just refered to the aggressive style of the top Irish players of the time: Padraig Parkinson, Aiden Bennett, Noel Furlong, Alan Betson and Scott Gray + loads more

well you taught me a lesson or 2, and i think when scotty came to sit on my left you taught him a few lessons too after you rererererebluffed him off a pot he couldnt wait for the table to break BABY

was that the one where u were in the cash game in brighton b4 midnight? lol

One of a few...sigh

ya but that night surely wasnt as bad as some sundays...

I read Gus Hanson loves using this tactic- its an interesting tactic that can keep people guessing your likely hand from EP as long as its not overused

p.s I would never consider playing 2's UTG in this scenario